Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: I personally have this suspicion the 12z runs will be better for everyone. Looking at the ensembles and all the model data I just find it very hard to believe the cold air will erode that easy. Check out the winds at 850 mb...screaming from the SE. That will erode cold air no problem. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Check out the winds at 850 mb...screaming from the SE. That will erode cold air no problem. Another 50-75 miles and I don't think that will be a big issue 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Do the GEFS get the additional recon flight data like the GFS has been receiving? GEFS is initialized from the GFS analysis. The control for the GEFS is initialized directly from the analysis (interpolated to lower resolution). The members are then perturbed through combinations of perturbations derived from the previous GDAS cycle's short term forecast perturbations....all centered about the same control GFS analysis. So yes, recon data would impact GEFS through the GFS analysis. 4 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Another 50-75 miles and I don't think that will be a big issue Get the 500 low centered over the NC lowlands and we're golden. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: I personally have this suspicion the 12z runs will be better for everyone. Looking at the ensembles and all the model data I just find it very hard to believe the cold air will erode that easy. Personally I'd take the storm being west to allow for a shift east coming into gametime I agree with the part about the cold air. It never leaves as fas as advertised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There is an advantage with mixed events like this. Front side comes in hot, piles up quick, looks amazing, and as soon as sand starts hitting the windows its time to drop the subject completely and move on to something else more productive and interesting. Like kicking bunnies or something like that. 3 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Something Im sure we have all noticed on the Major models is the Low in a pretty good place in North Carolina.....then as the storm pushes north it actually pulls almost due northwest for a period of 6-12 hours.....Cant say I remember that happening ever in the past winter storms over the years. What is causing this to happen and is that a viable solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Check out the winds at 850 mb...screaming from the SE. That will erode cold air no problem. Near surface could stay cold, but it would briefly torch in the 925-850mb range. That could actually limit the surface wind risk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just a heads up for everyone in here; I am going to be busier than a one armed coat hanger today at work so I will not have any time to look at a single model run for the 12z suite until perhaps very late in the afternoon. Might be more likely after I get off work. Too much going on. Storm wise: My thoughts have not changed on expected impacts. There will be a strong nose of warm air nestled between 850-700mb as the LLJ on the eastern side of the cyclone will be robust, approaching 2-3 StDev above normal for climo, which is impressive to say the least. I mentioned this before but the u-vector component with the wind is going to be off the charts. This is both good and bad. The good is the advection of moisture is going to be stout to the point that people are continuingly underestimating what kind of front end thump we are looking at. The 850-700mb frontogen pattern expected is bananas. 1-2"/hr snowfall rates will be COMMON with this storm on the front end. Add in the orographic ascent typical for the area and things will come in like a wall of white. WAA snows wait for no man. Despite the drier antecedent airmass in place, things will moisten up rapidly. I wouldn't even worry about that part. The bad part of the stronger u-vector component will be the mix line racing in tandem with the precip field. Things will changeover likely a little faster than what you would want, but I do feel the globals are overestimating the scouring of the SURFACE cold a bit too much. Piedmont areas, especially anywhere above 500' AGL may struggle to warm much above freezing with freezing conditions remaining out near I-81, west of the BR. This is textbook for a storm like this. What to look for: When does the storm stack? Is there an adjustment on the strength and longitudinal shift of the mean trough/ULL that develops over the Deep South? Where is the SLP located when the turn north occurs? Are there any significant trends with regards to thermals as the system arrives? What is the DEPTH of the warm nose being advected into the region? Is there a change in the speed of the N/S vort that is supposed to phase into the disturbance? These are the questions to make a checklist for. Today should shed more light on the prospects, but I feel the NAM Nest range is when things will have a better indication on the finer details, so don't worry about banding prospects until we get closer to game time. That's all I have for now. Enjoy the tracking today y'all! Hopefully there's a little bit of a SE trend to get more love to the sub 11 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, dtk said: GEFS is initialized from the GFS analysis. The control for the GEFS is initialized directly from the analysis (interpolated to lower resolution). The members are then perturbed through combinations of perturbations derived from the previous GDAS cycle's short term forecast perturbations....all centered about the same control GFS analysis. So yes, recon data would impact GEFS through the GFS analysis. My head hurts after reading this. But thanks. Always like learning from you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Check out the winds at 850 mb...screaming from the SE. That will erode cold air no problem. But that’s at the 850 mb level which you obviously know is above the low level cold. It still takes time. Can it change from snow fast. Absolutely. But to get that surface above freezing will take some doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There is an advantage with mixed events like this. Front side comes in hot, piles up quick, looks amazing, and as soon as sand starts hitting the windows its time to drop the subject completely and move on to something else more productive and interesting. Like kicking bunnies or something like that. This. I hate sleet. With a passion. