lpaschall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, lpaschall said: GFS farther south and east at HR66 Same observation at HR72 High farther south as well though more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Had to get something out of the 6 years of college. 850 low is going to track just over DC or to the west. No major improvement. Still a decent front-end storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS farther north and east HR 78 High slightly south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Well the H5 is worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 deleted - flipped on me to previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The flow in front of the low on h5 just looks like it’s so S/N oriented that the storm is still locked in for a hard turn n/nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It think it's much more informative to track changes at H5 than in the surface pressure fields. Surface features can be deceptive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Surface Low track looks way better to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, MN Transplant said: Had to get something out of the 6 years of college. 850 low is going to track just over DC or to the west. No major improvement. Still a decent front-end storm. Yes seems like the same evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Sernest14 said: Low jumps from offshore Wilmington to South Boston from 81/84 Where the L is on the map isn't necessarily indicative of the low "jumping" from one place to the next. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 So frustrating. Things start out promising, but end the same way. Nice little thump at 84. Cake is starting to cool and set. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This little new piece of energy pulled the storm in some again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks like a lot of us avoid a drenching rain, so that's a plus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So frustrating. Things start out promising, but end the same way. Nice little thump at 84. Cake is starting to cool and set. Despite all of the little changes across all the models, we just keep coming up with the same thing. Front end thump to rain for DC. It has looked like this for days and I really doubt it is going to change now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Thump to slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Same time Monday on TT 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I’ll take thump to dry slot and run with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Same general outcome wrt snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 81 special; huge cutoff up 95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Should be fun for a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The major improvement, as others indicate, is that the 95 gets its snow and then the changeover is short and then dry. With the colder air coming in on the backside, a chance to hang on to snow/icepack. I really doubt that 15" comes close to verifying in CHO. Huge Ws for I-81 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: Same general outcome wrt snow. Meh. I like this map better. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Same time Monday on TT I suppose it ultimately doesn't seem to matter -- you can see it's having difficulty resolving the exact placement of the low. As others have noted, this outcome seems pretty locked regardless of exactly where the model decides the SLP is. It's looked like this for 2 days straight in one form or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Despite all of the little changes across all the models, we just keep coming up with the same thing. Front end thump to rain for DC. It has looked like this for days and I really doubt it is going to change now. I'm starting to feel the same. I'm trying to keep huffing the hope-ium, but I'm getting diminishing returns at this point. Still time for changes, just not sure the we can get the huge changes we need. My best case now is for a significant thump, dryslot. The stingy ass I-81 western crew still look good tho. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'll be in MD for this one so hopefully it works out. Trend is clearly east at 12z so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I am sure someone will correct me and looking forward to it but shouldn't we be looking at the NAM at short range and comparing to the GFS at the same time frame to determine trends? I understand that at long range the NAM is not accurate, but I thought it was more accurate at short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Thump to slot. thats what she said 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: Same general outcome wrt snow. Over a 10 inch difference from D.C to Charlottesville. WOW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Same time Monday on TT Its dark and I'll be asleep anyway.. approved! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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