mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Why isn't he posting? This is right up his alley....doom posting and this time, he'd actually be right! lol he’s not so doom and gloom now 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: @mappy where did you and Chris grab a beer? That’s a good happy hour model watching idea if I’ve ever heard one. We are at BC Brewery, a coworkers last day is tomorrow so out with work folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: You’re far enough west that any warm layer you get will probably be really short lived. But they sounding shows that (at least) the 800-875mb layer is warming rapidly and a higher resolution model probably would indicate a warmer layer. It’s still going to snow in the metro corridor and it still will accumulate. But I think there will be SOME sleet for many/most east of 81. Agree. If its not sleeting during that sounding than it will be shortly. But with a sounding like that the previous half hour was probably an epic snow dump. And I also agree that our elevation helps some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jebman said: Those shifts are gonna happen. Keep tracking the models. THERE HE IS! Dude. We need your persistent optimism. Worked wonders last week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We could end up going over to plain old rain as well with a west shift. Nothing is off the table at this point. I am feeling good about the Euro and GFS being almost identical at this point though. Very true. One thing is for sure, ill be up through the 00z euro run tonight as we enter it’s wheelhouse. Feeling very good about our chances of a warning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: THERE HE IS! Dude. We need your persistent optimism. Worked wonders last week. You need to go to the store, buy about ten Jebman Shovels, because the entire Washington Metropolitan Region is going to get demolished by a Jebman Shift in the models, maybe several Jebman Shifts. The entire region's gonna be under WSW's. Well maybe NOT Jebman shifts, but shifts nonetheless that will place all of your backyards squarely in the torrential snow and under the deform. Track the models strap yourself in tight, gonna be a wild ride lol 7 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Very true. One thing is for sure, ill be up through the 00z euro run tonight as we enter it’s wheelhouse. Feeling very good about our chances of a warning event That could happen region wide due to the ice threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Went to the store today for my normal, weekly run and got the last 1/2 gallons of milk. Employee said they were full an hour before. Guess people must be getting the message 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Crazy how this got better for the thump to the south.. better to the west, but that warm intrusion has held fast! I mean, it has not moved much at all! At this point, it has to be true, but something could change I guess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Everyone looks at this through their own lens, but I’d like to see this thing start slowing down Sunday afternoon. It’s zipping through now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z GFS gets DCA to full climo with this event. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z GFS gets DCA to full climo with this event. Isn't DCA 5" below climo right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Isn't DCA 5" below climo right now? if true, it does make it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Isn't DCA 5" below climo right now? Believe so. 18z Gfs gives them that 5” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z GFS gets DCA to full climo with this event. And it only the second week of January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: if true, it does make it. MBY in the purple by a thread there. YEET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: if true, it does make it. Is that better than 12z or same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just like the last storm just quietly lurking. Being in Germantown it seems I've been on the fringe 3 times this winter, always a nail biter but certainly a good storm within driving distance! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Is that better than 12z or same?Roughly the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, mappy said: lol he’s not so doom and gloom now We are at BC Brewery, a coworkers last day is tomorrow so out with work folks I met the guy who runs BC before (trying to remember where I was). Nice guy though & good beers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Isn't DCA 5" below climo right now? DCA is 4.9" below climo according to Ion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Everyone needs to relax and be happy with 3-6” of atmospheric weenie (along the corridor). Cheers @ravensrule 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS has McHenry gusting into the low 50s Sunday night. Check out this panel for the 95 corridor. I’d think overdone but we do wind well around here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 RGEM drives into central VA at the end of its run. 2-5 for pretty much everyone before the ice takes over. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS has McHenry gusting into the low 50s Sunday night. Check out this panel for the 95 corridor. I’d think overdone but we do wind well around here. That looks like power outages 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 FWIW, GEFS finally catching on and shifting west again. Still east of op but west of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS has McHenry gusting into the low 50s Sunday night. Check out this panel for the 95 corridor. I’d think overdone but we do wind well around here. I can't think of a time when the euro gust panels were accurate for any kind of storm. Never checked gfs. Euro always seemed way overdone. I started looking at wind a different way and got much better at predicting. Look at your sustained surface winds instead of gusts. Then add 10-15mph to that for "gusts". Check 925s and see how quick it's ripping just off the deck and make adjustments in your head. Generally speaking, I95 & west really doesn't get big wind gusts without a westerly component. Maybe it's topography. My yard or neighborhood gets little if any wind damage when there's an easterly component. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 My wife has to fly out of IAD on Monday midday for some business trip to go fire one of her CEOs. I'm selfish and don't want her to go. I haven't told her about this storm so she hasn't had the chance to change the flight to BWI. I feel guilty, but not really. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: My wife has to fly out of IAD on Monday midday for some business trip to go fire one of her CEOs. I'm selfish and don't want her to go. I haven't told her about this storm so she hasn't had the chance to change the flight to BWI. I feel guilty, but not really. That CEO thanks you. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Yeah, I’ll take 70-90% and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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