Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Only 30 more minutes until people stop the NAM talk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I know everyone is in Weenie mode but when has anyone ever taken the NAM at 84 seriously. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 84hr 12z NAM vs 82 hr 6z GFS have similar positioning. But the NAM looks sharper and poised for a more aggressive phase. I could see the NAM sending the SLP further west than the GFS with that look, and possibly an earlier occlusion. In any case, I didn't see a distinctly positive change. Everything has been mixed lately, with positives offset by negatives. We want something like the GFS speed with the NAM initial lower latitude. Gotta get that trof axis further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, ryanconway63 said: I know everyone is in Weenie mode but when has anyone ever taken the NAM at 84 seriously. lol We only take it seriously if it shows snow or good trends. It also fills the void until the Varsity models come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 41 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I know we've seen it on every model, but it still boggles my mind that this thing is going from an extreme positive tilt to a negative one in such a short distance. Let's be honest...it's annoying as hell. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Since we are looking at 84 hour NAM here is WB 9Z SREF Mean at hour 87 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathercoins said: Really not sure the purpose of a Tweet like this, it’s not even clickbaitey like we see from others (“here’s an ensemble member showing two feet!”) Looks like a pretty solid map for now - and she's clear that it's early and things could change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, H2O said: This is where what Bob said about how it goes once it rounds the base will not be known for a while. Change that NS tug and placement and it changes the track A really good way to use the 12k nam is to just compare h5 anomaly vort panels at hr48. If it looks a little better, the nam's primary usefulness in the mid range is over with how I look at this game. NAM is way too prone to do NAM things beyond hr48 IME but changes thru 48 are important for sure 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, weathercoins said: Really not sure the purpose of a Tweet like this, it’s not even clickbaitey like we see from others (“here’s an ensemble member showing two feet!”) I don't see an issue with it. It doesn't hype and starts to give the public an idea of what might be coming so they can prepare. It also says quite clearly things can change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Since we are looking at 84 hour NAM here is WB 9Z SREF Mean at hour 87 Miller A look...rides the eastern portion of the Gulf Coast, cross N Fl and re-emerge just off Savannah. We have all been praying for a Miller A for a while, maybe this will develop into the one. There has been luck recently and the WDI is off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Side note, if you like tracking JV models, the RGEM is running now and is out to hour 48 on pivotal (free): https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022011312&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=prateptype&m=rdps (it's called RDPS on there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 sorry for being ignorant to this but if the system happens to be slower as the NAM is depicting - would this reduce the level of N/NW movement and allow it to run on a more ENE trajectory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 37 minutes ago, mob1 said: Southern vort is MUCH further southeast Also I would think if it slows down anymore the vort coming in from Canada kicks it east.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 34 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: This looks fabulous. Let's hope globals follow. GFS is headed towards this Along with a lot of what has been said, I'm looking at the confluence and the heights around the Great Lakes. Lower heights and more confluence is a good thing to help keep this thing a little more east, but I can't get rid of this nagging feeling that all guidance will pull this thing over or west of DC regardless of the look leading in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z ICON sends the H5 vort from the central NC/VA border, through richmond, over the bay and over the delmarva. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z ICON sends the H5 vort from the central NC/VA border, through richmond, over the bay and over the delmarva. per the weather.us maps, the RA/SN/IP line goes right up 95. Depth map so hardly perfect, but for fun until we get the better maps. Slightly surprised its not better around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z ICON sends the H5 vort from the central NC/VA border, through richmond, over the bay and over the delmarva. yes it does. looks pretty good to this weenie...all snow is good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: per the weather.us maps, the RA/SN/IP line goes right up 95. Depth map so hardly perfect, but for fun until we get the better maps: I'll take a foot lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: per the weather.us maps, the RA/SN/IP line goes right up 95. Depth map so hardly perfect, but for fun until we get the better maps. Slightly surprised its not better around DC. Actually, the culprit is fairly clear -- DC and close burbs get dryslotted hard for 6 hours in the peak of the storm. edit: that said, ICON isn't gonna nail anything like that from this range. the low track is better, all that should be noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The surface low path on the ICON is interesting. Just offshore SC/NC, over the southern Outer Banks, and then it curls back under the 500 low west of Va Beach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 RGEM is well north of the NAM. Leads me to believe the GGEM will be as well. The ICON is a weenie run for us western folks. Best possible pass for us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: Along with a lot of what has been said, I'm looking at the confluence and the heights around the Great Lakes. Lower heights and more confluence is a good thing to help keep this thing a little more east, but I can't get rid of this nagging feeling that all guidance will pull this thing over or west of DC regardless of the look leading in. It is frustrating really. It's just a little hallway of weakness to the north/nw on approach. But since it creates that hallway, it doesn't matter much how good looks or where it's located as it turns northward. The whole trip north the upper and surface lows are gunning for that hallway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: per the weather.us maps, the RA/SN/IP line goes right up 95. Depth map so hardly perfect, but for fun until we get the better maps. Slightly surprised its not better around DC. Such a close call there for a ton of people. Really seems like we won't be sure how it plays out until we get there. And I feel like I've seen this kind of thing many times before here in CHO... where I'm always gonna assume there's going to be more mixing and rain than what the models say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This storm has heartbreak written all over it for SE region so I gotta resist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is well north of the NAM. Leads me to believe the GGEM will be as well. The ICON is a weenie run for us western folks. Best possible pass for us. Keep talking dirty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The surface low path on the ICON is interesting. Just offshore SC/NC, over the southern Outer Banks, and then it curls back under the 500 low west of Va Beach. Annoying, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Biggest GFS run of the year coming up. Baby steps. We stopped the bleeding, can we creep back toward a winning solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Such a close call there for a ton of people. Really seems like we won't be sure how it plays out until we get there. And I feel like I've seen this kind of thing many times before here in CHO... where I'm always gonna assume there's going to be more mixing and rain than what the models say. From my limited years down there, that does appear to be true. I guess on the positive side for winter wx, I'd expect the CAD to hold on a bit longer. Could be pretty icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 39 minutes ago, Scraff said: The end goal here is: Boss level 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It is frustrating really. It's just a little hallway of weakness to the north/nw on approach. But since it creates that hallway, it doesn't matter much how good looks or where it's located as it turns northward. The whole trip north the upper and surface lows are gunning for that hallway Incredibly. I don't think I've been this annoyed in a while. I liked your "banana bruise' analogy. It's perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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