PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS with a nice thump it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 We get deathbanded on the GFS at 72 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Dumping snow at 72 in DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 They would be the Bob Chill famous white asteroids in that band. Soundings are close then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That’s a really fun couple of hours on the GFS on the front end dump for DC. White missles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The GFS usually underdoes the amount of sleet and freezing rain in the transition zone. It mostly shows rain or snow here in the evening hours, and I don't buy that at all. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Pretty much isothermal but look at that DGZ zone... tasty 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6" line is basically i66 south... then curves toward i95 corridor but probably 20 miles west Once you get out towards NW VA (Clarke and Frederick counties) 6 to 10 out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks pretty consistent. Can’t help feeling we can still see changes. That ns piece that is so key is actually comprised of two pieces, or one influenced by another. The current positions of those pieces are the NW passage and about 1000 miles in the Pacific Ocean. Laugh if you want but this still seems a long way off to me. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, Ruin said: wow almost 1 1/2 inchs of ice for atlanta? That's catastrophic. Especially if there is following winds. I'll take thundersleet for a thousand, Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Looks pretty consistent. Can’t help feeling we can still see changes. That ns piece that is so key is actually comprised of two pieces, or one influenced by another. The current positions of those pieces are the NW passage and about 1000 miles in the Pacific Ocean. Laugh if you want but this still seems a long way off to me. I’m not suggesting things will improve for us, but I agree with you. Still more curveballs coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m not suggesting things will improve for us, but I agree with you. Still more curveballs coming. I’m not suggesting they improve either. Not at all. But I’m also not saying they can’t lol. I’m only saying I think they may very well change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Deck Pic said: Anecdotally, this is an unusual track for a storm for DC....I recall a number of events where as we got closer the models shifted this kind of track to the west or the east to a more traditional track. Hopefully it is weaker and east. I’ve lived in the area since 2008 and I’m having a hard time remembering a track like this. Not saying that it can’t happen verbatim but to your point, its unusual. It’s kind of remarkable how consistent the major global OPs have been for the last two or so days. Lots of moving parts with this so it could change but we’re now within 72 hours of first flakes so time’s ticking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 @clskinsfanhow you feeling up that way man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 also worth noting that the GFS is considerably warmer at the start of Sunday than most other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Buddy1987 said: @clskinsfanhow you feeling up that way man? He’s torn between beatdown, hammered, crushed and catastrophic ice storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, high risk said: also worth noting that the GFS is considerably warmer at the start of Sunday than most other guidance. If we could have euro thermals and GFS thump, the area would be really happy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs looks torchy at onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 FWIW 8 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: He’s torn between beatdown, hammered, crushed and catastrophic ice storm. I'd venture to say he's got something good picked out to drink too HAHA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: FWIW I take and run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: FWIW These maps literally look like layers of consciousness...and something out of Dr. Seuss, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: FWIW I just don't see that with this track but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 LOL DT has literally had the same map style for like 20 years. You gotta love it. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Warm Nose said: I just don't see that with this track but we'll see. Compare it to the euro snow map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: FWIW I see DT returned safely from Wal-Mart with a “Fischer Price My First Forecast Kit” and a box of crayons. I think the box of crayons were free with a rebate though 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: I see DT returned safely from Wal-Mart with a “Fischer Price My First Forecast Kit” and a box of crayons. I think the box of crayons were free with a rebate though Talk about crayons 10 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 30 minutes ago, yoda said: Pretty much isothermal but look at that DGZ zone... tasty If it looks like that on the GFS w/ a lower vertical resolution-- I can almost guarantee it's already sleeting. 60+ knots in the warm layer. Once the diabatic cooling potential is gone from evaporation, that mix line is going to *fly* through. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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