WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The Euro is quite a sleet bomb out here. Temps plunge Monday night and turn it all into concrete. Would be a hell of a mess as modelled. Do you have a sounding that supports that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Tenman knows his highs. I agree the models are overdoing the jump NW. not by a lot but just about 50-75 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: What is approximate start time on Euro for south and western DC burbs? 5:54 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, ravensrule said: What happens if you soft?. You get mush…pretty much what this storm looks to deliver. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 First round of brine on some streets in Arlington. #itshappening 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Killing me I do what I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/01/13/winter-storm-east-coast-snow/ CWG’s write up, nothing new or terribly revelatory. My wish for 2022 is that the Post springs for an editor for this specific author. His writing is just *awful* and it drives me crazy that’s he’s become somehow the lead communicator for CWG… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 We've talked a lot about 2/14/14 with this storm and there are certainly similarities. Even down to a northern stream s/w over the Northern Plains. But there was more spacing between them and the northern stream s/w didn't dive south and partially phase with the coastal storm, and the coastal storm stayed offshore. It had a decent antecedent airmass, but the high also wasn't locked in and the 850 temps and surface temps warmed quite a bit during the day. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2014/us0213.php 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterFire said: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/01/13/winter-storm-east-coast-snow/ CWG’s write up, nothing new or terribly revelatory. My wish for 2022 is that the Post springs for an editor for this specific author. His writing is just *awful* and it drives me crazy that’s he’s become somehow the lead communicator for CWG… Written like it should be read by one of those fast-talking radio news guys from the 1940s. Seriously, try sounding it out in your head in that mode. LOL 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Tenman knows his highs. I agree the models are overdoing the jump NW. not by a lot but just about 50-75 miles Nevermind the low to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I didn't dig much into the individual members but EPS MSLP and 500 mean track backs up the OP well. MSLP track is central NC to RIC to NE MD/SE PA. There's still about 15 or so that track it east of DC over the Bay/Delmarva. And notably bigger spread shows up by H96 when the mean is over SE PA/NE MD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Do you have a sounding that supports that? No I dont. But there is a clear warm nose at 850 and 925 this run. Could be snow I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I didn't dig much into the individual members but EPS MSLP and 500 mean track backs up the OP well. MSLP track is central NC to RIC to NE MD/SE PA. There's still about 15 or so that track it east of DC over the Bay/Delmarva. And notably bigger spread shows up by H96 when the mean is over SE PA/NE MD. Tell me you are going to McHenry for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Written like it should be read by one of those fast-talking radio news guys from the 1940s. Seriously, try sounding it out in your head in that mode. LOL Lol I think he's a forum member "Winter storm watches and warnings have been hoisted in the narrow zone of real estate likely to pick up a good thump of snow, with a widespread 6 to 10 inches and localized one-foot totals slated to fall." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, WinterFire said: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/01/13/winter-storm-east-coast-snow/ CWG’s write up, nothing new or terribly revelatory. My wish for 2022 is that the Post springs for an editor for this specific author. His writing is just *awful* and it drives me crazy that’s he’s become somehow the lead communicator for CWG… He’s certainly ruffled a lot of feathers lately for a bunch of other reasons. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: No I dont. But there is a clear warm nose at 850 and 925 this run. Could be snow I suppose. Always depends on how deep the layers are and how intense the precip is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: No I dont. But there is a clear warm nose at 850 and 925 this run. Could be snow I suppose. I'm looking at the sounding on Pivotal - at 1a Monday, the precip type map shows sleet over Winchester. I clicked on the sounding and its basically juuuuuuust under freezing from 800 down with winds at 850 coming out of the NW - S/SE of Winchester is basically 0 for those levels. I only see the 3 hour panels so perhaps in the hours between 10p and 1a there's some mixing going on - but I don't think it's hours upon hours. Those exact details will be worked out tomorrow and Saturday for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Tell me you are going to McHenry for this one. Oh yeah...will be there tomorrow evening through Tuesday. Mountains look to get smoked and upslope will be cranking Monday afternoon into the night. They need the snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Nevermind the low to the north No doubt that feature is daunting. Time will tell. 72 hours until game time and 48 hours until all the players are in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Not worried about track west of DC with a 1030 to wnw and 1030 to ne. Would love to see that ne high be 100-150 miles further west come game time. I appreciate how adamant you are about this, and I REALLY hope your take turns out correct, but I think the writing is on the wall with this one. All the models are picking up on the jog of the surface low to the NW, and it's happening regardless of what happens earlier in the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I’m going to rely on the hills of sugarloaf to Damascus to protect the Frederick side, or at least delay the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Oh yeah...will be there tomorrow evening through Tuesday. Mountains look to get smoked and upslope will be cranking Monday afternoon into the night. They need the snow. I have wisp tickets for Monday... not sure I'll be able to get to the mountain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 NAM is running! Never Accept Model results 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, mdhokie said: I have wisp tickets for Monday... not sure I'll be able to get to the mountain! CWG's latest facebook post says only 1-4" for DC area, so I am sure you'll be fine - after all, they've never grossly underforecast amounts before lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, mdhokie said: I have wisp tickets for Monday... not sure I'll be able to get to the mountain! You may just have to ski down your driveway. We were planning on going skiing Monday too but we live up an unpaved hill so I highly doubt I'll be heading out Monday -- maybe some night skiing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, gymengineer said: He’s certainly ruffled a lot of feathers lately for a bunch of other reasons. Like what? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Like what? He suckerpunched an old lady and kicked her Yorkie. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I think there was a discussion in the Banter thread a few days ago, if you scroll back past about 70 memes from 2015 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: He suckerpunched an old lady and kicked her Yorkie. It’s true. I saw the video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterFire said: I think there was a discussion in the Banter thread a few days ago, if you scroll back past about 70 memes from 2015 lol I thought this was the banter thread, given the 70 or so memes from 2015 that were posted here this morning 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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