WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I was a little down this morning, but I'm actually pretty excited about this again now that expectations have been reasonably set for the metros. Start the thread at two days next time 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: We could end up going over to plain old rain as well with a west shift. Nothing is off the table at this point. I am feeling good about the Euro and GFS being almost identical at this point though. Wait a minute, if that happens I’m trolling you mercilessly. Already warned you about throwing words out like hammered and pounded and beat down. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @mappy where did you and Chris grab a beer? That’s a good happy hour model watching idea if I’ve ever heard one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Is the GFS showing a changeover to sleet/rain and back to snow with deformation? For NOVA and DC it does. Maybe another inch or 2 on the backside Monday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: Absolutely!! We don't need your doomposting, Snowfart69 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: Agreed. Think we’ve been on the same page all long. I tend to do well when you and @clskinsfan do well. I think our corridor is very much in the game here. You guys even more so than me due to being further west. Worst case, I think we see a solid thump before a sleet bomb, but I’m not discounting a 90+% snow event either. There is far too much time left and too many players on the proverbial field to give up hope at this point - especially when 50-100 mile shifts ESE could significantly up our totals. long way to go. If 00z trends in the wrong direction again, that’s when I’ll begin to worry. Those shifts are gonna happen. Keep tracking the models. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I mean, yes, verbatim it’s snowing meteors to beat the band right there. But I do think the euro and NAM are going to find some warmer layers in there and it’s going to be pounding sleet. I have never had sleet here with 850’s ok. Unless the rates are light. Seems as soon as they are heavy we flip back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I still need another 30mi jog east. I'll say a few Hail Marys tonight before bed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The Euro is actually wetter than the GFS. But they are very similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It’s gonna be fun really for a lot of us..posting the changeover updates, pingers, ice on the trees, drinking, memes, all the fun anyone can handle without getting arrested. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I have never had sleet here with 850’s ok. Unless the rates are light. Seems as soon as they are heavy we flip back. You’re far enough west that any warm layer you get will probably be really short lived. But that sounding shows that (at least) the 800-875mb layer is warming rapidly and a higher resolution model probably would indicate a warmer layer. It’s still going to snow in the metro corridor and it still will accumulate. But I think there will be SOME sleet for many/most east of 81. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: It’s gonna be fun really for a lot of us..posting the changeover updates, pingers, ice on the trees, drinking, memes, all the fun anyone can handle without getting arrested. All while watching NFL playoffs. Well as long as the power stays on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Why isn't he posting? This is right up his alley....doom posting and this time, he'd actually be right! lol he’s not so doom and gloom now 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: @mappy where did you and Chris grab a beer? That’s a good happy hour model watching idea if I’ve ever heard one. We are at BC Brewery, a coworkers last day is tomorrow so out with work folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: You’re far enough west that any warm layer you get will probably be really short lived. But they sounding shows that (at least) the 800-875mb layer is warming rapidly and a higher resolution model probably would indicate a warmer layer. It’s still going to snow in the metro corridor and it still will accumulate. But I think there will be SOME sleet for many/most east of 81. Agree. If its not sleeting during that sounding than it will be shortly. But with a sounding like that the previous half hour was probably an epic snow dump. And I also agree that our elevation helps some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jebman said: Those shifts are gonna happen. Keep tracking the models. THERE HE IS! Dude. We need your persistent optimism. Worked wonders last week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We could end up going over to plain old rain as well with a west shift. Nothing is off the table at this point. I am feeling good about the Euro and GFS being almost identical at this point though. Very true. One thing is for sure, ill be up through the 00z euro run tonight as we enter it’s wheelhouse. Feeling very good about our chances of a warning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: THERE HE IS! Dude. We need your persistent optimism. Worked wonders last week. You need to go to the store, buy about ten Jebman Shovels, because the entire Washington Metropolitan Region is going to get demolished by a Jebman Shift in the models, maybe several Jebman Shifts. The entire region's gonna be under WSW's. Well maybe NOT Jebman shifts, but shifts nonetheless that will place all of your backyards squarely in the torrential snow and under the deform. Track the models strap yourself in tight, gonna be a wild ride lol 7 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Very true. One thing is for sure, ill be up through the 00z euro run tonight as we enter it’s wheelhouse. Feeling very good about our chances of a warning event That could happen region wide due to the ice threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Went to the store today for my normal, weekly run and got the last 1/2 gallons of milk. Employee said they were full an hour before. Guess people must be getting the message 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Crazy how this got better for the thump to the south.. better to the west, but that warm intrusion has held fast! I mean, it has not moved much at all! At this point, it has to be true, but something could change I guess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Everyone looks at this through their own lens, but I’d like to see this thing start slowing down Sunday afternoon. It’s zipping through now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z GFS gets DCA to full climo with this event. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z GFS gets DCA to full climo with this event. Isn't DCA 5" below climo right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Isn't DCA 5" below climo right now? if true, it does make it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Isn't DCA 5" below climo right now? Believe so. 18z Gfs gives them that 5” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z GFS gets DCA to full climo with this event. And it only the second week of January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: if true, it does make it. MBY in the purple by a thread there. YEET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: if true, it does make it. Is that better than 12z or same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just like the last storm just quietly lurking. Being in Germantown it seems I've been on the fringe 3 times this winter, always a nail biter but certainly a good storm within driving distance! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Is that better than 12z or same?Roughly the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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