Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: No expert but is the NAM further south or just moving more slowly then GFS? Yea GFS has been the one hauling a** the entire time. Kinda out there on its own in that regard from everything else I’ve seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, IronTy said: The end goal here is: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: No expert but is the NAM further south or just moving more slowly then GFS? It is further south but still gaining latitude quickly as it moves east with the NS shortwave digging south. Difficult to say if it would end up much different for our region. Go ahead and extrapolate lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 i thought a delayed storm would take less advantage of whatever cold is left but NAM is still 24 degrees Sunday night with snow approaching https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2022011312&fh=84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 46 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You'd be surprised what RR is into. I was taught by the best. Thank you@stormtracker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: It is further south but still gaining latitude quickly as it moves east with the NS shortwave digging south. Difficult to say if it would end up much different for our region. Go ahead and extrapolate lol. yea i do wonder about some of the west or east trends mentioned when that could easily be due to slower or faster. probably why it's best to wait until the run is over to draw conclusions, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It would be nice to see the NAM trend east with the H5 low, not just south. It also looks to be about 6hrs slower than the GFS. If you overlay them taking the delay into account, the NAM is further south but they are similar. The NAM looks to have a hellacious phase thereafter and the trof axis is still too far west. This run was "better" but the improvements were exaggerated IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to understand and taking any extrapolation of the NAM with a lot of salt… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, 87storms said: yea i do wonder about some of the west or east trends mentioned when that could easily be due to slower or faster. probably why it's best to wait until the run is over to draw conclusions, too. That is what I was wondering. I see slower, certainly. I don't see yet that it will result in E-SE though for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: My intuition is farther south = less northern stream interaction = slower. The pull from the northern stream shortwave is what speeds it up once it gets captured and starts moving N/NW. This is where what Bob said about how it goes once it rounds the base will not be known for a while. Change that NS tug and placement and it changes the track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, 87storms said: Jan 2000 went pretty severely negative (it basically got scooped up by the trailing vort) but also pretty uncommon. Thats what some guidance was showing as the Midwest sw dives into the trof to energize the system. But will that energy do a Jan 25, 2000 like you and guidance alluded to? Or will it dive in an energize the developing system? Or will it act more as a kicker to nudge it east? Maybe even a blend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Really not sure the purpose of a Tweet like this, it’s not even clickbaitey like we see from others (“here’s an ensemble member showing two feet!”) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Only 30 more minutes until people stop the NAM talk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I know everyone is in Weenie mode but when has anyone ever taken the NAM at 84 seriously. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 84hr 12z NAM vs 82 hr 6z GFS have similar positioning. But the NAM looks sharper and poised for a more aggressive phase. I could see the NAM sending the SLP further west than the GFS with that look, and possibly an earlier occlusion. In any case, I didn't see a distinctly positive change. Everything has been mixed lately, with positives offset by negatives. We want something like the GFS speed with the NAM initial lower latitude. Gotta get that trof axis further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, ryanconway63 said: I know everyone is in Weenie mode but when has anyone ever taken the NAM at 84 seriously. lol We only take it seriously if it shows snow or good trends. It also fills the void until the Varsity models come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 41 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I know we've seen it on every model, but it still boggles my mind that this thing is going from an extreme positive tilt to a negative one in such a short distance. Let's be honest...it's annoying as hell. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Since we are looking at 84 hour NAM here is WB 9Z SREF Mean at hour 87 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathercoins said: Really not sure the purpose of a Tweet like this, it’s not even clickbaitey like we see from others (“here’s an ensemble member showing two feet!”) Looks like a pretty solid map for now - and she's clear that it's early and things could change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, H2O said: This is where what Bob said about how it goes once it rounds the base will not be known for a while. Change that NS tug and placement and it changes the track A really good way to use the 12k nam is to just compare h5 anomaly vort panels at hr48. If it looks a little better, the nam's primary usefulness in the mid range is over with how I look at this game. NAM is way too prone to do NAM things beyond hr48 IME but changes thru 48 are important for sure 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, weathercoins said: Really not sure the purpose of a Tweet like this, it’s not even clickbaitey like we see from others (“here’s an ensemble member showing two feet!”) I don't see an issue with it. It doesn't hype and starts to give the public an idea of what might be coming so they can prepare. It also says quite clearly things can change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Since we are looking at 84 hour NAM here is WB 9Z SREF Mean at hour 87 Miller A look...rides the eastern portion of the Gulf Coast, cross N Fl and re-emerge just off Savannah. We have all been praying for a Miller A for a while, maybe this will develop into the one. There has been luck recently and the WDI is off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Side note, if you like tracking JV models, the RGEM is running now and is out to hour 48 on pivotal (free): https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022011312&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype&m=rdps (it's called RDPS on there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 sorry for being ignorant to this but if the system happens to be slower as the NAM is depicting - would this reduce the level of N/NW movement and allow it to run on a more ENE trajectory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 37 minutes ago, mob1 said: Southern vort is MUCH further southeast Also I would think if it slows down anymore the vort coming in from Canada kicks it east.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 34 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: This looks fabulous. Let's hope globals follow. GFS is headed towards this Along with a lot of what has been said, I'm looking at the confluence and the heights around the Great Lakes. Lower heights and more confluence is a good thing to help keep this thing a little more east, but I can't get rid of this nagging feeling that all guidance will pull this thing over or west of DC regardless of the look leading in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z ICON sends the H5 vort from the central NC/VA border, through richmond, over the bay and over the delmarva. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z ICON sends the H5 vort from the central NC/VA border, through richmond, over the bay and over the delmarva. per the weather.us maps, the RA/SN/IP line goes right up 95. Depth map so hardly perfect, but for fun until we get the better maps. Slightly surprised its not better around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z ICON sends the H5 vort from the central NC/VA border, through richmond, over the bay and over the delmarva. yes it does. looks pretty good to this weenie...all snow is good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: per the weather.us maps, the RA/SN/IP line goes right up 95. Depth map so hardly perfect, but for fun until we get the better maps: I'll take a foot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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