psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It's an identical H5 track and MSLP is like 20 miles from last run. Pretty much the same. There were some minor improvements, again the SW was a little east and faster for a while. But all that is irrelevant because we continue to lose ground in the 2 areas that matter most...the SW keeps trending stronger when we need it weaker and the energy diving in behind keeps getting shaper, digging more and interacting even more. Those 2 things are offsetting any gains we get elsewhere run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Name one system where that warm nose was over-forecast on something wrapped up like this. I think this is going to be a bigger sleetfest than most are willing to accept atm. I'd be kind of surprised if DC gets any more than ~3-4 hours of snow out of it before pingers mix in. That elevated warm nose/WCB is going to kill totals east of the mountains. Couldn't agree more! With these types of events, the transition to sleet is often sooner and farther north and west than what the models like to depict. And if the parent system gets any stronger than currently projected - which is quite possible - that quick changeover is even more likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Snowfan96 said: Couldn't agree more! With these types of events, the transition to sleet is often sooner and farther north and west than what the models like to depict. And if the parent system gets any stronger than currently projected - which is quite possible - that quick changeover is even more likely. If you like snowpack you'd want some sleet with the Euro as progged since DC spikes into mid 40's as the Low passes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Is the 18z euro running? maybe tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 if that capture could just happen a few hours later...low gets to southeast VA near ORF then cuts NNW to HGR. If that could get just 50 miles further east before it starts that NNW move and ends up near PHilly instead of HGR it would make a big difference for DC metro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: Couldn't agree more! With these types of events, the transition to sleet is often sooner and farther north and west than what the models like to depict. And if the parent system gets any stronger than currently projected - which is quite possible - that quick changeover is even more likely. @stormtracker troll needs to be pulled from under his bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO Pretty much every snow map looks about the same for mby so assuming some of this is sleet I think 4-6" out here is a reasonable first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Yep, and goes negative too fast. We want a pitch that comes in farther east. This ain't it. Take the pennies you get and cut your losses on this one. The clipper system looks healthy on its own. Might be a cleaner event if it didn’t phase so quickly with that other west coast energy (or if it was the only system). Hopefully it trends a little further east towards gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 all in all I would say a slight improvement on the 18z euro simply because it had a slightly better WAA thump. Pretty identical to 12z in every other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO Is the precip done by this frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here's precip through 0z Monday And 850s at that timeframe. Still holding on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'll open the zoom chat around 10:00 this evening...and keep it open until the GFS comes out. Won't be on as long as last night. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: I met the guy who runs BC before (trying to remember where I was). Nice guy though & good beers. Nice! I’m not a huge beer drinker, but they have a good sour ale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 36 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’m pretty excited for this event. Mountains look to get whacked. Well its about time. I am sure we'll find a path to warm up and rain in time for my return next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, RIC_WX said: Well its about time. I am sure we'll find a path to warm up and rain in time for my return next weekend. K.O.D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Is the precip done by this frame? Quick thump, heaviest precipitation comes in between 1-4 and is over before 1am Mon most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, csnavywx said: Name one system where that warm nose was over-forecast on something wrapped up like this. I think this is going to be a bigger sleetfest than most are willing to accept atm. I'd be kind of surprised if DC gets any more than ~3-4 hours of snow out of it before pingers mix in. That elevated warm nose/WCB is going to kill totals east of the mountains. Reminds me a lot of an old @Cold Rain post in the SE forum after a big bust there in Jan 2017. Obviously this is a very different storm, and not everything here applies. But I always try to keep in in mind. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18z EPS mean at DCA is 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, IronTy said: Hmmm, impressed you remembered that. Yeah I also just retired at 41yo. My first day of retirement was out big snowstorm last Monday. Don't cry too many tears for me. Private equity big boss for the win. Went with weenie because I couldn't find the gag button. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ops appear to have done nice job on this one from a pretty good range imo. The general idea hasn't wavered for a few days and if you think about it, ensembles made it harder to forecast. Ensembles didn't do all that great at their most useful range. Pretty unusual the way it's played out so far. Only call: 3-4" IMBY 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Pretty much every snow map looks about the same for mby so assuming some of this is sleet I think 4-6" out here is a reasonable first call It’s first guess, not first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Even out here my call is 3-4. Those warm noses never fail to verify. I expect a lot of mixing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s first guess, not first call I'm DZ not DT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It’s Thursday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 By Chief Meteorologist George Flickinger out of Lynchburg, VA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I am nowhere near ready to make any kind of call. The models have consistently bullseyed me for 3 days. The Lucy rug pull could be right around the corner. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 0z runs will be a big deal..big deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Final call 2-4 DC then pingers and rain which is fine, perfect stats padder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The one trend that continues and its not what we want...is a slightly more amplified SW each run. That's what's offsetting a lot of the improvements people point out on some runs. So what you’re saying is that the same shit keeps happening in the end regardless of what comes before it? Seems annoying. I wonder where I’ve heard that before… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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