jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CentralVaNATS said: This???? Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Actually think he’s going to end up being fairly correct. I still think we end up with a storm that hugs the coast. Not the perfect area-wide MECS+ setup / track, especially for the cities, but much better than what we’re seeing on the GFS right now. This setup reminds me of several storms we saw in the early to mid 2000s which rode the immediate coastline. Snow to mix along 95 with a change to rain east of the bay, and 80+% snow for NW zones before a sleetfest 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: Its all about the thump now most likely. Get as much as you can up front and pray for a dryslot. I really hope not. The GFS torches me with 50 degree temperatures after it passes. Any snow that falls will melt quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: For the snow map weenies Highly doubt given the track that’s accurate. I think it’s safe to say at this point it’s going to end up a slop fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Well…….think the GEFS just said “hold my beer” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If the models still look like this 00z Friday when the storm is onshore and we have a ton more data to sample, I’ll be much more concerned than I am now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Actually think he’s going to end up being fairly correct. I still think we end up with a storm that hugs the coast. Not the perfect area-wide MECS+ setup / track, especially for the cities, but much better than what we’re seeing on the GFS right now. This setup reminds me of several storms we saw in the early to mid 2000s which rode the immediate coastline. Snow to mix along 95 with a change to rain east of the bay, and 80+% snow for NW zones before a sleetfest Key factor could be the current fish storm setting up maybe as a 50/50 in NS and nudges it more ESent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said: Well…….think the GEFS just said “hold my beer” Maps or it didn’t happen! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Tasty….that’s a big south and east shift right off the coast 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Because hope springs eternal 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Its all about the thump now most likely. Get as much as you can up front and pray for a dryslot. The way this is looking now, I’d say yes for I-95/close in burbs. But further N&W towards I-81 and west, the chance at staying all frozen is much higher. Of course, by Friday, GFS could be cutting this west of Pittsburgh, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS says “the whole sub forum can eat with this run” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Gefs went east lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, jayyy said: Pretty sure that HP off the coast of Boston is not going to be conducive of a good track after this frame. Can definitely see it cutting north right to DC Not exactly. It rides the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Canadian, moves even further NW from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ji said: Gefs went east lol All is good with the world now. Until the EURO destroys it again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Because hope springs eternal Gonna be a coastal huggerSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, TSSN+ said: Not exactly. It rides the coast Solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks to me the biggest problem with the models is consolidating the low pressure in a single location. The GFS is jumping back and forth between 2 of these lows, and that seems to be what is making the sudden west jog jyst before it hits us: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Random Chaos said: Looks to me the biggest problem with the models is consolidating the low pressure in a single location. The GFS is jumping back and forth between 2 of these lows, and that seems to be what is making the sudden west jog jyst before it hits us: Random chaos, in other words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Looks to me the biggest problem with the models is consolidating the low pressure in a single location. The GFS is jumping back and forth between 2 of these lows, and that seems to be what is making the sudden west jog jyst before it hits us: The irony is that models usually do the opposite when we want an offshore storm to move West, they chase the convection to the east and collapse the best dynamics there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS Ens Mean is awfully snowy for W NC into SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The individual members are all over the place on the 00z GEFS through 120 for snow. From misses to our NW (we rain) to 2' bombs to being missed to our SE entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, jayyy said: GFS Ens Mean is awfully snowy for W NC into SW VA There are many individual members that are near the benchmark. As a mean, it's almost comically different than the OP, it's unusual to such a large difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ZoomOnly 3 members west of dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: The individual members are all over the place on the 00z GEFS through 120 for snow. From misses to our NW (we rain) to 2' bombs to being missed to our SE entirely Yeah, this was a step back when it comes to confidence. A little bit troubling, a little bit exciting. 18z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 lulz 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Weird to see increasing divergence on the GFS ensembles, but the op has been pretty rock solid for what seems like forever now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t? He did. But I think he also said that at that range the GEFS would be more accurate than an op. Not sure whether that is still the case at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t? That was definitely discussed. But even so, we still weight the ensembles more heavily until about 72 hours out from most storms. At least I’m riding that theory for another 24 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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