Warm Nose Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: NAM takes MBY from 14F at 7am on Sunday to 41F at 1:00am on Monday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 25 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: NAM does seem to trend warmer so that's a plus?? The HoCo jackpot is a plot twist I did not see coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 One thing for sure. This thing is hauling ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Going from single digits Sunday morning to rain. I’m going to need a case of alcoholic beverages to cope with this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_snow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 guyz give it to me straight, is this storm a bust for DCA? 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Going from single digits Sunday morning to rain. I’m going to need a case of alcoholic beverages to cope with this one. We do wind and rapid warm ups quite well in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, jon_snow said: guyz give it to me straight, is this storm a bust for DCA? Give it until 12z monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: NAM sleets to Erie LOL https://youtu.be/dmHpXfP7S0k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, jon_snow said: guyz give it to me straight, is this storm a bust for DCA? What’s your definition of bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, AU74 said: https://youtu.be/dmHpXfP7S0k Appropriate for this thread: something else that falls seriously short of perceptions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, jon_snow said: guyz give it to me straight, is this storm a bust for DCA? Yes! DC south and east get an inch or two of snow - at best - then it quickly turns to rain, and almost as quickly ends. Even the areas west, closer to I-81 will receive less than currently advertised. The trends among nearly all of the guidance has been for a stronger system with a sfc low track farther west. This results in an inevitably minor event, esp. for the I-95 corridor and most of the Shenandoah Valley as well. 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: Yes! DC south and east get an inch or two of snow - at best - then it quickly turns to rain, and almost as quickly ends. Even the areas west, closer to I-81 will receive less than currently advertised. The trends among nearly all of guidance has been for a stronger system with a sfc low track farther west. This results in an inevitably minor event, esp. for the I-95 coordior and most of the Shenandoah Valley as well. You may end up right, but the current guidance (GFS and Euro) show a pretty significant event in the Shenandoah Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: Yes! DC south and east get an inch or two of snow - at best - then it quickly turns to rain, and almost as quickly ends. Even the areas west, closer to I-81 will receive less than currently advertised. The trends among nearly all of guidance has been for a stronger system with a sfc low track farther west. This results in an inevitably minor event, esp. for the I-95 coordior and most of the Shenandoah Valley as well. Minor event for the Shenandoah Valley?? Ok Deb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: You may end up right, but the current guidance (GFS and Euro) show a pretty significant event in the Shenandoah Valley. I don’t see it happening with the sfc and H5 low tracks. They will at least change to sleet, if not mix with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowfan96 said: I don’t see it happening with the sfc and H5 low tracks. They will at least change to sleet, if not mix with rain. You're not quite living up to your name with this stuff! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WVsnowlover said: Minor event for the Shenandoah Valley?? Ok Deb.. I can almost guarantee the majority of 00z guidance will start to fall more in line with the 18z NAM. The NAM is consistently under-valued in these scenarios. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 the hand wringing in here over the 84-hr NAM is pathetic. get ahold of yourselves weenies 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: I can almost guarantee the majority of 00z guidance will start to fall more in line with the 18z NAM. The NAM is consistently under-valued in these scenarios. The NAM is undervalued at 84 hr with numerous upper air features and phasing at play? How, exactly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: The NAM is undervalued at 84 hr with numerous upper air features and phasing at play? How, exactly? Please stop feeding the troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, TSG said: the hand wringing in here over the 84-hr NAM is pathetic. get ahold of yourselves weenies Plus it’s not a forecast anyway, just another 6 hour example of a possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: The NAM is undervalued at 84 hr with numerous upper air features and phasing at play? How, exactly? My only point is the NAM doesn’t get enough credit, esp. in these types of scenarios/set-ups. It tends to be more reliable and accurate than many have come to believe. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: My only point is the NAM doesn’t get enough credit, esp. in these types of scenarios/set-ups. It tends to be more reliable and accurate than many have come to believe. It's unreliable near the end of its run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I mean if I was gonna pick a mountain to die on it certainly wouldnt be the NAM. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just sitting back and watching the show 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: My only point is the NAM doesn’t get enough credit, esp. in these types of scenarios/set-ups. It tends to be more reliable and accurate than many have come to believe. You must be new here. Every been NAM'ed? Around here we go with the snowiest model as gospel. During a good NAM'ing we bow to "king NAM" lol. Anyway.. GFS time. Sorry for banter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: My only point is the NAM doesn’t get enough credit, esp. in these types of scenarios/set-ups. It tends to be more reliable and accurate than many have come to believe. This is true, but when the GFS and NAM have large synoptic differences at longer ranges, it's not often that the NAM will be correct. It's simply a lot to ask of *any* regional model to nail synoptic details beyond day 2. One the snyoptics align, one should absolutely use the NAM (and preferably the NAM Nest) for temperatures and important mesoscale details. 8 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 37 minutes ago, jon_snow said: guyz give it to me straight, is this storm a bust for DCA? Couldn't tell you, since I'm a gal. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Let's not forget about sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 My opinion of the gfs is it should be ever so slightly better than 12z for us, h5 and bit S/E along with the precip shield & the N/S phasing piece is in about the same location. Confluence in the NE is barely NE of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The NAM could be right, but I have no idea why any I-81 folks would freak out. The GFS and Euro have showed adjustments here and there almost every run for 48 hours now and the end result is literally the exact same each time. Like Bobchill said, it seems like the tracks are laid down and the storm has nowhere to go but along the tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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