MN Transplant Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The NAM is much drier. Front end thump less impressive. Something to watch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Next 24-48 hours or so of the NAM will be interesting to see wrt the temp profile of this system. I always trust it most with handling that, but not sure if we're quite at the range to take its precip depiction literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Jan. 2016 was locked in from basically a week out. There was one Euro run that went south but came right back. That was an insane week. GB 16 what a storm. We KNEW we were gonna get demolished. 27 inches of snow in Dale City on a level. Plows were having such a hard time! Some of them kind of bounced off the pack lol. I was digging and digging and digging! First I made a path for my Dad's car to the street, which was in fact a wall of snow. What little the plows did, made it worse! Then my neighbor wanted me to chop thru a 7 foot drift in front of her front door and windows! My phone was going off over and over and over again! I was getting slightly tired then the other neighbors started up: You love snow, Jeb! Dig ME out! The other neighbor: All you ever do is go on and on and on about that weather forum! When are you gonna dig me out? Yeah I had talked myself right into having to dig everyone out. People joked about the so-called Jebman Standard (Dig at least 8 feet around all cars lol). I was in over my head, lol - I never realized people read American Weather Forums in my neighborhood lmao And so it went. Yeah I dug so much snow, I was digging it in my exhausted dreams, for days. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Jan. 2016 was locked in from basically a week out. There was one Euro run that went south but came right back. That was an insane week. Even jan 2016 had a hiccup run here and there that caused mini-panics. This one? This one hasn't dealt one bit of hope for something bigger for those of us on the edge since Monday. Every run, low gets pulled inland. Every time, without fail. It's frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: It looks pretty bad here but the Carolinas always seem to get the worst ice storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Nasty dry slot in WV on that run. It’s the NAM so not worth giving it a bit of attention until tomorrow night/Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 00z NAM implies borderline ice storm for Catoctin Mt. back through HGR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jebman said: GB 16 what a storm. We KNEW we were gonna get demolished. 27 inches of snow in Dale City on a level. Plows were having such a hard time! Some of them kind of bounced off the pack lol. I was digging and digging and digging! First I made a path for my Dad's car to the street, which was in fact a wall of snow. What little the plows did, made it worse! Then my neighbor wanted me to chop thru a 7 foot drift in front of her front door and windows! My phone was going off over and over and over again! I was getting slightly tired then the other neighbors started up: You love snow, Jeb! Dig ME out! The other neighbor: All you ever do is go on and on and on about that weather forum! When are you gonna dig me out? Yeah I had talked myself right into having to dig everyone out. And so it went. Yeah I dug so much snow, I was digging it in my exhausted dreams, for days. The lesson: Be careful about gushing about snow to people withim shoveling distance...lest they use your snow loving against you...with back-breaking results, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: It looks pretty bad here but the Carolinas always seem to get the worst ice storms. I've always wondered why that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: Nasty dry slot in WV on that run. It’s the NAM so not worth giving it a bit of attention until tomorrow night/Saturday. True, but what was nice was there was a SE shift with the low a bit... and no rain for DC compared to 18z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: It looks pretty bad here but the Carolinas always seem to get the worst ice storms. That is a catastrophic ice storm out here as modeled. .4 qpf and the surface never goes above freezing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I've always wondered why that is cold air damming is still pretty fierce down there and storm tracks are typically such that they get big warm layers overhead (hence freezing rain). You move north, the less likely you have such layers. You move south, and that wedge isn't as strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: True, but what was nice was there was a SE shift with the low a bit... and no rain for DC compared to 18z In true mid-atl forum fashion, its every weenie for themselves and I’m now only paying attention to the western area/mountains. but in all seriousness, would like to see the thump/sleet/ice/dry slot scenario for dc and no rain for the 95 corridor. