Steve25 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 54 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Although rare, there was a storm (I think 2015?) where the low went over/west of us but there was so much antecedent cold that we got mostly snow before the slot. I remember this but I don't recall specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, mob1 said: Look how far west it's closed off at 500 mb, if you extrapolate that it probably ends up really far west. Even compared to the GFS and Euro is significantly further west. How’s it look for New York? Im thinking heavy heavy rain. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How’s it look for New York? Im thinking heavy heavy rain. The heaviest. Winds at least look exciting. Good luck guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, mob1 said: Look how far west it's closed off at 500 mb, if you extrapolate that it probably ends up really far west. Even compared to the GFS and Euro is significantly further west. Not sure its worth analyzing the NAM at 500 at the end of the run but it closed off 500 east of Euro and GFS. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Not sure its worth analyzing the NAM at 500 at the end of the run but it closed off 500 east of Euro and GFS. It isn't, but like you said it's the NAM at 84 hours. Hope you guys get clobbered, just saying what it shows. To perhaps level the playing field, it has the 250 mb jet further south and in a better position. It's closed off a full state west (though it's probably too agressive in that regard) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Would really like to see a clear trend east begin by 12z tomorrow or 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mob1 said: It isn't, but like you said it's the NAM at 84 hours. Hope you guys get clobbered, just saying what it shows. To perhaps level the playing field, it has the 250 mb jet further south and in a better position. No. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The development with the ns over the northern plains wasn’t good. Not what I wanted to see. But also not something I have confidence that the NAM would get right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Steve25 said: I remember this but I don't recall specifics. Might have been Feb 21, 2015. Daytime snow too. Picked up around 6-8” I think. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: No. You're not comparing the same time frame. I'm talking about the NAM at the end of it's run vs the GFS and Euro at the same time (12Z Sunday). I wasn't being combative, I was replying to a specific post that showed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Frankly, at this point I'm just hoping for as little heavy rain as possible around Baltimore. If it's possible to go snow/sleet to dry slot, all aboard! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Steve25 said: Frankly, at this point I'm just hoping for as little heavy rain as possible around Baltimore. If it's possible to go snow/sleet to dry slot, all aboard! I mean the majority of the area could use a good soaking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How’s it look for New York? Im thinking heavy heavy rain. Snow to sleet, briefly rain (possible thunderstorms), back to sleet and blowing snow to end, snow gradient from 4-6" southern Queens to 8-12" Yonkers-White Plains area, heavier further up the Hudson valley and into n NJ. Or just all snow if this goes back to a full coastal scenario. Strong east winds during snow and sleet, later strong west to northwest winds during wrap-around blowing snow. Brief temp spike to 40 F possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 He is thinking locally 2+ feet for some in western VA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 At least so far he ICON looks a little better up in the Canadian border. Let’s see if that holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: At least so far he ICON looks a little better up in the Canadian border. Let’s see if that holds. It ends up looking REALLY good for this area (especially just west of DC), definitely shifted east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Tropical Tidbits picked a bad week to quit drinking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mob1 said: It ends up looking REALLY good for this area (especially just west of DC), definitely shifted east. I can’t see it yet at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Tropical Tidbits picked a bad week to quit drinking. It's out on StormVista and you'll like the end result, moved east by a fair bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The ns is definitely holding back at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 i like what the Icon is doing so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Savannah GA at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, mob1 said: You're not comparing the same time frame. I'm talking about the NAM at the end of it's run vs the GFS and Euro at the same time (12Z Sunday). I wasn't being combative, I was replying to a specific post that showed that. Don’t want to clog up the thread more so we’ll just agree to disagree - I was looking at the location of where the 500 low closes off (regardless of the model time). time to move on from the 84H NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The ns is definitely holding back at 84 SFC high is definitely pressing more vs 18z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: SFC high is definitely pressing more vs 18z Heights over NE at 90 are lower too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 FWIW, the latest blend. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 To those who understand the intricacies of all this and wouldn't mind giving me a little lesson. What is the driving force(or lack of a driving force) allowing the low to track right up over our area vs becoming a full blown coastal? With so many people just hoping it will come east, what specifically would need to happen differently with the setup currently being depicted to even allow for it to come substantially east, and is that even any bit realistic to hope for at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just west of OBX at 99. Nice shift south and east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 BOOM. If we get a 500 pass through NC it is game on. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ICON wants to start pushing the door back open. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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