H2O Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 And then the one over the inner harbor. Winterwxlvr said it’s still coming west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: WxBell looks rather different, FWIW. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 You learn a lot here, I never knew there was a Buffalo in Maryland. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 So in summary, the 12z suite puts a major Northeast/East Coast storm well in play for late weekend. Controls keep track inland which keeps significant snows west of the metros. Ensembles provide hope for a more coastal track. Too much time and stress left between now and Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 40 minutes ago, nj2va said: I'll be in McHenry this weekend...Euro made me giddy. I might also head to Deep Creek if this storm cuts too far west. I haven't been to Wisp in a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Love the cold after the storm on the Euro as well. Whatever falls is going to become concrete and be here for quite some time. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I think based on the Ops and their corresponding ensembles, we honestly are sitting pretty damn nice for this lead time. The details show that there is likely going to be a sizeable storm but the exact track is of course still up for debate. Someone is getting smoked though whether its NC to Maine. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Was going to make a I have a dream reference about the storm, but even as a bleck, I cringed a little. So, without further ado, here is the Jan 17 potential storm thread. Legal disclaimer: As author of this thread, Stormtracker(tm) is not responsible for any negative affects to the storm. By posting in this thread, you accept all terms and conditions, including, but not limited to: praising stormtracker if storm trends favorable, NOT blaming stormtracker if storm trends even more negatively than it already has. This offer cannot be redeemed for cash, monopoly properties or any rights to ban Vice Regent. How about Full Moon Freeze Fest Spectacular? I had a dream too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's all about the storm and expectations. If there is a big coastal storm, yes, I'm going to be mad if I get 6 inches immediately washed away as the snow turns over to rain. But if It's a clipper or something and I'm getting 1-3 or 2-4, that's awesome. Or just a quick moving wave that lays down a nice 3-6/4-8, great! You only get so many chances in life to experience a HECS. And there are only so many opportunities to get one, so when the chance comes along, you don't want to swing and miss. 20 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Good advice. Work is kicking my ass and interfering with my favorite hobby lol. But yes, I don’t get too excited until we get into the 48-72 hour range. If this looks good on Thursday all bets are off on containing my excitement. Hope you are having a great start to the New Year! You all have to forgive me. I always expect the least and am hardly ever disappointed when threats don't work out in our favor. I also could care less about how much snow falls. Just falling snow is wonderful. Sleet can **** right off though. But doing fine, getting ready for company-wide GIS training session #2, so yay. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Man, that's a sizeable number of big hits on the 12z EPS. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well my power just cut out for a brief second for no other apparent reason, so... Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Man, that's a sizeable number of big hits on the 12z EPS. That was my takeaway as well. They don't all hit us, but there aren't many panels there without a big hit somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thank the heavens. EPS tempered the temporary disappointment with the OP This storm is starting out a lot further south than a lot of the setups where we struggle with an inland track. And the mid and upper levels look great. I would ride with this! All 3 globals did something pretty wonky with the surface low. I could see a westward intrusion of a mid level warm layer of the upper low is too slow. But what typically happens in that situation is you get an initial thump of WAA snow then a huge dry slot. That’s the setup we had in Feb 2014. Then with that h5 track probably a deform round 2. Of course the whole setup could be wrong but as others have stated also I doubt the surface look the globals are spitting out if the mid and upper levels are correct. 8 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just got on today. Why for the love of all things holy did this thread get started? This is why we can't have nice things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: Just got on today. Why for the love of all things holy did this thread get started? This is why we can't have nice things. you're welcome to not read it, if it displeases you so much 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I won't insult everyone by posting the whole disco, but to someone's earlier point about tornado watches... In terms of forcing, an upper low feature currently situated just off the NW coast will begin to shoot down across the CONUS. Following its initial path across the western third of the CONUS will allow for ridging in its wake. A cutoff low will subsequently shoot down near the Tennessee Valley by Saturday night with a coastal low poised to form off the Carolina coastline. This, along with subtropical ridging across the western Atlantic will keep the low tracked most likely closer to the coastline than further south. Main uncertainty now is the exact track of the low. This will greatly influence the potential for a widespread snowfall for the Mid- Atlantic or even the potential for snow in the mountains and maybe a slight severe threat further east. GEFS 12z guidance has come a little bit more in agreement to EPS (a bit further south) but overall trends are still favoring a significant snowfall event somewhere between central NC and closer to the Mason-Dixon line and points further NE. Continue to visit weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest forecast regarding this event. