winterymix Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Say whut? The 500 mb low slows down and deepens near Charlottesville. If it slows enough the front end snow could be a quick heavy 3 to 6 followed by 12 hours of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: The unshakable west track as of now is bad for coastal plain. Low level CAD might stick around longer west of the bay but agree that that column will roast quickly and a lot of that “snow” on those maps will be sleet/ice. This has gone from decent front end to it will do frozen for a little bit What I said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, winterymix said: The 500 mb low slows down and deepens near Charlottesville. If it slows enough the front end snow could be a quick heavy 3 to 6 followed by 12 hours of rain. As modeled it’s not gonna go to plain rain everywhere. That could change, but for now I don’t think you are correct. At all 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, winterymix said: The 500 mb low slows down and deepens near Charlottesville. If it slows enough the front end snow could be a quick heavy 3 to 6 followed by 12 hours of rain. Making absolutes about the entire sub-forum going to rain doesn’t jive with guidance or events with similar 500/surface tracks. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 34 minutes ago, nj2va said: 6z Euro (runs to 90) appears slightly faster than 00z and also I’d say it (probably) stopped a further westward shift from 00z as it looks a touch S/E of 00z. A wall of snow incoming with CHO getting SN++. *insert M Bison “Yes YES!” gif here* 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Most important runs in model tracking history today since yesterday. But seriously it’s time for a se trend, or at least a hold. Seems like we need either a less amped and a slower to close off low for an east shift, stronger high/cad to prolong the thump, or a little better west based blocking over the North Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, H2O said: The unshakable west track as of now is bad for coastal plain. Low level CAD might stick around longer west of the bay but agree that that column will roast quickly and a lot of that “snow” on those maps will be sleet/ice. This has gone from decent front end to it will do frozen for a little bit Locations just west/SW of DC are still in a decent spot to get in on the heavier front end precip. Not sure about ice- looks like it would be a quick flip to rain after snow and maybe a brief period of sleet. The LL cold should be scoured out pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 WB EPS Hr. 90 6z v 0z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks east of 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nah, I havent even had coffee yet. Kids are off on a school ski club trip. Distractions are lessened. But ty for noticing. The GFS op took that track (right over or just east of.phl) that you and I both laid out last night on where we thought the surface weaknesses should have been tracking this yesterday, so the nudge finally appeared. Interesting. I'm here for you Ralph and I hope it works out for you. We can't control the weather but we can pop some hopium pills together. -RSC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks like EPS is either about the same or very marginally east, but wider spread. Certainly got back some members taking the coast track. But overall still too far inland on the mean to be comforting. edit: later frames look more like taking the path over Philly rather than Harrisburg on the mean which is nicer, so that’s good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 EPS 500 track shifted east from 00z. 00z mean had the 500 low track over NW VA and 06z has it tracking through central VA to just east of DC. I haven’t looked into the individual members but the takeaway for me is the 6z Euro and EPS seems to have stopped the westward push for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 WB 6Z v 0Z tick east in snow mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This will bring the weenies back in for the 12z 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 My thought is the bleeding to the west has at least temporarily stopped. Now we see if we start moving a little eastward, like the last big storm or is it locking in… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: EPS 500 track shifted east from 00z. 00z mean had the 500 low track over NW VA and 06z has it tracking through central VA to just east of DC. I haven’t looked into the individual members but the takeaway for me is the 6z Euro and EPS seems to have stopped the westward push for now. Thats my takeaway as well. The H5 track noticeably east from the time it rounds the corner down south. Hopefully these slight adjustments east continue today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The westward trend has stopped. If anything, we’ve seen a slight improvement at 500mb and a resulting tick east. Of course, a low running over the bay and to PHL still isn’t great, but it’s better than a low tracking over Hagerstown to Harrisburg. We need to see 12z and 0z tonight take a meaningful step east to keep the hope alive for a mainly snow event along the 95 corridor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Thats my takeaway as well. The H5 track noticeably east from the time it rounds the corner down south. Hopefully these slight adjustments east continue today. Agreed. Don’t think it’s a coincidence that models are beginning to shift east a bit at 500mb / H5 as upper air features begin to make their way onto the CONUS for better sampling. We need to see 12z take a meaningful step in our direction so that we can say this the start of a trend, and not just fine tuning a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The storm’s issue isn’t until it reaches the Carolinas. Until then it’s perfect. PERFECT. It’s afterwards. And that has everything to do with the ns sw. When that issue is settled, we will know. Until then I don’t see how anybody can be definitive in what’s gonna happen. People have also commented on the feature in the ne and hoping it hangs around. I wonder if that is misguided also. What is happening IMO, is this is getting tugged nw from the nw and now you’ve got this stone in the river to the ne that in my view is shunting the storm even further nw. If the storm is gonna ride the coast it needs an avenue in which to do so. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 06z EPS mean snowfall would bring DCA to near full climo for yearly snowfall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Looks east of 0z Looks like it has wiggle room to bump east some more on future runs given the weakness and lean to the east of the slp mean center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The storm’s issue isn’t until I reaches the Carolinas. Until then it’s perfect. PERFECT. It’s afterwards. And that has everything to do with the ns sw. When that issue is settled, we will know. Until then I don’t see how anybody can be definitive in what’s gonna happen. People have also commented on the feature in the ne and hoping it hangs around. I wonder if that is misguided also. What is happening IMO, is this is getting tugged nw from the nw and now you’ve got this stone in the river to the ne that in my view is shunting the storm even further nw. If the storm is gonna ride the coast it needs an avenue in which to do so. This is why I really don't look beyond storm/no storm outside of 72 hours unless it's locked an loaded. Rounding the base has always looked "ok" but there is a flaw (bruise in the banana high in a bad spot) that isn't going anywhere. Path of least resistance (for now) is overhead and while it's uncommon, the progression makes complete sense. Not much chance for the banana high bruise to go away so now it comes down to where exactly that weakness pulls the low center. IMHO, we're prob at least a full 24 hours away from having a good handle on that piece. All this said, I absolutely do not expect a clean snowstorm anywhere near my house no matter what. But it can still be a pretty solid event even in the cities. . 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 06z EPS mean snowfall would bring DCA to near full climo for yearly snowfall. DCA measuring issues aside, if we get an inland runner as advertised, this is a situation where DC could quite possibly do better than places to the northeast (me, Baltimore, maybe even @mappy) because they're farther west and also closer to the strongest WWA thump snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: IMHO, we're prob at least a full 24 hours away from having a good handle on that piece. 100% 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 33 minutes ago, CAPE said: Locations just west/SW of DC are still in a decent spot to get in on the heavier front end precip. Not sure about ice- looks like it would be a quick flip to rain after snow and maybe a brief period of sleet. The LL cold should be scoured out pretty quickly. Great point. I was just thinking this as well. I am just southwest of Richmond and was applying this same logic down this way with the WAA thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: DCA measuring issues aside, if we get an inland runner as advertised, this is a situation where DC could quite possibly do better than places to the northeast (me, Baltimore, maybe even @mappy) because they're farther west and also closer to the strongest WWA thump snow. DC Winter! Doesn't matter to me, snow is snow. Just have snow fall. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I personally have this suspicion the 12z runs will be better for everyone. Looking at the ensembles and all the model data I just find it very hard to believe the cold air will erode that easy. Personally I'd take the storm being west to allow for a shift east coming into gametime 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: DC Winter! Doesn't matter to me, snow is snow. Just have snow fall. lol Matters to me. It's embarrassing to be beaten by DC 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Matters to me. It's embarrassing to be beaten by DC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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