mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Come on now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Going full RR here this morning!! That's 2 comments you made that he would blush at!! If he's capable of blushing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS really clustering the lows just SW of OBX at 84, so pretty much the same as 06z but higher confidence. The h5 look is stronger and a little slower though so I think it’s gonna be an adjustment W/NW. Not horrible or anything, just looks to continue emphasizing that any fully offshore path is either out the window or just about climbing out. Still room for a track east of the bay though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Going full RR here this morning!! That's 2 comments you made that he would blush at!! If he's capable of blushing. I think I've missed something here..."RR"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I know it’s a broken record but GEFS coming in east of op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 To me, this setup seems pretty reminiscent of 12/16/20, just displaced a bit to the south at the start. We scoffed at the unconventional track that guidance was showing (and I believe the low did track SE of where it was progged), but it became clear that the ULL being vaulted to the north would definitely scour any cold that was present, regardless of if the LP track was "typical" or not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Going full RR here this morning!! That's 2 comments you made that he would blush at!! If he's capable of blushing. lol those were mild 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, baltosquid said: GEFS really clustering the lows just SW of OBX at 84, so pretty much the same as 06z but higher confidence. The h5 look is stronger and a little slower though so I think it’s gonna be an adjustment W/NW. Not horrible or anything, just looks to continue emphasizing that any fully offshore path is either out the window or just about climbing out. Still room for a track east of the bay though. it's an inland runner right now. no two ways around it. the antecedent high is in a good spot, but then moves offshore too quickly, for whatever reason. really need a less amped system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I think I've missed something here..."RR"? ravensrule 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, mappy said: thats what she said 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, mappy said: And maybe a little weenie thrown in. And that’s what he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: And that’s what he said That's what you said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 FWIW, CMC h5 early on is a good chunk SE/faster. Would do a lot for my optimism for a good metro thump if a model that’s been so stubbornly gung-ho about Hagerstown-Harrisburg as of late lightens up on that a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Lol never mind. Did not lighten up on that at all, phasing happens fast and swings the thing way west. Low never even gets east of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 FWIW at this point. I guess GEFS just sucks for this storm? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, baltosquid said: FWIW, CMC h5 early on is a good chunk SE/faster. Would do a lot for my optimism for a good metro thump if a model that’s been so stubbornly gung-ho about Hagerstown-Harrisburg as of late lightens up on that a bit. 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Lol never mind. Did not lighten up on that at all, phasing happens fast and swings the thing way west. Low never even gets east of DC. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And that’s what he said I would hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Lol never mind. Did not lighten up on that at all, phasing happens fast and swings the thing way west. Low never even gets east of DC. Yeah the CMC is the worst case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, 87storms said: it's an inland runner right now. no two ways around it. the antecedent high is in a good spot, but then moves offshore too quickly, for whatever reason. really need a less amped system. The analysis is good based on the models. No argument there. But if this was showing a perfect storm track 90 hours out we wouldn’t be saying this is locked in. Well we might say it but we’d all be expecting the next model run to crush our dreams. This time I’m going to keep expecting the next run to bring home the bacon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: I would hope so I’ll show myself out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll show myself out It made me laugh, and I needed it. So thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: FWIW at this point. I guess GEFS just sucks for this storm? Nice cluster off the Delmarva. Riding the GEFS until 12z tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, baltosquid said: FWIW, CMC h5 early on is a good chunk SE/faster. Would do a lot for my optimism for a good metro thump if a model that’s been so stubbornly gung-ho about Hagerstown-Harrisburg as of late lightens up on that a bit. it is faster, which is better for snow prospects given the eroding high. i liked that part of the trend. many of the 90s noreasters had snow/mix/rain back to mix/snow, so this isn't really anything new. even in 93, 96 and 03 the 95 corridor switched to sleet/fzr for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: FWIW at this point. I guess GEFS just sucks for this storm? Split that inner circle and you’re good. Typically we rely upon ensembles up until about this time. For some reason we are super fixated on the ops this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: It made me laugh, and I needed it. So thanks. I provide services. Glad to help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: The analysis is good based on the models. No argument there. But if this was showing a perfect storm track 90 hours out we wouldn’t be saying this is locked in. Well we might say it but we’d all be expecting the next model run to crush our dreams. This time I’m going to keep expecting the next run to bring home the bacon. oh, i'm still locked in on tracking this one lol, but starting to see some consensus that favors a more inland track instead of a wall to wall snowstorm, but we'll see...who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This thing is hauling. Any change over and warmup will be short lived. Won’t be long until those winds shift back to nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, 87storms said: it is faster, which is better for snow prospects given the eroding high. i liked that part of the trend. many of the 90s noreasters had snow/mix/rain back to mix/snow, so this isn't really anything new. even in 93, 96 and 03 the 95 corridor switched to sleet/fzr for a time. snow/mix/rain back to mix/snow would be great..but this, as depicted, goes from a short bit of snow to a long bit of driving rain...not as much fun as it could be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This thing is hauling. Any change over and warmup will be short lived. Won’t be long until those winds shift back to nw Are you going to be out in WV for this one? Will pad a few inches+ on top of what falls from upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 CMC also headed the right direction 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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