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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t thunk 18z eps was west. It just was deeper due to a few more amped members and less outliers.  So there was the illusion of a west shift by adding some more isobars and colors within the broader low position of 12z. The axis of the snow probabilities and means didn’t change at all and looking at the individual low plots they’re clustered about the same as 12z.  Additionally there are more misses to the southeast, at least for the northwestern part of this sub, then I expected. 

29FF20D7-407D-4832-807D-EE3F8FEF376A.thumb.png.0e4d0012a40275fb7ee370fa70ddfd32.png6C038748-2031-498D-BDB5-4126CDAFF03E.thumb.png.3546b5e92dbbd94b91476dde06a4f8e2.png

 

Agreed Steve, can you email me a link to tonight’s zoom? 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I disagree. I think pretty much everyone sees a significant snow before any flip happens. A 3-6 inch thump is significant. 

I can agree with that…but what I was saying is the current state of the model data we are 50/50 from swinging in either direction. Either the sub forum gets a big time snow or the sub forum gets a mixed bag precip event. Even with a mixed bag event, yes, 3-6 is doable. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z euro control does the same thing the Gfs does. Cuts the low from Wilmington NC to Hagerstown MD. Lol. 
 

It has the same improved look at 90 as the op but it seems the more amplified SW offsets those other improvements. The storm gets to eastern NC then goes nuts. By then the confluence is gone and nothing but ridging over the top so nothing to stop it from cutting due north. 

The  18z Icon match the Euro and did this also.  Seems there's no avoiding that track, it stays further south initially and the HP moves offshore when the low's further south and has more time to pull it back west before it gets here.

We need it to trend 300 miles ENE to make a big difference which doesn't happen with disturbances tracking across the gulf coast.  That's why I gave up on big snows for 95% of the area this morning.  

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13 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Regardless of the airmass, doesn’t this map just look off given the track??? I find it hard to believe with a shitty track we even receive half of this….

You’re underestimating the cold air. My guess is that many might not even switch over to rain, and if they do it would probably be brief as long as you aren’t way east of the low.

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I disagree. I think pretty much everyone sees a significant snow before any flip happens. A 3-6 inch thump is significant. 

That's the big thing, focusing on track and tunnel visioning on the chances that the low either ends up east of the bay or in Cleveland is foolhardy. Take away 1-3 degrees in the lower parts of the column for as little as a couple hours and suddenly everyone west of the bay is looking at a potential warning or better level event. That's a good event, especially with what looks like a good pattern for the rest of January. We don't need a blizzard, just juice the thump and avoid the slop by getting put in the dry slot once we torch and this will be nice.

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t thunk 18z eps was west. It just was deeper due to a few more amped members and less outliers.  So there was the illusion of a west shift by adding some more isobars and colors within the broader low position of 12z. The axis of the snow probabilities and means didn’t change at all and looking at the individual low plots they’re clustered about the same as 12z.  Additionally there are more misses to the southeast, at least for the northwestern part of this sub, then I expected. 

29FF20D7-407D-4832-807D-EE3F8FEF376A.thumb.png.0e4d0012a40275fb7ee370fa70ddfd32.png6C038748-2031-498D-BDB5-4126CDAFF03E.thumb.png.3546b5e92dbbd94b91476dde06a4f8e2.png

 

If you draw a line straight south out of dc there are more lows west of that line than at 12z. Some are west of me

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26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m probably making it sound worse than it is. The 18z euro control (and it looked very similar at 90 to the op euro so I think it’s safe to say this is about what the 18z euro was just lower resolution) was fine. Just saying given what it looked like at 90-100 hours a but shocking the low ends up over Hagerstown.  But this seems acceptable Imo.  We can thank the cold airmass in place for these results despite the track. 
 
7y3We87.png

For a mean, this seems pretty darn acceptable.   

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22 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Regardless of the airmass, doesn’t this map just look off given the track??? I find it hard to believe with a shitty track we even receive half of this….

Although rare, there was a storm (I think 2015?) where the low went over/west of us but there was so much antecedent cold that we got mostly snow before the slot.

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1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

DT aleet for his website crashing :lol:

87ECAA18-3322-46B5-8AC6-2E247B469ADC.jpeg

Oh for crying out loud. Cut me a break….welcome to the party DT. Pull up a chair and get comfortable. If I had a dollar for every message I received today on my Facebook page regarding Storm specifics I could probably afford a down payment on a car

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t thunk 18z eps was west. It just was deeper due to a few more amped members and less outliers.  So there was the illusion of a west shift by adding some more isobars and colors within the broader low position of 12z. The axis of the snow probabilities and means didn’t change at all and looking at the individual low plots they’re clustered about the same as 12z.  Additionally there are more misses to the southeast, at least for the northwestern part of this sub, then I expected. 

29FF20D7-407D-4832-807D-EE3F8FEF376A.thumb.png.0e4d0012a40275fb7ee370fa70ddfd32.png6C038748-2031-498D-BDB5-4126CDAFF03E.thumb.png.3546b5e92dbbd94b91476dde06a4f8e2.png

 

32, everybody eats

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23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I disagree. I think pretty much everyone sees a significant snow before any flip happens. A 3-6 inch thump is significant. 

Yeah, not sure what this discussion is all about. I can't even remember how many bad track storms dropped 3-6" around the area. They aren't rare.  Many of them had much worse conditions leading in. Bad analysis. 

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Not sure its worth analyzing the NAM at 500 at the end of the run but it closed off 500 east of Euro and GFS.  

It isn't, but like you said it's the NAM at 84 hours. Hope you guys get clobbered, just saying what it shows. To perhaps level the playing field, it has the 250 mb jet further south and in a better position. It's closed off a full state west (though it's probably too agressive in that regard) 

gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png

namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png

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