jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like it has wiggle room to bump east some more on future runs given the weakness and lean to the east of the slp mean center That 977 low well offshore would be SWEET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 So far this solution makes the most sense I’ve seen given the high pressure moving in prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 We’re about to get NAM’d aren’t we 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, 87storms said: So far this solution makes the most sense I’ve seen given the high pressure moving in prior. If it’s the coldest and snowiest, then of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @psuhoffman would highly approve of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, jayyy said: We’re about to get NAM’d aren’t we If it kept going yeah likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Jan 2000 went pretty severely negative (it basically got scooped up by the trailing vort) but also pretty uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Good changes on the 12z NAM and it should have the storm in the RAOB network. At the worst, it's stopped the bleeding. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 All jokes aside. That snip I posted above is what you want to see if you want a monster thump. Everyone in here would get blasted on the front end with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Considerably slower than the globals. Ok enough Nam talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: Im so glad my annoyance over maps with no legends is providing you so much to work with in making memes 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Im so glad my annoyance over maps with no legends is providing you so much to work with in making memes I am merely the artist using the oils and watercolors provided to me. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Snow lovers in Kentucky are hoping the NAM isn't on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 No expert but is the NAM further south or just moving more slowly then GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Yes to both 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 My intuition is farther south = less northern stream interaction = slower. The pull from the northern stream shortwave is what speeds it up once it gets captured and starts moving N/NW. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: No expert but is the NAM further south or just moving more slowly then GFS? Yea GFS has been the one hauling a** the entire time. Kinda out there on its own in that regard from everything else I’ve seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, IronTy said: The end goal here is: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: No expert but is the NAM further south or just moving more slowly then GFS? It is further south but still gaining latitude quickly as it moves east with the NS shortwave digging south. Difficult to say if it would end up much different for our region. Go ahead and extrapolate lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 i thought a delayed storm would take less advantage of whatever cold is left but NAM is still 24 degrees Sunday night with snow approaching https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2022011312&fh=84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 46 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You'd be surprised what RR is into. I was taught by the best. Thank you@stormtracker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: It is further south but still gaining latitude quickly as it moves east with the NS shortwave digging south. Difficult to say if it would end up much different for our region. Go ahead and extrapolate lol. yea i do wonder about some of the west or east trends mentioned when that could easily be due to slower or faster. probably why it's best to wait until the run is over to draw conclusions, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It would be nice to see the NAM trend east with the H5 low, not just south. It also looks to be about 6hrs slower than the GFS. If you overlay them taking the delay into account, the NAM is further south but they are similar. The NAM looks to have a hellacious phase thereafter and the trof axis is still too far west. This run was "better" but the improvements were exaggerated IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to understand and taking any extrapolation of the NAM with a lot of salt… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, 87storms said: yea i do wonder about some of the west or east trends mentioned when that could easily be due to slower or faster. probably why it's best to wait until the run is over to draw conclusions, too. That is what I was wondering. I see slower, certainly. I don't see yet that it will result in E-SE though for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: My intuition is farther south = less northern stream interaction = slower. The pull from the northern stream shortwave is what speeds it up once it gets captured and starts moving N/NW. This is where what Bob said about how it goes once it rounds the base will not be known for a while. Change that NS tug and placement and it changes the track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, 87storms said: Jan 2000 went pretty severely negative (it basically got scooped up by the trailing vort) but also pretty uncommon. Thats what some guidance was showing as the Midwest sw dives into the trof to energize the system. But will that energy do a Jan 25, 2000 like you and guidance alluded to? Or will it dive in an energize the developing system? Or will it act more as a kicker to nudge it east? Maybe even a blend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Really not sure the purpose of a Tweet like this, it’s not even clickbaitey like we see from others (“here’s an ensemble member showing two feet!”) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts