mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Chris78 said: Seems the general idea has been locked in for a couple days now. We just have to hope that the WWA precip comes in hot and heavy and the mid levels can hang on for a few extra hours. A couple of hours of hanging on the mid levels could make a big difference if we are talking 1 - 2" per hour rates. All 3 major globals seem to be in step with each other with some minor differences. Can't speak for out your way, but I looked at soundings on the GFS for up here, there is the most subtle warm nose at hr87, with temps at 30/31. By 90 I'm at 32, but it would probably be paste bombs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Can't speak for out your way, but I looked at soundings on the GFS for up here, there is the most subtle warm nose at hr87, with temps at 30/31. By 90 I'm at 32, but it would probably be paste bombs. That makes me feel good about the setup here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: Maybe Joe B is deleting the west tracks from his maps to make the snow mean higher for clicks..... Ensemble-sharpie-gate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 No way we are at the final solution yet. For me I don’t like that it is now flying through here. When you can measure the duration by how many Netflix shows you can get in, that’s too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Can't speak for out your way, but I looked at soundings on the GFS for up here, there is the most subtle warm nose at hr87, with temps at 30/31. By 90 I'm at 32, but it would probably be paste bombs. I'm not looking at soundings here cause I know the entire column here will be 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That makes me feel good about the setup here. you should have felt good days ago, friend. we are good. Even the hours where temps and the warm nose are being a pain, if rates are good enough, it won't matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: I'm not looking at soundings here cause I know the entire column here will be I'm sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 55 minutes ago, mappy said: I still think the low won't track that far inland. No reason other than atmospheric memory. And maybe a little weenie thrown in. Atmospheric Weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm sorry ITs ok!! If it does manage to move east at all I'll take it but not gonna cry over this one. This is how I feel 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Atmospheric Weenie? Works for me! 1 minute ago, H2O said: ITs ok!! If it does manage to move east at all I'll take it but not gonna cry over this one. This is how I feel lololololol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No way we are at the final solution yet. For me I don’t like that it is now flying through here. When you can measure the duration by how many Netflix shows you can get in, that’s too fast. Your in a better spot than northern MD in my opinion I guess it has to do with the location of where the low gets pulled NW but all models have a surge in the mids that cut through Central md and pulls nw up into South Central PA. I think you latitude helps you out in Winchester as the low is closer to your Lat . Before it gets pulled west. If you look at 850s all models have this carve out with Winchesters 850s staying in a better spot. I think Winchester and a bit south of there might be the best spot to be in the sub forum other than maybe the western Md/ WV mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, mappy said: Can't speak for out your way, but I looked at soundings on the GFS for up here, there is the most subtle warm nose at hr87, with temps at 30/31. By 90 I'm at 32, but it would probably be paste bombs. Any snow is good snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Your in a better spot than northern MD in my opinion I guess it has to do with the location of where the low gets pulled NW but all models have a surge in the mids that cut through Central md and pulls nw up into South Central PA. I think you latitude helps you out in Winchester as the low is closer to your Lat . Before it gets pulled west. If you look at 850s all models have this carve out with Winchesters 850s staying in a better spot. I think Winchester and a bit south of there might be the best spot to be in the sub forum other than maybe the western Md/ WV mountains Again, I don’t think we are seeing the end result. What looks good now could look worse later. Of course that works both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Again, I don’t think we are seeing the end result. What looks good now could look worse later. Of course that works both ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Again, I don’t think we are seeing the end result. What looks good now could look worse later. Of course that works both ways. That happens a lot at the bar 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Any snow is good snow. Sure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 1 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 OMG this board is on fire today! Frikin hilarious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Thats pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Where is Jebman? We need some positivity around here. I could be in denial, but I don’t think anything is set in stone yet. Look what happened on Jan 3rd - from nothing to 6-12 inches with 48 hours notice. I don’t expect to have all snow, but we could end up with snow to sleet and back to a thump of snow. It definitely wouldn’t be the 1st time the models couldn’t figure out a coastal. I’m in Western Fairfax, so we are still in the game for a decent amount at this point, but I hope for some shifts eastward in the next 24. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 1 32 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 We've resorted to memes and pics. We are at stage 4 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: OMG. This is hilarious! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The best part about this is that all 5 of these things are happening simultaneously. And that’s just at my desk lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It’s not really going to be about latitude here. Our issue is how far west this storm comes, allowing an easterly wind to torch upper levels. You can be at the PA/MD border north of Baltimore or up in Philly or New York City and still see the same result as places further south than you along the same longitude. There is going to be an east to west snow gradient. Not the typical “as long as you’re further north” deal we have around these parts. Could very well see places like Manchester get 2-4” before a slopfest occurs as Emmitsburg or Hancock gets 6-12+, despite having a similar latitude. Could also see DC with more snow than Baltimore because of this. If this low indeed tracks over Baltimore or west, York & Lancaster PA will meet a similar fate as Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It seems like TT is showing different things on different devices. My Monday 06z frame looks nothing like anything anyone posted here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Going to Charlottesville on purpose is, indeed, a mistake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I've seen this script before, as have many (all?) of you being active in this and the Eastern US weather boards over the last 15+ years. My bar along and east of 95 here in the beltway region is 2.5-3.5" before the flip. Yes, with strong WAA and a retreating high the snow always seems to come in faster. ...but then the changeover seems to happen a little quicker too. I have no issues with the GFS snow maps given what we know now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Going to Charlottesville on purpose is, indeed, a mistake. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We've resorted to memes and pics. We are at stage 4 DC and SE crew 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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