psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I’ll open the zoom around 10:20 and stay until at least 11. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoSailer Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z GFS hammers coastal areas...would be some respectable impacts from that along Delmarva. Hurricane force gusts in OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I need to ask..... Why is that NS SW phasing with our storm rather than acting as a kicker? I’d say that has to do with mass, space-time curvature and lack of anything in between. They are acting like magnets. Of course I have no real clue 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: 12z That appears to be well west is 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If anything, 18z EPS is a bit west of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That appears to be well west is 12z Agreed but there seems to be increased spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: Agreed but there seems to be increased spread? I think that’s a fair assessment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @psuhoffman be sure to send that link to cntrtim and rickemdockemribots 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Starting to pile up a lot of support for an overhead track. The door for a clean snowstorm is getting awful close to closing for a lot of us. On the other hand, it also looks like a lot of us are going to get more than a little snow. Hard to complain there. The heater continues 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z euro control does the same thing the Gfs does. Cuts the low from Wilmington NC to Hagerstown MD. Lol. It has the same improved look at 90 as the op but it seems the more amplified SW offsets those other improvements. The storm gets to eastern NC then goes nuts. By then the confluence is gone and nothing but ridging over the top so nothing to stop it from cutting due north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Starting to pile up a lot of support for an overhead track. The door for a clean snowstorm is getting awful close to closing for a lot of us. On the other hand, it also looks like a lot of us are going to get more than a little snow. Hard to complain there. The heater continues That snow would be followed and potentially washed away by very heavy rain though, am I right about that? Specifically near the Metros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 986mb over HGR at 18z. Interesting when compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I’m probably making it sound worse than it is. The 18z euro control (and it looked very similar at 90 to the op euro so I think it’s safe to say this is about what the 18z euro was just lower resolution) was fine. Just saying given what it looked like at 90-100 hours a but shocking the low ends up over Hagerstown. But this seems acceptable Imo. We can thank the cold airmass in place for these results despite the track. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Starting to pile up a lot of support for an overhead track. The door for a clean snowstorm is getting awful close to closing for a lot of us. On the other hand, it also looks like a lot of us are going to get more than a little snow. Hard to complain there. The heater continues The heater may just be starting to heat up!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z euro control does the same thing the Gfs does. Cuts the low from Wilmington NC to Hagerstown MD. Lol. It has the same improved look at 90 as the op but it seems the more amplified SW offsets those other improvements. The storm gets to eastern NC then goes nuts. By then the confluence is gone and nothing but ridging over the top so nothing to stop it from cutting due north. Still think the models are not handling the northern stream energy properly. Unfortunately we might not have a better idea until tomorrow or Friday when NWS ballon soundings are conducted and the data gets ingested. Honestly this is a close call right now for a large portion of this sub forum. Either a big snow or a huge swing and miss with a mix bag. It’s like we are in the 9th inning, 3-2 count with the bases loaded. Tying run on first base, grand slam would win it. The pitcher is prime Randy Johnson and we are a rookie no name call-up from the minor leagues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z euro control does the same thing the Gfs does. Cuts the low from Wilmington NC to Hagerstown MD. Lol. It has the same improved look at 90 as the op but it seems the more amplified SW offsets those other improvements. The storm gets to eastern NC then goes nuts. By then the confluence is gone and nothing but ridging over the top so nothing to stop it from cutting due north. So what your saying is the likely hood of significant snow for the majority is not likely and the chances of it going back in our favor is closing fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdcrob Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: The pitcher is prime Randy Johnson and we are a rookie no name call-up from the minor leagues. Right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m probably making it sound worse than it is. The 18z euro control (and it looked very similar at 90 to the op euro so I think it’s safe to say this is about what the 18z euro was just lower resolution) was fine. Just saying given what it looked like at 90-100 hours a but shocking the low ends up over Hagerstown. But this seems acceptable Imo. We can thank the cold airmass in place for these results despite the track. Regardless of the airmass, doesn’t this map just look off given the track??? I find it hard to believe with a shitty track we even receive half of this…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, jewell2188 said: Regardless of the airmass, doesn’t this map just look off given the track??? I find it hard to believe with a shitty track we even receive half of this…. Agreed. Climatology speaks volumes here, so do analogs. What is shown is not a typical end result to the depicted storm evolution and track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I don’t thunk 18z eps was west. It just was deeper due to a few more amped members and less outliers. So there was the illusion of a west shift by adding some more isobars and colors within the broader low position of 12z. The axis of the snow probabilities and means didn’t change at all and looking at the individual low plots they’re clustered about the same as 12z. Additionally there are more misses to the southeast, at least for the northwestern part of this sub, then I expected. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Is this technically what the model is saying the "end result" will be though? Or is this just the total snowfall from before the changeover, then you use your imagination to figure out how much of it gets wiped away by rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: Is this technically what the model is saying the "end result" will be though? Or is this just the total snowfall from before the changeover, then you use your imagination to figure out how much of it gets wiped away by rain? Total snowfall. It doesn’t tell you what will actually be on the ground when all is said and done. There is also a “Snow Depth” map but I usually find it to be overly pessimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Regardless of the airmass, doesn’t this map just look off given the track??? I find it hard to believe with a shitty track we even receive half of this…. Not necessarily…the low gets into southeast VA. At that time it’s snowing here. Cold airmass in place will take several hours to erode even with the SE flow. From there yea the low moves N instead of NE and eventually that warms us but until it gets up into central VA were probably ok. And once it gets to us we probably dry slot. Getting it to our south before it turns north is huge here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There are a ton of big hits from I-95 west on the 18z EPS. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t thunk 18z eps was west. It just was deeper due to a few more amped members and less outliers. So there was the illusion of a west shift by adding some more isobars and colors within the broader low position of 12z. The axis of the snow probabilities and means didn’t change at all and looking at the individual low plots they’re clustered about the same as 12z. Additionally there are more misses to the southeast, at least for the northwestern part of this sub, then I expected. If we get a p35 solution on an op run I’d laugh myself to death. Everyone worried about too far NW then it just whiffs SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Still think the models are not handling the northern stream energy properly. Unfortunately we might not have a better idea until tomorrow or Friday when NWS ballon soundings are conducted and the data gets ingested. Honestly this is a close call right now for a large portion of this sub forum. Either a big snow or a huge swing and miss with a mix bag. It’s like we are in the 9th inning, 3-2 count with the bases loaded. Tying run on first base, grand slam would win it. The pitcher is prime Randy Johnson and we are a rookie no name call-up from the minor leagues. I disagree. I think pretty much everyone sees a significant snow before any flip happens. A 3-6 inch thump is significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: There are a ton of big hits from I-95 west on the 18z EPS. Yeah agreed, some BIG hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Yeah agreed, some BIG hits. Only 1 miss on the EPS, almost everything else is warning criteria snow/sleet I-95 west it seems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts