yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 May this be the start of a good model run day for us all 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS Thanks Will. Not bad at all. Another tick east and many are happy 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just when you think your out, they pull you back in. Haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Just when you think your out, they pull you back in. Haha One thing looks certain..avoid driving on 81 Sunday…clobbered 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Can confirm that the GFS did take a noticeable shift S and E vs 0z...still not there enough to save us, but if you toggle between runs, you can def see it. Hopefully it continues...at this point we need to stop doing the 1 step forward 2 steps back dance. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ens again well east of op. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 wow, only 4 pages to read since i went to bed at 11. oh boy. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: wow, only 4 pages to read since i went to bed at 11. oh boy. You know that means Gloom and Doom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, mappy said: wow, only 4 pages to read since i went to bed at 11. oh boy. Just skip over everything until the last page. Last night wasn’t good (at least for east if 81), but hopefully the rest of the day will continue the 6z trend and stop the ledge jumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Latest WPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 New product I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: You know that means Gloom and Doom Not sure about that. Maybe we're suffering from STF, storm thread fatigue. Nothing wrong with the overnight runs. The guidance is moving the storm more south and east which will be good for everyone but we're still 3.5 days from first flakes. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, yoda said: May this be the start of a good model run day for us all Truth you speak....luck we will need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Not sure about that. Maybe we're suffering from STF, storm thread fatigue. Nothing wrong with the overnight runs. The guidance is moving the storm more south and east which will be good for everyone but we're still 3.5 days from first flakes. LOL Maybe ensembles are, but the ops are still going west. At some point, the op needs to match or at least trend toward the ensembles or the ensembles are just plain wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: Just when you think your out, they pull you back in. Haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Not sure about that. Maybe we're suffering from STF, storm thread fatigue. Nothing wrong with the overnight runs. The guidance is moving the storm more south and east which will be good for everyone but we're still 3.5 days from first flakes. LOL I was talking more about the lack of posting. If the track was 100-150 miles east. We would have had 10 pages to go through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, mappy said: wow, only 4 pages to read since i went to bed at 11. oh boy. At least there is an encouraging shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS lost all of the Western members at 6z. The mean slp is perfect. If I didnt see the op continually run this thing thru Harrisburg PA I would think the GEFS was honking a MECS from DC-BOS. This is good......real good: 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS lost all of the Western members at 6z. The mean slp is perfect. If I didnt see the op continually run this thing thru Harrisburg PA I would think the GEFS was honking a MECS from DC-BOS. This is good......real good: You took your meds today 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You took your meds today Nah, I havent even had coffee yet. Kids are off on a school ski club trip. Distractions are lessened. But ty for noticing. The GFS op took that track (right over or just east of.phl) that you and I both laid out last night on where we thought the surface weaknesses should have been tracking this yesterday, so the nudge finally appeared. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Good discussion by LWX: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A very potent low pressure system will be pushing across the southeastern U.S. on Sunday morning, with wintry weather ongoing to our southwest. The surface low will track north and east from there across our region through Sunday night and into the northeastern U.S. by Monday morning/afternoon. Confidence has increased in the path of this system at this point, with the expectation that the low pretty much bisects the region tracking west of the I-95 corridor. Virtually all guidance has come to this solution, with still varying tracks by a little here and there. The key is, there is a consensus starting to take shape. This ultimately translates to a very messy forecast, particularly along the I-95 corridor. With a strong surface high to the north, don`t see any way we don`t at least see some front end snowfall as the system approaches from the southwest. However, thinking we see a fairly quick transition to wintry mix then rain along/east of I-95 especially. For areas west of the I-95 corridor, well it is going to depend on how far west you are. Sill thinking areas east of the Blue Ridge will changeover to a wintry mix and even