mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @Baltimorewx and I are enjoying a beer together while looking at the happy hour gfs. Cheers friends 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Yikes Ok explain that. To me that says with rates it can stay snow. I mean that level is right on freezing. Am I just wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: SMOKED! GFS is consistent for us western folks. Gets close for an hour or so. But all snow out here. Nice wrap around band for NOVA and DC like the EURO had. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No … you didn’t .. did you? Let me tell you, I had a reply to another post that was a perfect dismount, no hops. But I didn't even do it. It would have even made RR blush. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 9.4 on that map in mby…done and done PWC special! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looks similar to the Euro maps you posted earlier… at least for mby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: @Baltimorewx and I are enjoying a beer together while looking at the happy hour gfs. Cheers friends Why isn't he posting? This is right up his alley....doom posting and this time, he'd actually be right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok explain that. To me that says with rates it can stay snow. I mean that level is right on freezing. Am I just wrong? I mean, yes, verbatim it’s snowing meteors to beat the band right there. But I do think the euro and NAM are going to find some warmer layers in there and it’s going to be pounding sleet. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Agree here. I said yesterday that I didn’t think we’d really have the whole picture until Friday evening. Agreed. Think we’ve been on the same page all long. I tend to do well when you and @clskinsfan do well. I think our corridor is very much in the game here. You guys even more so than me due to being further west. Worst case, I think we see a solid thump before a sleet bomb, but I’m not discounting a 90+% snow event either. There is far too much time left and too many players on the proverbial field to give up hope at this point - especially when 50-100 mile shifts ESE could significantly up our totals. long way to go. If 00z trends in the wrong direction again, that’s when I’ll begin to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Is the GFS showing a changeover to sleet/rain and back to snow with deformation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 9.5 in Stafford thats great all things considered. I would take 4-6" (Warning Criteria) and call this a win around FXBG. 5" would put us over 21" for this year, which is well above the normal of about 13" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: PWC special! Yeah buddy. Not I-81 good but pretty freakin good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, mappy said: @Baltimorewx and I are enjoying a beer together while looking at the happy hour gfs. Cheers friends 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 I was a little down this morning, but I'm actually pretty excited about this again now that expectations have been reasonably set for the metros. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I mean, yes, verbatim it’s snowing meteors to beat the band right there. But I do think the euro and NAM are going to find some warmer layers in there and it’s going to be pounding sleet. Absolutely!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Agreed. Think we’ve been on the same page all long. I tend to do well when you and @clskinsfan do well. I think our corridor is very much in the game here. You guys even more so than me due to being further west. Worst case, I think we see a solid thump before a sleet bomb, but I’m not discounting a 90+% snow event either. There is far too much time left and too many players on the proverbial field to give up hope at this point - especially when 50-100 mile shifts ESE could significantly up our totals. long way to go. If 00z trends in the wrong direction again, that’s when I’ll begin to worry. We could end up going over to plain old rain as well with a west shift. Nothing is off the table at this point. I am feeling good about the Euro and GFS being almost identical at this point though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Agreed. Think we’ve been on the same page all long. I tend to do well when you and @clskinsfan do well. I think our corridor is very much in the game here. You guys even more so than me due to being further west. Worst case, I think we see a solid thump before a sleet bomb, but I’m not discounting a 90+% snow event either. There is far too much time left and too many players on the proverbial field to give up hope at this point - especially when 50-100 mile shifts ESE could significantly up our totals. long way to go. If 00z trends in the wrong direction again, that’s when I’ll begin to worry. Some may think I’m nuts, but I actually WANT a short period of sleet followed by a couple hours of light freezing rain followed by 1/2 of snow. Perfect storm IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Scraff said: How’s Happy Hour rolling? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I was a little down this morning, but I'm actually pretty excited about this again now that expectations have been reasonably set for the metros. Start the thread at two days next time 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: We could end up going over to plain old rain as well with a west shift. Nothing is off the table at this point. I am feeling good about the Euro and GFS being almost identical at this point though. Wait a minute, if that happens I’m trolling you mercilessly. Already warned you about throwing words out like hammered and pounded and beat down. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @mappy where did you and Chris grab a beer? That’s a good happy hour model watching idea if I’ve ever heard one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Is the GFS showing a changeover to sleet/rain and back to snow with deformation? For NOVA and DC it does. Maybe another inch or 2 on the backside Monday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: Absolutely!! We don't need your doomposting, Snowfart69 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: Agreed. Think we’ve been on the same page all long. I tend to do well when you and @clskinsfan do well. I think our corridor is very much in the game here. You guys even more so than me due to being further west. Worst case, I think we see a solid thump before a sleet bomb, but I’m not discounting a 90+% snow event either. There is far too much time left and too many players on the proverbial field to give up hope at this point - especially when 50-100 mile shifts ESE could significantly up our totals. long way to go. If 00z trends in the wrong direction again, that’s when I’ll begin to worry. Those shifts are gonna happen. Keep tracking the models. 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I mean, yes, verbatim it’s snowing meteors to beat the band right there. But I do think the euro and NAM are going to find some warmer layers in there and it’s going to be pounding sleet. I have never had sleet here with 850’s ok. Unless the rates are light. Seems as soon as they are heavy we flip back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I still need another 30mi jog east. I'll say a few Hail Marys tonight before bed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The Euro is actually wetter than the GFS. But they are very similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It’s gonna be fun really for a lot of us..posting the changeover updates, pingers, ice on the trees, drinking, memes, all the fun anyone can handle without getting arrested. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I have never had sleet here with 850’s ok. Unless the rates are light. Seems as soon as they are heavy we flip back. You’re far enough west that any warm layer you get will probably be really short lived. But that sounding shows that (at least) the 800-875mb layer is warming rapidly and a higher resolution model probably would indicate a warmer layer. It’s still going to snow in the metro corridor and it still will accumulate. But I think there will be SOME sleet for many/most east of 81. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: It’s gonna be fun really for a lot of us..posting the changeover updates, pingers, ice on the trees, drinking, memes, all the fun anyone can handle without getting arrested. All while watching NFL playoffs. Well as long as the power stays on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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