clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 As depicted it is still a hell of a storm for DC itself. The city being the actual dividing line between 6-10inches and a shit ton of ice on top. Icing on the cake is DC would be about the only major city to see actual snow if it verified. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Good point @brooklynwx99 how often do you see a closed 500mb low on ensemble guidance at D5/6? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The Euro would be an incredible storm for all the sub-forum west of the bay. There is going to be a huge thump of snow before any changeover if the current 5H and SLP setup hold. A jog further east with the SLP and you'll be looking at an all-timer around these parts. Still so many details to go through. A storm is very much on the table now. 16 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: As depicted it is still a hell of a storm for DC itself. The city being the actual dividing line between 6-10inches and a shit ton of ice on top. Icing on the cake is DC would be about the only major city to see actual snow if it verified. Yeah would be a cool storm with the deform swinging through in daylight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: expectations any time the models show anything even resembling a major storm = I know. its why we have so many who whine when they only get 3-6 instead of 16-20. sigh. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: As depicted it is still a hell of a storm for DC itself. The city being the actual dividing line between 6-10inches and a shit ton of ice on top. Icing on the cake is DC would be about the only major city to see actual snow if it verified. I was actually going to ask if DC goes above freezing at the surface on the Euro, or if they switch to rain. I saw that plot a couple of pages ago showing like 0.25"+ ice in the area...whew! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: I was actually going to ask if DC goes above freezing at the surface on the Euro, or if they switch to rain. I saw that plot a couple of pages ago showing like 0.25"+ ice in the area...whew! I'll take the over 500 lights flickering obs within the first hour of precip 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Transplant Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, Ji said: 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, the modeling today is tightly clustered that's for sure. Good thing we still have plenty of time for changes Ie...congrats buffalo? Hopefully you can say those words about 11:30 on Saturday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I was actually going to ask if DC goes above freezing at the surface on the Euro, or if they switch to rain. I saw that plot a couple of pages ago showing like 0.25"+ ice in the area...whew! The only legit ice storms I remember in DC proper were January 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: As depicted it is still a hell of a storm for DC itself. The city being the actual dividing line between 6-10inches and a shit ton of ice on top. Icing on the cake is DC would be about the only major city to see actual snow if it verified. I'm debating details that ultimately won't matter in 12 hours (and details that the EURO cant be trusted to get right), but the EURO pushes temps at DCA to 37 by hour 141 with driving rain. Temps recover a bit for the deform band and would surely recover some snow out of it but verbatim that's pretty close to a cliff jumper run for those in the Beltway compared to the deck pics you (and me in CHO, if that verifies) would post. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I know. its why we have so many who whine when they only get 3-6 instead of 16-20. sigh. It's all about the storm and expectations. If there is a big coastal storm, yes, I'm going to be mad if I get 6 inches immediately washed away as the snow turns over to rain. But if It's a clipper or something and I'm getting 1-3 or 2-4, that's awesome. Or just a quick moving wave that lays down a nice 3-6/4-8, great! You only get so many chances in life to experience a HECS. And there are only so many opportunities to get one, so when the chance comes along, you don't want to swing and miss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, mappy said: why? just keep your expectations in check and you'll be fine. Good advice. Work is kicking my ass and interfering with my favorite hobby lol. But yes, I don’t get too excited until we get into the 48-72 hour range. If this looks good on Thursday all bets are off on containing my excitement. Hope you are having a great start to the New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Hopefully the EPS matches the other OP's ensembles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'm debating details that ultimately won't matter in 12 hours (and details that the EURO cant be trusted to get right), but the EURO pushes temps at DCA to 37 by hour 141 with driving rain. Temps recover a bit for the deform band and would surely recover some snow out of it but verbatim that's pretty close to a cliff jumper run for those in the Beltway compared to the deck pics you (and me in CHO, if that verifies) would post. Stop the storm is 6 days away, there's going to be massive shift 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, H2O said: Either way I know you'll keep us posted on how well it does out there Doubt it. I don’t post much during events. But I will keep you updated on how it’s looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I love this, but I’m either smart enough or dumb enough to know that this isn’t as far west as it can get. Ocean storm still finds a way to screw. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: Stop the storm is 6 days away, there's going to be massive shift what, why? models nail temperature forecasts to the degree, in complicated setups, at 6+ day lead times, all the time. oh wait.... 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Stop the storm is 6 days away, there's going to be massive shift Perhaps explain why you think this instead of just stating it. And … pro tip … don’t get in a debate with @dtk. It won’t end well for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Stop the storm is 6 days away, there's going to be massive shiftI think you missed the numerous caveats I gave I the first sentence. Not much to do 5-6 days in advance but discuss the model runs… I find it fun to look at the micro level. Anyways… EPS is looking nice. Details to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I'll take the over 500 lights flickering obs within the first hour of precip Well my power just cut out for a brief second for no other apparent reason, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's all about the storm and expectations. If there is a big coastal storm, yes, I'm going to be mad if I get 6 inches immediately washed away as the snow turns over to rain. But if It's a clipper or something and I'm getting 1-3 or 2-4, that's awesome. Or just a quick moving wave that lays down a nice 3-6/4-8, great! You only get so many chances in life to experience a HECS. And there are only so many opportunities to get one, so when the chance comes along, you don't want to swing and miss. I don't think you or I have much to worry with the snow being washed away. I don't see that happening. Sleet is in play, maybe also zr, but I don't think it will even be a major ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Fozz said: I don't think you or I have much to worry with the snow being washed away. I don't see that happening. Sleet is in play, maybe also zr, but I don't think it will even be a major ice storm. Sleet is in play for all of us. It is so rare for a Coastal to stay all snow in the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, dtk said: what, why? models nail temperature forecasts to the degree, in complicated setups, at 6+ day lead times, all the time. oh wait.... If they show 33 and rain at DCA 10 days out they will be right. Models are assassin accurate with that. Ninja like. Jason Bourne like. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 EPS is absolutely gorgeous 16 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Pretty sweet. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 12z 00z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Thank the heavens. EPS tempered the temporary disappointment with the OP 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Thank the heavens. EPS tempered the temporary disappointment with the OP I think that L over Florence, SC will be the one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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