NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: per the weather.us maps, the RA/SN/IP line goes right up 95. Depth map so hardly perfect, but for fun until we get the better maps. Slightly surprised its not better around DC. Actually, the culprit is fairly clear -- DC and close burbs get dryslotted hard for 6 hours in the peak of the storm. edit: that said, ICON isn't gonna nail anything like that from this range. the low track is better, all that should be noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The surface low path on the ICON is interesting. Just offshore SC/NC, over the southern Outer Banks, and then it curls back under the 500 low west of Va Beach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 RGEM is well north of the NAM. Leads me to believe the GGEM will be as well. The ICON is a weenie run for us western folks. Best possible pass for us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: Along with a lot of what has been said, I'm looking at the confluence and the heights around the Great Lakes. Lower heights and more confluence is a good thing to help keep this thing a little more east, but I can't get rid of this nagging feeling that all guidance will pull this thing over or west of DC regardless of the look leading in. It is frustrating really. It's just a little hallway of weakness to the north/nw on approach. But since it creates that hallway, it doesn't matter much how good looks or where it's located as it turns northward. The whole trip north the upper and surface lows are gunning for that hallway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: per the weather.us maps, the RA/SN/IP line goes right up 95. Depth map so hardly perfect, but for fun until we get the better maps. Slightly surprised its not better around DC. Such a close call there for a ton of people. Really seems like we won't be sure how it plays out until we get there. And I feel like I've seen this kind of thing many times before here in CHO... where I'm always gonna assume there's going to be more mixing and rain than what the models say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This storm has heartbreak written all over it for SE region so I gotta resist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is well north of the NAM. Leads me to believe the GGEM will be as well. The ICON is a weenie run for us western folks. Best possible pass for us. Keep talking dirty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The surface low path on the ICON is interesting. Just offshore SC/NC, over the southern Outer Banks, and then it curls back under the 500 low west of Va Beach. Annoying, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Biggest GFS run of the year coming up. Baby steps. We stopped the bleeding, can we creep back toward a winning solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Such a close call there for a ton of people. Really seems like we won't be sure how it plays out until we get there. And I feel like I've seen this kind of thing many times before here in CHO... where I'm always gonna assume there's going to be more mixing and rain than what the models say. From my limited years down there, that does appear to be true. I guess on the positive side for winter wx, I'd expect the CAD to hold on a bit longer. Could be pretty icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 39 minutes ago, Scraff said: The end goal here is: Boss level 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It is frustrating really. It's just a little hallway of weakness to the north/nw on approach. But since it creates that hallway, it doesn't matter much how good looks or where it's located as it turns northward. The whole trip north the upper and surface lows are gunning for that hallway Incredibly. I don't think I've been this annoyed in a while. I liked your "banana bruise' analogy. It's perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: From my limited years down there, that does appear to be true. I guess on the positive side for winter wx, I'd expect the CAD to hold on a bit longer. Could be pretty icy. Given what happened with all the trees around these parts with the last storm... I could do without ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Biggest GFS run of the year coming up. Baby steps. We stopped the bleeding, can we creep back toward a winning solution? the good part is snow is almost a lock of some amount for us..that amount is in question but flakes will fly for a bit...not too shabby considering I had the AC on at Xmas and NYE...both of which were warmer than memorial day in 2021...we've come a long way my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: Incredibly. I don't think I've been this annoyed in a while. I liked your "banana bruise' analogy. It's perfect. Y’all need to stop talking bananas. You know who is gonna get drawn in lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The surface low path on the ICON is interesting. Just offshore SC/NC, over the southern Outer Banks, and then it curls back under the 500 low west of Va Beach. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: From my limited years down there, that does appear to be true. I guess on the positive side for winter wx, I'd expect the CAD to hold on a bit longer. Could be pretty icy. More importantly, because of climo and topography, that area is simply further S and often in the crosshairs of the WAA of a developing cyclone. Circulation hasn't destroyed the column nearly as much during onset/heavies as it will when the storm reaches DC latitude. Thumps to rain for DC often have SWVA jack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 WB 12Z ICON, not Kuchera so probably underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 To quote @clskinsfan, the ICON is a beatdown for 81/west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: the good part is snow is almost a lock of some amount for us..that amount is in question but flakes will fly for a bit...not too shabby considering I had the AC on at Xmas and NYE...both of which were warmer than memorial day in 2021...we've come a long way my friend I had a foot and then 2-3 inches from the last two storms. After a week of mid 50s over Christmas in Canaan. 6 weeks of deep winter and ripping fatties is all I ever wanted lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, LP08 said: If we could get that to vertically stack and occlude even 30 miles east, DC and Baltimore do much better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Thank you so much for that GIF super helpful in understanding why the track looks like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS out to 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS looks very similar to NAM at 27 & 42 minus the H in the PNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: GFS out to 30 Keep us posted 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: GFS out to 30 The time now is 10:49am 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: Keep us posted what mattieg said was spot on for us just west of 95...get that ICON look 30miles east and it would be a lot more fun for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Heights over Kansas look to be 1 mb lower. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The time now is 10:49am Already outdated information, appears to be 10:52am for me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS seems farther east and slight north at 54 compared to NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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