TSG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: The NAM is undervalued at 84 hr with numerous upper air features and phasing at play? How, exactly? Please stop feeding the troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, TSG said: the hand wringing in here over the 84-hr NAM is pathetic. get ahold of yourselves weenies Plus it’s not a forecast anyway, just another 6 hour example of a possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: The NAM is undervalued at 84 hr with numerous upper air features and phasing at play? How, exactly? My only point is the NAM doesn’t get enough credit, esp. in these types of scenarios/set-ups. It tends to be more reliable and accurate than many have come to believe. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: My only point is the NAM doesn’t get enough credit, esp. in these types of scenarios/set-ups. It tends to be more reliable and accurate than many have come to believe. It's unreliable near the end of its run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I mean if I was gonna pick a mountain to die on it certainly wouldnt be the NAM. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just sitting back and watching the show 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: My only point is the NAM doesn’t get enough credit, esp. in these types of scenarios/set-ups. It tends to be more reliable and accurate than many have come to believe. You must be new here. Every been NAM'ed? Around here we go with the snowiest model as gospel. During a good NAM'ing we bow to "king NAM" lol. Anyway.. GFS time. Sorry for banter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: My only point is the NAM doesn’t get enough credit, esp. in these types of scenarios/set-ups. It tends to be more reliable and accurate than many have come to believe. This is true, but when the GFS and NAM have large synoptic differences at longer ranges, it's not often that the NAM will be correct. It's simply a lot to ask of *any* regional model to nail synoptic details beyond day 2. One the snyoptics align, one should absolutely use the NAM (and preferably the NAM Nest) for temperatures and important mesoscale details. 8 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 37 minutes ago, jon_snow said: guyz give it to me straight, is this storm a bust for DCA? Couldn't tell you, since I'm a gal. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Let's not forget about sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 My opinion of the gfs is it should be ever so slightly better than 12z for us, h5 and bit S/E along with the precip shield & the N/S phasing piece is in about the same location. Confluence in the NE is barely NE of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The NAM could be right, but I have no idea why any I-81 folks would freak out. The GFS and Euro have showed adjustments here and there almost every run for 48 hours now and the end result is literally the exact same each time. Like Bobchill said, it seems like the tracks are laid down and the storm has nowhere to go but along the tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS still looks ok. ~0.5" QPF by the changeover close to 00z Monday near DC. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 to 5 seems possible looking at the 18z GFS for DC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This is true, but when the GFS and NAM have large synoptic differences at longer ranges, it's not often that the NAM will be correct. It's simply a lot to ask of *any* regional model to nail synoptic details beyond day 2. One the snyoptics align, one should absolutely use the NAM (and preferably the NAM Nest) for temperatures and important mesoscale details.Still haven’t looked at a dang thing, but I too am interested in the Nest, starting tomorrow. Nest did amazing with March 2017. This is a good setup for it. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: NAM pain scale There should be an 11 on that scale 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS doesn’t look bad and we get some back side love this go around. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 SMOKED! GFS is consistent for us western folks. Gets close for an hour or so. But all snow out here. Nice wrap around band for NOVA and DC like the EURO had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just make this panel come true and I'll call it a storm here south of Baltimore... 3 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This is really the wrong season to root for a Wilmington to DC low track. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS would actually get close to WSW criteria at DC metro region 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS shows 5". I'll take it. That's whats I said. In all seriousness, 18z is actually....kinda ideal best case scenario. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: SMOKED! GFS is consistent for us western folks. Gets close for an hour or so. But all snow out here. Nice wrap around band for NOVA and DC like the GFS had. Duuuuude, we get pummeled 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, caviman2201 said: Just make this panel come true and I'll call it a storm here south of Baltimore... I'll allow it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: GFS doesn’t look bad and we get some back side love this go around. Even an inch in the backside is fun. Will add to the fun 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Take the GFS and runs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 32 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: I don’t see it happening with the sfc and H5 low tracks. They will at least change to sleet, if not mix with rain. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Greedy mfer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 5". I'll take it. That's whats I said. 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'll allow it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts