psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The differences I described above continue through 78 hours. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ? 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: maybe he meant Euro? With respect to potential coastline impacts, not frozen precip. Should have clarified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Check out these temps as the 18z Euro ends (12z Sunday) 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro snow maps??. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Check out these temps as the 18z Euro ends (12z Sunday) Whoa. Thats the coldest run of any model yet. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Euro snow maps?? . There is none. Only goes out 90 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Where 18z EC it ends at 90 it’s hard to say. You would think it looks great just from this… The positives…the surface low is SE of 12z at 90 hrs. So is the h5 low. Slightly more confluence and suppressive flow over the northeast. Negatives… the h5 is more amplified, there is slightly more ridging to the north of the low and as the tpv lobe exits to our north that’s a problem. Unknowns…how the phasing is going to occur Overall I think this is a slight improvement over 12z. This is going to turn north but getting it faster and further southeast before that happens is our best bet Imo. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 41 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said: Quick question - at what stage do the ensemble means perform the averaging? Is it done at a low level, averaging pressures and temperatures and then generating output products? Or is it at the very end, averaging (for example) every output snowfall together? The ensemble is a certain number, 20-50 depending on the model system, of lower resolution model runs with perturbed initial conditions. A mean of those members is produced at each time step for any particular variable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: With respect to potential coastline impacts, not frozen precip. Should have clarified. You don't see a 980 low over hagerstown often. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 One last positive and something I keep coming back too. It’s COLD in front. This has the best antecedent airmass of all the analogs we’re throwing around. That might make a big difference. 18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Be very very cautious of that. I’d bet good money there would be a 925-850mb warm layer in there with that solution verbatim. Driving pingers. Yeah, awfully tough to not given the 60-70kt winds between 925-850mb. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Last comp. It’s hard to compare because the Gfs is much faster but if you take the Gfs when it had the h5 and surface low where the euro does at 90 hrs the euro is significant colder and south. Which is pretty amazing given the Gfs was at that point 12 hours sooner with less time to scour the fresh cold airmass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Biggest January snowstorms I could find, surprisingly all +6-8 days from our event. Take out the Strong El Nino and it looks like this -AO or west-based -NAO seems to be the core feature. ^-NAO SLP is strong in 6 analogs. Ridge over the northern landmass, that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 A faster primary shortwave helps us in a couple ways. It also increases the separation between it and the northern stream shortwave that yanks it north. 18z GEFS shows this we’ll around 96-108hrs. We wanted more separation between this and the ocean low at one point. Now we want more between the northern shortwave. Hopefully we can get more. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The ensemble is a certain number, 20-50 depending on the model system, of lower resolution model runs with perturbed initial conditions. A mean of those members is produced at each time step for any particular variable. The question I'm posing is whether a mean is always an end product (like an average of 50 rainfall amounts at each geographic point) or if the means are computed internally to generate a "mean" atmosphere at each timestamp and then used to generate a single output after additional processing. I assume it's the former as the latter would seem to be problematic but I had never thought about it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: A faster primary shortwave helps us in a couple ways. It also increases the separation between it and the northern stream shortwave that yanks it north. 18z GEFS shows this we’ll around 96-108hrs. We wanted more separation between this and the ocean low at one point. Now we want more between the northern shortwave. Hopefully we can get more. We better switch to geico… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 When I travel it snows...landed in Orlando a few mins ago, 72F. Will be home Saturday night for Sunday night action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: When I travel it snows...landed in Orlando a few mins ago, 72F. Will be home Saturday night for Sunday night action. Could you stay there til the end of January then? Asking for a friend 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Any interest in a short zoom tonight as Gfs comes in? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Any interest in a short zoom tonight as Gfs comes in? Definitely. Can you send me a link? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: Could you stay there til the end of January then? Asking for a friend Ain't missing this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Definitely. Can you send me a link? Thanks! Email me at [email protected] and I’ll forward you the link. This goes for anyone else that needs it. Same link as last time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: A faster primary shortwave helps us in a couple ways. It also increases the separation between it and the northern stream shortwave that yanks it north. 18z GEFS shows this we’ll around 96-108hrs. We wanted more separation between this and the ocean low at one point. Now we want more between the northern shortwave. Hopefully we can get more. Tomorrow it will probably outrun it and we will be worried about suppression. Negative weenie comment.. Just carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where 18z EC it ends at 90 it’s hard to say. You would think it looks great just from this… The positives…the surface low is SE of 12z at 90 hrs. So is the h5 low. Slightly more confluence and suppressive flow over the northeast. Negatives… the h5 is more amplified, there is slightly more ridging to the north of the low and as the tpv lobe exits to our north that’s a problem. Unknowns…how the phasing is going to occur Overall I think this is a slight improvement over 12z. This is going to turn north but getting it faster and further southeast before that happens is our best bet Imo. You would think 99% beatdown. That’s exactly why I think that’s exactly what will happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Email me at [email protected] and I’ll forward you the link. This goes for anyone else that needs it. Same link as last time. Steve ill see you guys in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: You would think 99% beatdown. That’s exactly why I think that’s exactly what will happen. I know it's dependant on the low track but damn when it's snowing in Atlanta. Come on. You would think we're getting smoked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You would think 99% beatdown. That’s exactly why I think that’s exactly what will happen. Yeah seriously...like any other time you see that on a model run it's a definitive "INCOMING!" But instead we've been seeing the model pull the low up like a yo-yo...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Any interest in a short zoom tonight as Gfs comes in? I’ll be in bed by then most likely and gone for a couple days coming up but will be back in town Sat night if you do one then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Another “fly in the ointment” with this forecast is the Baja Low. Operational models are having a hard time with it, along with the northern shortwave. Ensembles seem to be handling them better. Honestly…you would think that the expected trend is a crush job showing up with later model runs for NOVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 But….wouldn’t be surprised to see the operational models tonight crap the bed and produce a cold rain with some sleet and ice for areas east of the mountains. One can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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