MLK 2022 Storm Potential

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

May this be the start of a good model run day for us all

Truth you speak....luck we will need.

[osfan24]

9 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Not sure about  that. Maybe we're suffering from STF, storm thread fatigue. Nothing wrong with the overnight runs. The guidance is moving the storm more south and east which will be good for everyone but we're still 3.5 days from first flakes. LOL

Maybe ensembles are, but the ops are still going west. At some point, the op needs to match or at least trend toward the ensembles or the ensembles are just plain wrong.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Just when you think your out, they pull you back in. Haha 

[Interstate]

11 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Not sure about  that. Maybe we're suffering from STF, storm thread fatigue. Nothing wrong with the overnight runs. The guidance is moving the storm more south and east which will be good for everyone but we're still 3.5 days from first flakes. LOL

I was talking more about the lack of posting. If the track was 100-150 miles east. We would have had 10 pages to go through. 

[Anyweather]

21 minutes ago, mappy said:

wow, only 4 pages to read since i went to bed at 11. oh boy. 

At least there is an encouraging shift east. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

GEFS lost all of the Western members at 6z. The mean slp is perfect. If I didnt see the op continually run this thing thru Harrisburg PA I would think the GEFS was honking a MECS from DC-BOS. This is good......real good:

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS lost all of the Western members at 6z. The mean slp is perfect. If I didnt see the op continually run this thing thru Harrisburg PA I would think the GEFS was honking a MECS from DC-BOS. This is good......real good:

You took your meds today 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You took your meds today 

Nah, I havent even had coffee yet. Kids are off on a school ski club trip. Distractions are lessened. But ty for noticing.

The GFS op took that track (right over or just east of.phl) that you and I both laid out last night on where we thought the surface weaknesses should have been tracking this yesterday, so the nudge finally appeared. Interesting.

[nj2va]

Good discussion by LWX:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A very potent low pressure system will be pushing across the
southeastern U.S. on Sunday morning, with wintry weather ongoing
to our southwest. The surface low will track north and east
from there across our region through Sunday night and into the
northeastern U.S. by Monday morning/afternoon.

Confidence has increased in the path of this system at this
point, with the expectation that the low pretty much bisects the
region tracking west of the I-95 corridor. Virtually all
guidance has come to this solution, with still varying tracks by
a little here and there. The key is, there is a consensus
starting to take shape.

This ultimately translates to a very messy forecast,
particularly along the I-95 corridor. With a strong surface high
to the north, don`t see any way we don`t at least see some
front end snowfall as the system approaches from the southwest.
However, thinking we see a fairly quick transition to wintry mix
then rain along/east of I-95 especially.

For areas west of the I-95 corridor, well it is going to depend
on how far west you are. Sill thinking areas east of the Blue
Ridge will changeover to a wintry mix and even to all rain at
some point. But think we could see more in the way of snowfall
as the cold air holds on longer just along/east of the Blue
Ridge. For areas west of the Blue Ridge out to the
Alleghenies...this is where we will likely see the big winners
in terms of snowfall with this event. Cold air is expected to
remain locked in place as the low tracks east of these areas.

All this being said, have come down a touch for the I-95
corridor in our winter threat matrix, as consensus builds on a
less impactful event there. For areas west, especially west of
the Blue Ridge, prepare for a significant winter storm Sunday
night into Monday. We aren`t quite into the range for any
snowfall amount forecasts just yet, so still a good bit of time
for things to shift one way or the other. In fact, the 12z suite
of guidance this morning will be the first that has a real
sample of the upper-level features at play, as they just moved
on land overnight. So, it is important to keep checking back in
on our forecast as we fine tune it in the days to come. The
ceiling for this event is high for the entire area if this
system were to shift east, so keep that in mind for your
planning purposes. For our latest forecasts, check
weather.gov/lwx/winter.

By Monday morning, the aforementioned low will be departing to
the northeast. This will leave mostly dry and windy conditions
across the region. Expect some lingering light upslope snow
showers along the Allegheny Front, but should taper off by the
afternoon or early evening.

[SnowenOutThere]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS lost all of the Western members at 6z. The mean slp is perfect. If I didnt see the op continually run this thing thru Harrisburg PA I would think the GEFS was honking a MECS from DC-BOS. This is good......real good:

Ok, when does Ji start worrying about suppression.

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, Anyweather said:

At least there is an encouraging shift east. 

i wasn't really worried about it. the GFS isn't handling the low placement well 

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You took your meds today 

Going to need you to tell me its going to snow. when you're ready  

[Eskimo Joe]

06z GEFS were nice. I'd buy in a heartbeat. Distinct east shift.

[Ji]

06z GEFS were nice. I'd buy in a heartbeat. Distinct east shift.

Snow maps yet?

[WxUSAF]

A few things I saw elsewhere that weren’t mentioned in here:

1. There was an aircraft mission with dropesondes off the west coast, so that will help resolve the upper air features. 
 

2. 0z EPS had almost all members take an inland track. Huge difference between the EPS and the 0z and especially 6z GEFS. Given that the GFS is still a western outlier to the GEFS and we know the GEFS uses older/less capable physics, kinda think you have to toss the GEFS. 
 

