yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 00z ICON has a bit more wintry precipitation for i95 corridor compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: RGEM…….about the same as the NAM but shift the ice west. DC escapes the ice Poor South Carolina! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 ICON unchanged basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 C'mon I wanna see snow in York Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 2 to 3 for DCA on 00z RGEM Model number 2 of the models we shouldn’t be looking at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS vs Euro 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, AU74 said: Poor South Carolina! My aunt and uncle live in Lugoff, SC outside of Columbia. I’m growing concerned for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Model number 2 of the models we shouldn’t be looking at. And the ICON is 3 right? You know, them Germans can make awesome stuff but they can’t make a sleet or ice map on their weather model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: And the ICON is 3 right? You know, them Germans can make awesome stuff but they can’t make a sleet or ice map on their weather model They do! But be careful, they've been known to start trouble. Double trouble. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 wow almost 1 1/2 inchs of ice for atlanta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ICON unchanged basically I'll take my 4 to 6 on there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Warm Nose said: Tip for our pros. This seems more relevant than 'best worst-case scenario' maps: That's lowballing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: I'll take my 4 to 6 on there lol It gave you 3.9 to 5.9 on the prior run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS with a nice thump it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 We get deathbanded on the GFS at 72 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Dumping snow at 72 in DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 They would be the Bob Chill famous white asteroids in that band. Soundings are close then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That’s a really fun couple of hours on the GFS on the front end dump for DC. White missles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The GFS usually underdoes the amount of sleet and freezing rain in the transition zone. It mostly shows rain or snow here in the evening hours, and I don't buy that at all. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 DCA gets about 0.45" up to 72 hours. The sounding at 72 is probably snow but it's borderline. Verbatim, we'd probably flip at 72-73 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Pretty much isothermal but look at that DGZ zone... tasty 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6" line is basically i66 south... then curves toward i95 corridor but probably 20 miles west Once you get out towards NW VA (Clarke and Frederick counties) 6 to 10 out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks pretty consistent. Can’t help feeling we can still see changes. That ns piece that is so key is actually comprised of two pieces, or one influenced by another. The current positions of those pieces are the NW passage and about 1000 miles in the Pacific Ocean. Laugh if you want but this still seems a long way off to me. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, Ruin said: wow almost 1 1/2 inchs of ice for atlanta? That's catastrophic. Especially if there is following winds. I'll take thundersleet for a thousand, Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Looks pretty consistent. Can’t help feeling we can still see changes. That ns piece that is so key is actually comprised of two pieces, or one influenced by another. The current positions of those pieces are the NW passage and about 1000 miles in the Pacific Ocean. Laugh if you want but this still seems a long way off to me. I’m not suggesting things will improve for us, but I agree with you. Still more curveballs coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Looks pretty consistent. Can’t help feeling we can still see changes. That ns piece that is so key is actually comprised of two pieces, or one influenced by another. The current positions of those pieces are the NW passage and about 1000 miles in the Pacific Ocean. Laugh if you want but this still seems a long way off to me. Anecdotally, this is an unusual track for a storm for DC....I recall a number of events where as we got closer the models shifted this kind of track to the west or the east to a more traditional track. Hopefully it is weaker and east. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m not suggesting things will improve for us, but I agree with you. Still more curveballs coming. I’m not suggesting they improve either. Not at all. But I’m also not saying they can’t lol. I’m only saying I think they may very well change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Deck Pic said: Anecdotally, this is an unusual track for a storm for DC....I recall a number of events where as we got closer the models shifted this kind of track to the west or the east to a more traditional track. Hopefully it is weaker and east. I’ve lived in the area since 2008 and I’m having a hard time remembering a track like this. Not saying that it can’t happen verbatim but to your point, its unusual. It’s kind of remarkable how consistent the major global OPs have been for the last two or so days. Lots of moving parts with this so it could change but we’re now within 72 hours of first flakes so time’s ticking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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