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 15 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Man there are a lot of beautiful panels in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 This has such a classic look for the Winchester folks to see 2 feet+.. I mean, if it all holds. Zoom calls/Radio show futures seem likely. I hope all continues. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On Saturday, the GFS was giving me 39.9” of snow by Jan 23rd. So the MLK plus the 22nd-23rd Storm should do the trick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: Man there are a lot of beautiful panels in there 26 looks like a typical coastal monster. Favored areas get hit hardest. Mixing lower totals S and E. I’ll take it and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1994 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 24 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Number 47 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Number 26 might just beat 47....this might be a fun weekend with hyped storm preps and brine...lots of brine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, mappy said: you're welcome to not read it, if it displeases you so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Sooooooo. The 12z CIPS analogs are out...... The top two analogs with regards to the 500mb height pattern at 132 hrs out are: 1/26/2011 2/13/2014 Lead up at 120 hrs out number one analog...... 2/10/1983 This doesn't mean we can expect those exact results, but it does show what type of pattern and setup we are heading into these next 5-7 days. Remarkable swing these last 18 hrs. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 CWG has a post up on the potential storm with Wes as a co-author: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/01/11/dc-snow-chances-cold-pattern/ 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Sooooooo. The 12z CIPS analogs are out...... The top two analogs with regards to the 500mb height pattern at 132 hrs out are: 1/26/2011 2/13/2014 Lead up at 120 hrs out number one analog...... 2/10/1983 This doesn't mean we can expect those exact results, but it does show what type of pattern and setup we are heading into these next 5-7 days. Remarkable swing these last 18 hrs. The one thing those three storms had in common was the amazing rates and dynamics, including the widespread thundersnow. I remember seeing that flash of lightning at Millersville back in Feb 2014. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Sooooooo. The 12z CIPS analogs are out...... The top two analogs with regards to the 500mb height pattern at 132 hrs out are: 1/26/2011 2/13/2014 Lead up at 120 hrs out number one analog...... 2/10/1983 This doesn't mean we can expect those exact results, but it does show what type of pattern and setup we are heading into these next 5-7 days. Remarkable swing these last 18 hrs. Interesting that Commutageddon got in there. Wouldn't necessarily have thought of that, but I imagine it's due to the intense closed 500mb low (which Commutageddon had). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Sooooooo. The 12z CIPS analogs are out...... The top two analogs with regards to the 500mb height pattern at 132 hrs out are: 1/26/2011 2/13/2014 Lead up at 120 hrs out number one analog...... 2/10/1983 This doesn't mean we can expect those exact results, but it does show what type of pattern and setup we are heading into these next 5-7 days. Remarkable swing these last 18 hrs. I'll add 1/4/94 to the list 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 With the explosive cyclogenesis factor, this would produce extreme snowfall rates over the region and the frontal boundaries might not be as far inland as feared because of the rapid development. Also would expect a correction on this westward trend as chinook signal is filtered out of the development (chinooks confuse models a bit as there is warmth that won't travel downstream). The genesis for this storm is the short wave moving inland over the Pac NW and then due to sneak through the upper level ridge out west to form a Rocky Mountain lee depression in se CO that generates low pressure in Texas. The key is the strength of the arctic high moving southeast to wedge between this storm and the previous one which would be up around Baffin Island by Sunday. As that crests ahead of the bombing east coast cyclone, cold air will be hard to push out, if the 985 mb low verifies but closer to a track up the coast and towards east half NYC metro, then sleet stays coastal - Delmarva and S+ axis is closer to I-95 although still somewhat further inland. Blizzard of 1899 followed a similar evolution and crossed n FL, came up the coast and bombed out near Delmarva. Depth of cold air not quite up to that standard and more similar to the Blizzard of 93 which also came across ne FL. Something big is in the works and the timing at full moon brings in a lot of strong analogues. This could easily top 30" somewhere in the subforum, most likely sw to nw of DC. Would say 8-12" DCA and 15-20" IAD, 10-15" BWI, mostly sleet to rain SBY, multi-phase crapfest RIC, 2" rain se VA. Thundersnow and thundersleet very likely. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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