On a more editorial note, it’s been nice to see the SE move from the GFS, but with the differences seen in the GFS/GEFS, I’m somewhat worried that the Euro/EPS is doing something better than the GFS and it’s still inching westward. Would really like to see the euro move SE today (say by tonight’s 0z runs) to validate the GFS trend.

[WinterWxLuvr]

19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ok, when does Ji start worrying about suppression.

I never stop worrying about that

[Ji]

A few things I saw elsewhere that weren’t mentioned in here:
1. There was an aircraft mission with dropesondes off the west coast, so that will help resolve the upper air features. 
 
2. 0z EPS had almost all members take an inland track. Huge difference between the EPS and the 0z and especially 6z GEFS. Given that the GFS is still a western outlier to the GEFS and we know the GEFS uses older/less capable physics, kinda think you have to toss the GEFS. 
 
On a more editorial note, it’s been nice to see the SE move from the GFS, but with the differences seen in the GFS/GEFS, I’m somewhat worried that the Euro/EPS is doing something better than the GFS and it’s still inching westward. Would really like to see the euro move SE today (say by tonight’s 0z runs) to validate the GFS trend.

Gefs at 96 hours have been fine before. Now they are useless lol?

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A few things I saw elsewhere that weren’t mentioned in here:
1. There was an aircraft mission with dropesondes off the west coast, so that will help resolve the upper air features. 
 
2. 0z EPS had almost all members take an inland track. Huge difference between the EPS and the 0z and especially 6z GEFS. Given that the GFS is still a western outlier to the GEFS and we know the GEFS uses older/less capable physics, kinda think you have to toss the GEFS. 
 
On a more editorial note, it’s been nice to see the SE move from the GFS, but with the differences seen in the GFS/GEFS, I’m somewhat worried that the Euro/EPS is doing something better than the GFS and it’s still inching westward. Would really like to see the euro move SE today (say by tonight’s 0z runs) to validate the GFS trend.

Gefs at 96 hours have been fine before. Now they are useless lol?

I mean, I hope not because 6z GEFS mean is perfect for us, but it’s pretty clear they’re missing something for this storm relative to all other higher resolution guidance that also has updated physics.

[mob1]

06Z Euro looks a bit better, has snow at hour 90 for SC and everything looks a touch east. It's hard to extrapolate from there as many models look good at that point and then take a sharp turn N or NW. We'll see what the EPS does. 

[nj2va]

6z Euro (runs to 90) appears slightly faster than 00z and also I’d say it (probably) stopped a further westward shift from 00z as it looks a touch S/E of 00z.  A wall of snow incoming with CHO getting SN++.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I mean, I hope not because 6z GEFS mean is perfect for us, but it’s pretty clear they’re missing something for this storm relative to all other higher resolution guidance that also has updated physics.

Do the GEFS get the additional recon flight data like the GFS has been receiving?

[mob1]

At H5, it's closed over the western Carolinas vs northern GA in its last run. 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

At H5, it's closed over the western Carolinas vs northern GA in its last run. 

The further east closed H5 low is good to see - like you said, hard to extrapolate from there but I’d wager the track would have been east of 00z if the run went on.

[winterymix]

Operational GFS is typical of warm-wet pattern.  Front end 3-6hrs snow and then the system rides the Bay with everybody-to rain for all of the sub-forum.

"The Sync" isn't working for mid-lantic

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I never stop worrying about that

Stop worrying lol. This is shaping up to be a nice WAA driven front end thump for out there.

You root for those because they work there. For eastern areas in these set ups the heavy precip on the front end is almost always too far west, and the screaming LL southerly jet kills the column pretty quickly. I'll take a sloppy inch to pad the solid start from last week, but a lot would have to change for me to have more than a casual interest at this point. 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Do the GEFS get the additional recon flight data like the GFS has been receiving?

Sure, all guidance will use it I expect.

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, winterymix said:

Operational GFS is typical of warm-wet pattern.  Front end 3-6hrs snow and then the system rides the Bay with everybody-to rain for all of the sub-forum.

"The Sync" isn't working for mid-lantic

Say whut?

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, mappy said:

Going to need you to tell me its going to snow. when you're ready  

I’d be very surprised if we didn’t get some snow.  It’s not a lock yet but maybe a 90% probability of at least 1” imo. What we’re figuring out now is it some snow washed away by rain or a storm where we have a nice snowpack when it’s over. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I still don’t think we will accurately know how that ns feature is gonna play out until tomorrow’s night.

[H2O]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Stop worrying lol. This is shaping up to be a nice WAA driven front end thump for out there.

You root for those because they work there. For eastern areas in these set ups the heavy precip on the front end is almost always too far west, and the screaming LL southerly jet kills the column pretty quickly. I'll take a sloppy inch to pad the solid start from last week, but a lot would have to change for me to have more than a casual interest at this point. 

The unshakable west track as of now is bad for coastal plain. Low level CAD might stick around longer west of the bay but agree that that column will roast quickly and a lot of that “snow” on those maps will be sleet/ice. 
 

This has gone from decent front end to it will do frozen for a little bit