Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Whatever it's worth (yeah not much perhaps!!), the Icon shows "rain" at 105 around the DC metro but looking at its surface temperature it is below freezing DC and north. So sleet/ice then? Similarly at 108. Here's the 2-m temps at 105: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: "Disregard the ICON it sucks" - when this forum hates what it says "I hope the ICON is right!!!" - when this forum likes what it says I love weather forums lolol -RSC disregarding and hoping are 2 way different things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Whatever it's worth (yeah not much perhaps!!), the Icon shows "rain" at 105 around the DC metro but looking at its surface temperature it is below freezing DC and north. So sleet/ice then? Similarly at 108. Here's the 2-m temps at 105: ICON seems to run super cold in storms. I remember last year, it had 17 degrees and rain or something in a FEb storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Okay. A real model is running. Thank god. The daily PM undercards are usually a debacle here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 WB 0Z ICON 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Whatever it's worth (yeah not much perhaps!!), the Icon shows "rain" at 105 around the DC metro but looking at its surface temperature it is below freezing DC and north. So sleet/ice then? Similarly at 108. Here's the 2-m temps at 105: As far as I know, the ICON reads every non-snow precip type as "rain". So what they depict as "rain" may very well be a wintry mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 00z gfs-- hour 6-the tiny blip of precip in the southmost part of texas shifted by a mile 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: ICON seems to run super cold in storms. I remember last year, it had 17 degrees and rain or something in a FEb storm Could be, I'm not familiar with the ICON's tendencies overall. But I also know those depictions on TT at least, it doesn't distinguish between snow and anything else. So many times when it shows rain it could well be ice depending on the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 00z gfs-- hour 6-the tiny blip of precip in the southmost part of texas shifted by a mile Trends are our friend tonight. Even if it’s 1 mile lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Fozz said: As far as I know, the ICON reads every non-snow precip type as "rain". So what they depict as "rain" may very well be a wintry mix. Yup, which is why I looked at and showed the temps at that particular hour. Taken verbatim, we're probably sleeting or freezing rain. I didn't look at any soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coolio Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ICON always blows when it does rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 00z gfs-- hour 6-the tiny blip of precip in the southmost part of texas shifted by a mile Thx yoda 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 There are some slight, but notable differences so far, H5 I mean... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ICON says: I have a dream... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yep. Let’s get the trend started tonight with 0z with a slow but steady trend E over the next few days. Still plenty of ensemble members with great tracks and even some misses to the SE. Plenty of time for a consensus track in the middle to arise 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Much better at 60 on the H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Through 63 the GFS is significantly south at 500. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Give me the 0z ICONs 500mb setup with a SW somewhere along the coast and I’ll happily roll the dice in my neck of the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS ULL south through 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: Through 63 the GFS is significantly south at 500. It’s coming my friend 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The axis and orientation of h5 on GFS is the best since about 4-5 runs ago. South and pos tilted thru 66 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 I wish I could have yall's optimism on this run 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: I wish I could have yall's optimism Doesn’t mean the outcome is gonna be determined. What matters is the capture and trailing energy thru 78-84. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Def south to me at 78 re h5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I wish I could have yall's optimism on this run 22 years of tracking heartbreaks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1000mb SLP S of ATL at 84... h5 low isn't far behind in C AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 22 years of tracking heartbreaks I’m right there with you. I’ll drink an extra one tonight for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Mmmhmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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