to all rain at some point. But think we could see more in the way of snowfall as the cold air holds on longer just along/east of the Blue Ridge. For areas west of the Blue Ridge out to the Alleghenies...this is where we will likely see the big winners in terms of snowfall with this event. Cold air is expected to remain locked in place as the low tracks east of these areas. All this being said, have come down a touch for the I-95 corridor in our winter threat matrix, as consensus builds on a less impactful event there. For areas west, especially west of the Blue Ridge, prepare for a significant winter storm Sunday night into Monday. We aren`t quite into the range for any snowfall amount forecasts just yet, so still a good bit of time for things to shift one way or the other. In fact, the 12z suite of guidance this morning will be the first that has a real sample of the upper-level features at play, as they just moved on land overnight. So, it is important to keep checking back in on our forecast as we fine tune it in the days to come. The ceiling for this event is high for the entire area if this system were to shift east, so keep that in mind for your planning purposes. For our latest forecasts, check weather.gov/lwx/winter. By Monday morning, the aforementioned low will be departing to the northeast. This will leave mostly dry and windy conditions across the region. Expect some lingering light upslope snow showers along the Allegheny Front, but should taper off by the afternoon or early evening. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS lost all of the Western members at 6z. The mean slp is perfect. If I didnt see the op continually run this thing thru Harrisburg PA I would think the GEFS was honking a MECS from DC-BOS. This is good......real good: Ok, when does Ji start worrying about suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Anyweather said: At least there is an encouraging shift east. i wasn't really worried about it. the GFS isn't handling the low placement well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You took your meds today Going to need you to tell me its going to snow. when you're ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 06z GEFS were nice. I'd buy in a heartbeat. Distinct east shift. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 06z GEFS were nice. I'd buy in a heartbeat. Distinct east shift.Snow maps yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 A few things I saw elsewhere that weren’t mentioned in here: 1. There was an aircraft mission with dropesondes off the west coast, so that will help resolve the upper air features. 2. 0z EPS had almost all members take an inland track. Huge difference between the EPS and the 0z and especially 6z GEFS. Given that the GFS is still a western outlier to the GEFS and we know the GEFS uses older/less capable physics, kinda think you have to toss the GEFS. On a more editorial note, it’s been nice to see the SE move from the GFS, but with the differences seen in the GFS/GEFS, I’m somewhat worried that the Euro/EPS is doing something better than the GFS and it’s still inching westward. Would really like to see the euro move SE today (say by tonight’s 0z runs) to validate the GFS trend. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Ok, when does Ji start worrying about suppression. I never stop worrying about that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 A few things I saw elsewhere that weren’t mentioned in here: 1. There was an aircraft mission with dropesondes off the west coast, so that will help resolve the upper air features. 2. 0z EPS had almost all members take an inland track. Huge difference between the EPS and the 0z and especially 6z GEFS. Given that the GFS is still a western outlier to the GEFS and we know the GEFS uses older/less capable physics, kinda think you have to toss the GEFS. On a more editorial note, it’s been nice to see the SE move from the GFS, but with the differences seen in the GFS/GEFS, I’m somewhat worried that the Euro/EPS is doing something better than the GFS and it’s still inching westward. Would really like to see the euro move SE today (say by tonight’s 0z runs) to validate the GFS trend.Gefs at 96 hours have been fine before. Now they are useless lol? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: A few things I saw elsewhere that weren’t mentioned in here: 1. There was an aircraft mission with dropesondes off the west coast, so that will help resolve the upper air features. 2. 0z EPS had almost all members take an inland track. Huge difference between the EPS and the 0z and especially 6z GEFS. Given that the GFS is still a western outlier to the GEFS and we know the GEFS uses older/less capable physics, kinda think you have to toss the GEFS. On a more editorial note, it’s been nice to see the SE move from the GFS, but with the differences seen in the GFS/GEFS, I’m somewhat worried that the Euro/EPS is doing something better than the GFS and it’s still inching westward. Would really like to see the euro move SE today (say by tonight’s 0z runs) to validate the GFS trend. Gefs at 96 hours have been fine before. Now they are useless lol? I mean, I hope not because 6z GEFS mean is perfect for us, but it’s pretty clear they’re missing something for this storm relative to all other higher resolution guidance that also has updated physics. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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