mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Thats pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Where is Jebman? We need some positivity around here. I could be in denial, but I don’t think anything is set in stone yet. Look what happened on Jan 3rd - from nothing to 6-12 inches with 48 hours notice. I don’t expect to have all snow, but we could end up with snow to sleet and back to a thump of snow. It definitely wouldn’t be the 1st time the models couldn’t figure out a coastal. I’m in Western Fairfax, so we are still in the game for a decent amount at this point, but I hope for some shifts eastward in the next 24. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 1 32 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 We've resorted to memes and pics. We are at stage 4 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: OMG. This is hilarious! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The best part about this is that all 5 of these things are happening simultaneously. And that’s just at my desk lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It’s not really going to be about latitude here. Our issue is how far west this storm comes, allowing an easterly wind to torch upper levels. You can be at the PA/MD border north of Baltimore or up in Philly or New York City and still see the same result as places further south than you along the same longitude. There is going to be an east to west snow gradient. Not the typical “as long as you’re further north” deal we have around these parts. Could very well see places like Manchester get 2-4” before a slopfest occurs as Emmitsburg or Hancock gets 6-12+, despite having a similar latitude. Could also see DC with more snow than Baltimore because of this. If this low indeed tracks over Baltimore or west, York & Lancaster PA will meet a similar fate as Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It seems like TT is showing different things on different devices. My Monday 06z frame looks nothing like anything anyone posted here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Going to Charlottesville on purpose is, indeed, a mistake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I've seen this script before, as have many (all?) of you being active in this and the Eastern US weather boards over the last 15+ years. My bar along and east of 95 here in the beltway region is 2.5-3.5" before the flip. Yes, with strong WAA and a retreating high the snow always seems to come in faster. ...but then the changeover seems to happen a little quicker too. I have no issues with the GFS snow maps given what we know now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Going to Charlottesville on purpose is, indeed, a mistake. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We've resorted to memes and pics. We are at stage 4 DC and SE crew 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: It’s not really going to be about latitude here. Our issue is how far west this storm comes, allowing an easterly wind to torch upper levels. You can be at the PA/MD border north of Baltimore or up in Philly or New York City and still see the same result as places further south than you along the same longitude. There is going to be an east to west snow gradient. Not the typical “as long as you’re further north” deal we have around these parts. Could very well see places like Manchester get 2-4” before a slopfest occurs as Emmitsburg or Hancock gets 6-12+, despite having a similar latitude. Could also see DC with more snow than Baltimore because of this. If this low indeed tracks over Baltimore or west, York & Lancaster PA will meet a similar fate as Baltimore. places further north will hold on to the column a bit longer than places south. it will probably even out when all is said and done, as it will be snowing in DC before it snows up our way. But we won't mix as soon as they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Automator Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Going to Charlottesville on purpose is, indeed, a mistake. But if you do come, eat at a few restaurants while you're here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This whole thing could be a rainstorm. But all I know is if the track was perfect 72+ hours out, no one would believe we are locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Automator said: But if you do come, eat at a few restaurants while you're here. Who knew the Mayor of Charlottesville was a weather weenie? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 gfs hr 84 sounding is still really good for the burbs, at least. even dc is still below freezing at the mid levels. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2022011312&fh=84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: Who knew the Mayor of Charlottesville was a weather weenie? Yeah is that you Lloyd?! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, mappy said: places further north will hold on to the column a bit longer than places south. it will probably even out when all is said and done, as it will be snowing in DC before it snows up our way. But we won't mix as soon as they do. Precisely. I meant more in the way of the outcome (snowfall totals) than timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Precisely. I meant more in the way of the outcome (snowfall totals) than timing GFS gives me 1" qpf. My total will be more than DC verbatim. Regardless of the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, RIC_WX said: This whole thing could be a rainstorm. But all I know is if the track was perfect 72+ hours out, no one would believe we are locked in. 100%. I said this last night. If we were jackpotting at this juncture, it would ultimately not turn out that way. The problem is, there’s no trend east really occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, RIC_WX said: This whole thing could be a rainstorm. But all I know is if the track was perfect 72+ hours out, no one would believe we are locked in. Its not going to be entirely a rainstorm. The airmass is pretty solid. We all are going to see some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Meme to QPF ratio is getting out of control 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Paleocene said: Meme to QPF ratio is getting out of control A PDS just went out for widespread memes for the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Hoping we see a sub 60 hour steal like last Monday, but the windows rapidly closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: It seems like TT is showing different things on different devices. My Monday 06z frame looks nothing like anything anyone posted here... That’s an interesting pic. Could be graphics, but it looks like a dual low center. Get rid of that, if it’s real, and this becomes a much different picture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Big dawg Euro is running! Is this our last hope? Of course not, this thing is still 72H away... but I am ing hard about this storm, so. LFG 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Paleocene said: I am ing hard about this storm Don’t let @mappysee this 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t let @mappysee this Or RR. He will fight the competition 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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