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, mappy said: This. I hate sleet. With a passion. Give me 4 to 6 inches of sleet on snow and we're gonna keep a snowpack for awhile. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If the track doesn't change much, a thump and a dry slot would be a nice outcome. I can't believe given the way this winter looked that I've had 2" and 5" snows already, and have another to track! Glad it's Sunday - we fly back from Puerto Rico to BWI on Saturday. Oh BTW sunny and 84 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Give me 4 to 6 inches of sleet on snow and we're gonna keep a snowpack for awhile. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But that’s at the 850 mb level which you obviously know is above the low level cold. It still takes time. Can it change from snow fast. Absolutely. But to get that surface above freezing will take some doing. Rules of thumb with insitu-CAD setups with bad tracks are surface is stubborn but mids fold like WFT QB's 3 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: If the track doesn't change much, a thump and a dry slot would be a nice outcome. I can't believe given the way this winter looked that I've had 2" and 5" snows already, and have another to track! Glad it's Sunday - we fly back from Puerto Rico to BWI on Saturday. Oh BTW sunny and 84 today 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I don’t usually like sleet but I had a lot of fun with it in Feb 07. It was so glossed up that you could just glide on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I can't speak for everybody but I can 100% guaranty there isn't a single bunny or any other rodent or stray pet in my yard after snow flips to something else. You guys may think I'm odd or crazy but you haven't lived until you go on a rodent ass kicking contest in the slush, mud, and rain. Liberating. Eta: just so I don't get doxxed by PETA and harassed the rest of my life... I don't kick hard at all. I'm not playing to kill or even to hurt really. Just a "friendly nudge" to get those beady eye'd mofos off my yard so they can stop staring in my windows laughing at my pain. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Matters to me. It's embarrassing to be beaten by DC Fired. Turn in your moderator badge by the end of the day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Uh-oh, now I know we're in trouble. @Bob Chill's talking about kicking bunnies! Next, @stormtracker will come in with kicking cute puppies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I agree with the part about the cold air. It never leaves as fas as advertised. For lower levels, sure, but switching over to sleet due to a warm nose seems to surprise us way more than we hope! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I’m surprised they brought the impact all the way down to the minimum for the I95 corridor. I know to an extent it’s relative and they only have three levels of impact, each of which is taken by areas deserving of the higher impact warnings, but idk, if a warning level snowfall and some sleet too is still on the table for the corridor then that seems like an odd choice. edit: I guess if impacts are mostly happening Sunday evening it makes more sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, mappy said: This. I hate sleet. With a passion. I'll take sleet over....wait for it.....r _ _ n. At least sleet coats my snow and protects it. Rain is like pissing on a slurpee. And nobody wants that. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, H2O said: I'll take sleet over....wait for it.....r _ _ n. At least sleet coats my snow and protects it. Rain is like pissing on a slurpee. And nobody wants that. You'd be surprised what RR is into. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I can't speak for everybody but I can 100% guaranty there isn't a single bunny or any other rodent or stray pet in my yard after snow flips to something else. You guys may think I'm odd or crazy but you haven't lived until you go on a rodent ass kicking contest in the slush, mud, and rain. Liberating. "kids, walk by that house fast. Thats where that guy who Tres Way's squirrels into our yard lives. He does that every time it rains in winter." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: I'll take sleet over....wait for it.....r _ _ n. At least sleet coats my snow and protects it. Rain is like pissing on a slurpee. And nobody wants that. nope. Id rather have rain. All those snowflakes, falling so nicely only to melt and refreeze into a stupid ice crystal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Subtle changes but two things I see to watch today. Using the Nam cause its running. Ocean storm intensity (notice the change in strength from 6z to 12z and as it pushes northeast). Pushing the PV lobe west some, causing heights to drop in the east. This allows our storm to gain longitude as it moves. Second piece not in range but talked about a bunch. NS SW that eventually phases with our storm. Delay it and the storm gets further east before turning north (delays the trough turning negative). Speed it up and congrats Pittsburgh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, mappy said: This. I hate sleet. With a passion. Not to mention how much more difficult it makes shoveling...It's like shoveling purr cement and ya never get all of it, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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