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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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Not sure if this is still the case versus how it used to work, but we should have a bunch of new data to work with at 00z. 
 

CRUCIAL series of runs. If 00z Gfs and company come in snowier than 18z, we’re still very much in business being 60+ hours out. But we really do need that trend to start and be pronounced tonight. Wouldn’t be the first or last time we scored a coup within 48-72 hours. Might be wishful thinking - especially for the 95 crew, but I do think there are many locations in NoVA and C MD that are still very much in the game. Time is running thin though.
 

As far as my general area over to highway 15 and out to Winchester and points W, we are still very much in the game for a significant snowfall. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Not sure if this is still the case versus how it used to work, but we should have a bunch of new data to work with at 00z. 
 

CRUCIAL series of runs. If 00z Gfs and company come in snowier than 18z, we’re still very much in business being 60+ hours out. But we really do need that trend to start and be pronounced tonight. Wouldn’t be the first or last time we scored a coup within 48-72 hours. Might be wishful thinking - especially for the 95 crew, but I do think there are many locations in NoVA and C MD that are still very much in the game. Time is running thin though.
 

As far as my general area over to highway 15 and out to Winchester and points W, we are still very much in the game for a significant snowfall. 

Agree here. I said yesterday that I didn’t think we’d really have the whole picture until Friday evening.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok explain that. To me that says with rates it can stay snow. I mean that level is right on freezing. Am I just wrong?

I mean, yes, verbatim it’s snowing meteors to beat the band right there. But I do think the euro and NAM are going to find some warmer layers in there and it’s going to be pounding sleet.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Agree here. I said yesterday that I didn’t think we’d really have the whole picture until Friday evening.

Agreed. Think we’ve been on the same page all long. I tend to do well when you and @clskinsfan do well. I think our corridor is very much in the game here. You guys even more so than me due to being further west. Worst case, I think we see a solid thump before a sleet bomb, but I’m not discounting a 90+% snow event either. There is far too much time left and too many players on the proverbial field to give up hope at this point - especially when 50-100 mile shifts ESE could significantly up our totals. 
 

long way to go. If 00z trends in the wrong direction again, that’s when I’ll begin to worry. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Agreed. Think we’ve been on the same page all long. I tend to do well when you and @clskinsfan do well. I think our corridor is very much in the game here. You guys even more so than me due to being further west. Worst case, I think we see a solid thump before a sleet bomb, but I’m not discounting a 90+% snow event either. There is far too much time left and too many players on the proverbial field to give up hope at this point - especially when 50-100 mile shifts ESE could significantly up our totals. 
 

long way to go. If 00z trends in the wrong direction again, that’s when I’ll begin to worry. 

We could end up going over to plain old rain as well with a west shift. Nothing is off the table at this point. I am feeling good about the Euro and GFS being almost identical at this point though. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Agreed. Think we’ve been on the same page all long. I tend to do well when you and @clskinsfan do well. I think our corridor is very much in the game here. You guys even more so than me due to being further west. Worst case, I think we see a solid thump before a sleet bomb, but I’m not discounting a 90+% snow event either. There is far too much time left and too many players on the proverbial field to give up hope at this point - especially when 50-100 mile shifts ESE could significantly up our totals. 
 

long way to go. If 00z trends in the wrong direction again, that’s when I’ll begin to worry. 

Some may think I’m nuts, but I actually WANT a short period of sleet followed by a couple hours of light freezing rain followed by 1/2 of snow. Perfect storm IMO.

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