Twilly05 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: That was she said… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, pazzo83 said: If I remember correctly the Blizz of 93 was basically called from 5 days out. On a computer you could fit into a watch today 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: CFS have any value in the short-range? Or the NAVGEM? I didn't even know it HAD a short range, lol 5 star post, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: i am having a hard time recalling a more steadily modeled storm. Like, it hasn't wavered in terms of outcomes, for days. Jan. 2016 was locked in from basically a week out. There was one Euro run that went south but came right back. That was an insane week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 998 over ILM at 69.... snow on DC doorstep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 At 72 the 850 line is almost to 66 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: On a computer you could fit into a watch today right? isn't that insane? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, pazzo83 said: right? isn't that insane? Sure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Thump, mix, slot I've seen far worse runs than this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Jan. 2016 was locked in from basically a week out. There was one Euro run that went south but came right back. That was an insane week. yeah the only ambiguity was up more towards NYC. we scored a late coup up there (it became NYC's biggest snowstorm of all time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Snow to sleet to ice to dry slot for DC this run. No rain 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Nam is a sleet and ice storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The surface low actually went SE a good bit at 6Z Monday from the 18Z run. Closer to the Euro and GFS this run in that regard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM = goodbye power if you're a BGE customer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Go ahead. Call me crazy. Call me a weenie. I have no faith in that NAM solution. Think of it this way. We are talking about the NAM. On Thursday. Regarding Sunday. Can it be said any more plainly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The NAM is much drier. Front end thump less impressive. Something to watch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Next 24-48 hours or so of the NAM will be interesting to see wrt the temp profile of this system. I always trust it most with handling that, but not sure if we're quite at the range to take its precip depiction literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Jan. 2016 was locked in from basically a week out. There was one Euro run that went south but came right back. That was an insane week. GB 16 what a storm. We KNEW we were gonna get demolished. 27 inches of snow in Dale City on a level. Plows were having such a hard time! Some of them kind of bounced off the pack lol. I was digging and digging and digging! First I made a path for my Dad's car to the street, which was in fact a wall of snow. What little the plows did, made it worse! Then my neighbor wanted me to chop thru a 7 foot drift in front of her front door and windows! My phone was going off over and over and over again! I was getting slightly tired then the other neighbors started up: You love snow, Jeb! Dig ME out! The other neighbor: All you ever do is go on and on and on about that weather forum! When are you gonna dig me out? Yeah I had talked myself right into having to dig everyone out. People joked about the so-called Jebman Standard (Dig at least 8 feet around all cars lol). I was in over my head, lol - I never realized people read American Weather Forums in my neighborhood lmao And so it went. Yeah I dug so much snow, I was digging it in my exhausted dreams, for days. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Jan. 2016 was locked in from basically a week out. There was one Euro run that went south but came right back. That was an insane week. Even jan 2016 had a hiccup run here and there that caused mini-panics. This one? This one hasn't dealt one bit of hope for something bigger for those of us on the edge since Monday. Every run, low gets pulled inland. Every time, without fail. It's frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: It looks pretty bad here but the Carolinas always seem to get the worst ice storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Nasty dry slot in WV on that run. It’s the NAM so not worth giving it a bit of attention until tomorrow night/Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 00z NAM implies borderline ice storm for Catoctin Mt. back through HGR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jebman said: GB 16 what a storm. We KNEW we were gonna get demolished. 27 inches of snow in Dale City on a level. Plows were having such a hard time! Some of them kind of bounced off the pack lol. I was digging and digging and digging! First I made a path for my Dad's car to the street, which was in fact a wall of snow. What little the plows did, made it worse! Then my neighbor wanted me to chop thru a 7 foot drift in front of her front door and windows! My phone was going off over and over and over again! I was getting slightly tired then the other neighbors started up: You love snow, Jeb! Dig ME out! The other neighbor: All you ever do is go on and on and on about that weather forum! When are you gonna dig me out? Yeah I had talked myself right into having to dig everyone out. And so it went. Yeah I dug so much snow, I was digging it in my exhausted dreams, for days. The lesson: Be careful about gushing about snow to people withim shoveling distance...lest they use your snow loving against you...with back-breaking results, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: It looks pretty bad here but the Carolinas always seem to get the worst ice storms. I've always wondered why that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: Nasty dry slot in WV on that run. It’s the NAM so not worth giving it a bit of attention until tomorrow night/Saturday. True, but what was nice was there was a SE shift with the low a bit... and no rain for DC compared to 18z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: It looks pretty bad here but the Carolinas always seem to get the worst ice storms. That is a catastrophic ice storm out here as modeled. .4 qpf and the surface never goes above freezing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I've always wondered why that is cold air damming is still pretty fierce down there and storm tracks are typically such that they get big warm layers overhead (hence freezing rain). You move north, the less likely you have such layers. You move south, and that wedge isn't as strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: True, but what was nice was there was a SE shift with the low a bit... and no rain for DC compared to 18z In true mid-atl forum fashion, its every weenie for themselves and I’m now only paying attention to the western area/mountains. but in all seriousness, would like to see the thump/sleet/ice/dry slot scenario for dc and no rain for the 95 corridor. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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