MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS still looks ok. ~0.5" QPF by the changeover close to 00z Monday near DC. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 to 5 seems possible looking at the 18z GFS for DC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This is true, but when the GFS and NAM have large synoptic differences at longer ranges, it's not often that the NAM will be correct. It's simply a lot to ask of *any* regional model to nail synoptic details beyond day 2. One the snyoptics align, one should absolutely use the NAM (and preferably the NAM Nest) for temperatures and important mesoscale details.Still haven’t looked at a dang thing, but I too am interested in the Nest, starting tomorrow. Nest did amazing with March 2017. This is a good setup for it. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: NAM pain scale There should be an 11 on that scale 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS doesn’t look bad and we get some back side love this go around. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 SMOKED! GFS is consistent for us western folks. Gets close for an hour or so. But all snow out here. Nice wrap around band for NOVA and DC like the EURO had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just make this panel come true and I'll call it a storm here south of Baltimore... 3 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This is really the wrong season to root for a Wilmington to DC low track. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS would actually get close to WSW criteria at DC metro region 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS shows 5". I'll take it. That's whats I said. In all seriousness, 18z is actually....kinda ideal best case scenario. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: SMOKED! GFS is consistent for us western folks. Gets close for an hour or so. But all snow out here. Nice wrap around band for NOVA and DC like the GFS had. Duuuuude, we get pummeled 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, caviman2201 said: Just make this panel come true and I'll call it a storm here south of Baltimore... I'll allow it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: GFS doesn’t look bad and we get some back side love this go around. Even an inch in the backside is fun. Will add to the fun 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Take the GFS and runs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 32 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: I don’t see it happening with the sfc and H5 low tracks. They will at least change to sleet, if not mix with rain. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Greedy mfer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 5". I'll take it. That's whats I said. 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'll allow it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 29 minutes ago, TSG said: get ahold of yourselves weenies remove the selves and you have a very different sentence meaning. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This thread is an all time classic 5 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: remove the selves and you have a very different sentence meaning. Leave the lame double entendres to the inner 5th grader of the adults, son. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Even an inch in the backside is fun. Will add to the fun Hit it hard and wait for the dry slot. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Not sure if this is still the case versus how it used to work, but we should have a bunch of new data to work with at 00z. CRUCIAL series of runs. If 00z Gfs and company come in snowier than 18z, we’re still very much in business being 60+ hours out. But we really do need that trend to start and be pronounced tonight. Wouldn’t be the first or last time we scored a coup within 48-72 hours. Might be wishful thinking - especially for the 95 crew, but I do think there are many locations in NoVA and C MD that are still very much in the game. Time is running thin though. As far as my general area over to highway 15 and out to Winchester and points W, we are still very much in the game for a significant snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Even an inch in the backside is fun. Will add to the fun No … you didn’t .. did you? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 9.4 on that map in mby…done and done 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 How’s Happy Hour rolling? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Not sure if this is still the case versus how it used to work, but we should have a bunch of new data to work with at 00z. CRUCIAL series of runs. If 00z Gfs and company come in snowier than 18z, we’re still very much in business being 60+ hours out. But we really do need that trend to start and be pronounced tonight. Wouldn’t be the first or last time we scored a coup within 48-72 hours. Might be wishful thinking - especially for the 95 crew, but I do think there are many locations in NoVA and C MD that are still very much in the game. Time is running thin though. As far as my general area over to highway 15 and out to Winchester and points W, we are still very much in the game for a significant snowfall. Agree here. I said yesterday that I didn’t think we’d really have the whole picture until Friday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Pummeled. Gotta ride the edge to get the best goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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