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: In true mid-atl forum fashion, its every weenie for themselves and I’m now only paying attention to the western area/mountains. but in all seriousness, would like to see the thump/sleet/ice/dry slot scenario for dc and no rain for the 95 corridor. Tent space out that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Tent space out that way? Caved. Wife booked us a cabin near Spruce Knob. Sometimes gotta make your own luck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: cold air damming is still pretty fierce down there and storm tracks are typically such that they get big warm layers overhead (hence freezing rain). You move north, the less likely you have such layers. You move south, and that wedge isn't as strong. Now does that have to do with their geography (or perhaps the proper term is topography?) Is their elevation such that it's still cold enough for frozen previl, yet not cold enough for all the layers to be cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, Fozz said: It looks pretty bad here but the Carolinas always seem to get the worst ice storms. Time for ice storm overhype mode for some glaze and a 100 year old overgrown tree falling down in Rockville. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: In true mid-atl forum fashion, its every weenie for themselves and I’m now only paying attention to the western area/mountains. but in all seriousness, would like to see the thump/sleet/ice/dry slot scenario for dc and no rain for the 95 corridor. You aren't the only one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just jumping back in the fray. How much ice for Hagerstown? Oh. And Carbondale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, Jebman said: GB 16 what a storm. We KNEW we were gonna get demolished. 27 inches of snow in Dale City on a level. Plows were having such a hard time! Some of them kind of bounced off the pack lol. I was digging and digging and digging! First I made a path for my Dad's car to the street, which was in fact a wall of snow. What little the plows did, made it worse! Then my neighbor wanted me to chop thru a 7 foot drift in front of her front door and windows! My phone was going off over and over and over again! I was getting slightly tired then the other neighbors started up: You love snow, Jeb! Dig ME out! The other neighbor: All you ever do is go on and on and on about that weather forum! When are you gonna dig me out? Yeah I had talked myself right into having to dig everyone out. People joked about the so-called Jebman Standard (Dig at least 8 feet around all cars lol). I was in over my head, lol - I never realized people read American Weather Forums in my neighborhood lmao And so it went. Yeah I dug so much snow, I was digging it in my exhausted dreams, for days. Legen…..dary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Tent space out that way? Isn’t that a personal question…..? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/12/2022 at 2:11 PM, snowmagnet said: I was in Fairfax/Fair Oaks. The 1st storm that week gave us about 2 feet. The 2nd storm (I’m guessing that was the 12th) was about 10”-12”. 1995-96. Memorable times! So much snow. So much shoveling. Wonderful jebwalks for all-time! The coverage on TWC was engrossing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 22 minutes ago, Jebman said: GB 16 what a storm. We KNEW we were gonna get demolished. 27 inches of snow in Dale City on a level. Plows were having such a hard time! Some of them kind of bounced off the pack lol. I was digging and digging and digging! First I made a path for my Dad's car to the street, which was in fact a wall of snow. What little the plows did, made it worse! Then my neighbor wanted me to chop thru a 7 foot drift in front of her front door and windows! My phone was going off over and over and over again! I was getting slightly tired then the other neighbors started up: You love snow, Jeb! Dig ME out! The other neighbor: All you ever do is go on and on and on about that weather forum! When are you gonna dig me out? Yeah I had talked myself right into having to dig everyone out. People joked about the so-called Jebman Standard (Dig at least 8 feet around all cars lol). I was in over my head, lol - I never realized people read American Weather Forums in my neighborhood lmao And so it went. Yeah I dug so much snow, I was digging it in my exhausted dreams, for days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That is a catastrophic ice storm out here as modeled. .4 qpf and the surface never goes above freezing. Sounding shows no issues until about hour 74 or so. Layer is around 800 and is shallow. Might mix for a couple of hours and then all sleet for a couple. Back to an all snow sounding at 81. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 RGEM….Hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Isn’t that a personal question…..? For sure. I have to work on Saturday so will wait to decide after work if we will be traveling early Sunday. Likely won’t go as far as Deep Creek, but if we do, I’ll drop you a PM. Be good to grab a drink together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, IronTy said: Just don't gag on your beef franks and you'll be A-ok. Remember, they plump when you cook 'em. Are you talking about Yeoman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 59 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol 00z NAM has SLP south of FL panhandle at 51 The GFS is nearly identical with the surface pressure field. What is with the obsession with the placement of the L on the map? Do people really not understand what surface pressure means and how there can be several relative minimums? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 to 3 for DCA on 00z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 RGEM…….about the same as the NAM but shift the ice west. DC escapes the ice 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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