mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 06Z Euro looks a bit better, has snow at hour 90 for SC and everything looks a touch east. It's hard to extrapolate from there as many models look good at that point and then take a sharp turn N or NW. We'll see what the EPS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6z Euro (runs to 90) appears slightly faster than 00z and also I’d say it (probably) stopped a further westward shift from 00z as it looks a touch S/E of 00z. A wall of snow incoming with CHO getting SN++. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I mean, I hope not because 6z GEFS mean is perfect for us, but it’s pretty clear they’re missing something for this storm relative to all other higher resolution guidance that also has updated physics. Do the GEFS get the additional recon flight data like the GFS has been receiving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 At H5, it's closed over the western Carolinas vs northern GA in its last run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mob1 said: At H5, it's closed over the western Carolinas vs northern GA in its last run. The further east closed H5 low is good to see - like you said, hard to extrapolate from there but I’d wager the track would have been east of 00z if the run went on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Operational GFS is typical of warm-wet pattern. Front end 3-6hrs snow and then the system rides the Bay with everybody-to rain for all of the sub-forum. "The Sync" isn't working for mid-lantic 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I never stop worrying about that Stop worrying lol. This is shaping up to be a nice WAA driven front end thump for out there. You root for those because they work there. For eastern areas in these set ups the heavy precip on the front end is almost always too far west, and the screaming LL southerly jet kills the column pretty quickly. I'll take a sloppy inch to pad the solid start from last week, but a lot would have to change for me to have more than a casual interest at this point. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Do the GEFS get the additional recon flight data like the GFS has been receiving? Sure, all guidance will use it I expect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, winterymix said: Operational GFS is typical of warm-wet pattern. Front end 3-6hrs snow and then the system rides the Bay with everybody-to rain for all of the sub-forum. "The Sync" isn't working for mid-lantic Say whut? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 42 minutes ago, mappy said: Going to need you to tell me its going to snow. when you're ready I’d be very surprised if we didn’t get some snow. It’s not a lock yet but maybe a 90% probability of at least 1” imo. What we’re figuring out now is it some snow washed away by rain or a storm where we have a nice snowpack when it’s over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I still don’t think we will accurately know how that ns feature is gonna play out until tomorrow’s night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Stop worrying lol. This is shaping up to be a nice WAA driven front end thump for out there. You root for those because they work there. For eastern areas in these set ups the heavy precip on the front end is almost always too far west, and the screaming LL southerly jet kills the column pretty quickly. I'll take a sloppy inch to pad the solid start from last week, but a lot would have to change for me to have more than a casual interest at this point. The unshakable west track as of now is bad for coastal plain. Low level CAD might stick around longer west of the bay but agree that that column will roast quickly and a lot of that “snow” on those maps will be sleet/ice. This has gone from decent front end to it will do frozen for a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Say whut? The 500 mb low slows down and deepens near Charlottesville. If it slows enough the front end snow could be a quick heavy 3 to 6 followed by 12 hours of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: The unshakable west track as of now is bad for coastal plain. Low level CAD might stick around longer west of the bay but agree that that column will roast quickly and a lot of that “snow” on those maps will be sleet/ice. This has gone from decent front end to it will do frozen for a little bit What I said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, winterymix said: The 500 mb low slows down and deepens near Charlottesville. If it slows enough the front end snow could be a quick heavy 3 to 6 followed by 12 hours of rain. As modeled it’s not gonna go to plain rain everywhere. That could change, but for now I don’t think you are correct. At all 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, winterymix said: The 500 mb low slows down and deepens near Charlottesville. If it slows enough the front end snow could be a quick heavy 3 to 6 followed by 12 hours of rain. Making absolutes about the entire sub-forum going to rain doesn’t jive with guidance or events with similar 500/surface tracks. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 34 minutes ago, nj2va said: 6z Euro (runs to 90) appears slightly faster than 00z and also I’d say it (probably) stopped a further westward shift from 00z as it looks a touch S/E of 00z. A wall of snow incoming with CHO getting SN++. *insert M Bison “Yes YES!” gif here* 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Most important runs in model tracking history today since yesterday. But seriously it’s time for a se trend, or at least a hold. Seems like we need either a less amped and a slower to close off low for an east shift, stronger high/cad to prolong the thump, or a little better west based blocking over the North Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, H2O said: The unshakable west track as of now is bad for coastal plain. Low level CAD might stick around longer west of the bay but agree that that column will roast quickly and a lot of that “snow” on those maps will be sleet/ice. This has gone from decent front end to it will do frozen for a little bit Locations just west/SW of DC are still in a decent spot to get in on the heavier front end precip. Not sure about ice- looks like it would be a quick flip to rain after snow and maybe a brief period of sleet. The LL cold should be scoured out pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 WB EPS Hr. 90 6z v 0z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks east of 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nah, I havent even had coffee yet. Kids are off on a school ski club trip. Distractions are lessened. But ty for noticing. The GFS op took that track (right over or just east of.phl) that you and I both laid out last night on where we thought the surface weaknesses should have been tracking this yesterday, so the nudge finally appeared. Interesting. I'm here for you Ralph and I hope it works out for you. We can't control the weather but we can pop some hopium pills together. -RSC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks like EPS is either about the same or very marginally east, but wider spread. Certainly got back some members taking the coast track. But overall still too far inland on the mean to be comforting. edit: later frames look more like taking the path over Philly rather than Harrisburg on the mean which is nicer, so that’s good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 EPS 500 track shifted east from 00z. 00z mean had the 500 low track over NW VA and 06z has it tracking through central VA to just east of DC. I haven’t looked into the individual members but the takeaway for me is the 6z Euro and EPS seems to have stopped the westward push for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 WB 6Z v 0Z tick east in snow mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This will bring the weenies back in for the 12z 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 My thought is the bleeding to the west has at least temporarily stopped. Now we see if we start moving a little eastward, like the last big storm or is it locking in… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: EPS 500 track shifted east from 00z. 00z mean had the 500 low track over NW VA and 06z has it tracking through central VA to just east of DC. I haven’t looked into the individual members but the takeaway for me is the 6z Euro and EPS seems to have stopped the westward push for now. Thats my takeaway as well. The H5 track noticeably east from the time it rounds the corner down south. Hopefully these slight adjustments east continue today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The westward trend has stopped. If anything, we’ve seen a slight improvement at 500mb and a resulting tick east. Of course, a low running over the bay and to PHL still isn’t great, but it’s better than a low tracking over Hagerstown to Harrisburg. We need to see 12z and 0z tonight take a meaningful step east to keep the hope alive for a mainly snow event along the 95 corridor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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