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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, Ji said:

me too lol. Im enjoying you troll and making memes since you have retired and am envisioning that life so im trying to make myself a better poster!

if you keep it up i may actually take you off ignore :ph34r:

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7 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Pretty good mood in this thread all things considered.  Getting 10” of snow last week probably helps things for many of us.  

i mean my expectation for this la nina winter was pretty bad...and then December came lol....so yea

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13 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Pretty good mood in this thread all things considered.  Getting 10” of snow last week probably helps things for many of us.  

Looks like many will hit or be above (I'm already above) climo from this storm. By mid January. In a La Nopenotthisyeara.

There's reason to be not so gloomy this year :)

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We've talked a lot about 2/14/14 with this storm and there are certainly similarities.  Even down to a northern stream s/w over the Northern Plains.  But there was more spacing between them and the northern stream s/w didn't dive south and partially phase with the coastal storm, and the coastal storm stayed offshore.  It had a decent antecedent airmass, but the high also wasn't locked in and the 850 temps and surface temps warmed quite a bit during the day.  

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2014/us0213.php

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6 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/01/13/winter-storm-east-coast-snow/
 

CWG’s write up, nothing new or terribly revelatory. My wish for 2022 is that the Post springs for an editor for this specific author. His writing is just *awful* and it drives me crazy that’s he’s become somehow the lead communicator for CWG…

Written like it should be read by one of those fast-talking radio news guys from the 1940s. Seriously, try sounding it out in your head in that mode. LOL

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I didn't dig much into the individual members but EPS MSLP and 500 mean track backs up the OP well.   MSLP track is central NC to RIC to NE MD/SE PA.  There's still about 15 or so that track it east of DC over the Bay/Delmarva.  And notably bigger spread shows up by H96 when the mean is over SE PA/NE MD.  

 

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I didn't dig much into the individual members but EPS MSLP and 500 mean track backs up the OP well.   MSLP track is central NC to RIC to NE MD/SE PA.  There's still about 15 or so that track it east of DC over the Bay/Delmarva.  And notably bigger spread shows up by H96 when the mean is over SE PA/NE MD.  

 

Tell me you are going to McHenry for this one.

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Written like it should be read by one of those fast-talking radio news guys from the 1940s. Seriously, try sounding it out in your head in that mode. LOL

Lol I think he's a forum member

"Winter storm watches and warnings have been hoisted in the narrow zone of real estate likely to pick up a good thump of snow, with a widespread 6 to 10 inches and localized one-foot totals slated to fall."

 

 

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11 minutes ago, WinterFire said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/01/13/winter-storm-east-coast-snow/
 

CWG’s write up, nothing new or terribly revelatory. My wish for 2022 is that the Post springs for an editor for this specific author. His writing is just *awful* and it drives me crazy that’s he’s become somehow the lead communicator for CWG…

He’s certainly ruffled a lot of feathers lately for a bunch of other reasons. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

No I dont. But there is a clear warm nose at 850 and 925 this run. Could be snow I suppose. 

I'm looking at the sounding on Pivotal - at 1a Monday, the precip type map shows sleet over Winchester.  I clicked on the sounding and its basically juuuuuuust under freezing from 800 down with winds at 850 coming out of the NW - S/SE of Winchester is basically 0 for those levels.  I only see the 3 hour panels so perhaps in the hours between 10p and 1a there's some mixing going on - but I don't think it's hours upon hours.

Those exact details will be worked out tomorrow and Saturday for sure.

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