mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: That was tongue in cheek, since you have name, you know, of Mappy. I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The apparent “jump” west is somewhat of an artifact of where the graphics routine plots an L. What’s happening physically is the storm is occluding and becoming vertically stacked as it moves through VA. I'll always root for the eye of a stacked low to pass over my house. Literally clearish skies. Lol. Would be at night tho unless I'm bad at time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Joe B keeps saying March, 1994 is an analog. Of course he does it’s State Colleges biggest snowstorm ever. Lol. But it is a good analog but so is an early Jan 94 storm and Jan 12 96 and Feb 14 and there was a storm in December 2012 somewhat similar and they all had slightly different end results. He chooses the one that gave him 28” of course lol. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GEFS supports that in all honesty. I cant ever remember a track like the GFS is spitting out. The GEFS would be a classic bomb for just about everyone in here. Except the Eastern Shore folks. Bob mentioned this earlier as a reminder…the GFS was upgraded, the GEFS was not. High Risk mentioned the possible implications yesterday. With that said, the mock up track PSU drew makes more sense given other features of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 25 minutes ago, mappy said: How do you know that’s even snowfall? Let alone what the colors actually mean 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: There’s no legend lol but thanks friend, Fozz hooked me up with links to the actual maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The good news is this is not likely to be the final solution. The bad news is this is not likely to be the final solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The good news is this is not likely to be the final solution. The bad news is this is not likely to be the final solution. I thought it was a fine run tbh. The low isn’t going to go where the gfs shows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Quick question - at what stage do the ensemble means perform the averaging? Is it done at a low level, averaging pressures and temperatures and then generating output products? Or is it at the very end, averaging (for example) every output snowfall together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Guys remember the old 5 day business planner in the 90s sponsored by Juan Valdez and Days Inn? Today the storm would have been on the very last day of that forecast. How seriously did anyone take the day 5 of that thing? Would we have dreamed of discussing the meso scale details we are right now? Yes maybe this should temper our enthusiasm some but my real point is to be amazed and how far we’ve come! I used to live and die by that thing all winter long. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 30 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: If for some reason it's a fail in Gainesville, I can always look to the hills west of me for the snow. You know we are not close enough to game time where the low couldn’t keep sliding SE…open it up at h5 keep it positive titled and further south …mix in some extra confluence and boom …we are smoking cirrus…likely no…impossible well who knows but my time on this earth has told me nothing is a lock. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 19 minutes ago, mappy said: I thought it was a fine run tbh. The low isn’t going to go where the gfs shows It is. That’s why i said it’s bad news. I’d like to keep it the way it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said: Quick question - at what stage do the ensemble means perform the averaging? Is it done at a low level, averaging pressures and temperatures and then generating output products? Or is it at the very end, averaging (for example) every output snowfall together? Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure snowfall maps are made with mean at the very end. This is why you’ll sometimes see a mean of 1” snowfall when 1 member has a blizzard but the others have 45 degrees and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said: Quick question - at what stage do the ensemble means perform the averaging? Is it done at a low level, averaging pressures and temperatures and then generating output products? Or is it at the very end, averaging (for example) every output snowfall together? IMO, inside 72 to 84 hr their worth is diminished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll always root for the eye of a stacked low to pass over my house. Literally clearish skies. Lol. Would be at night tho unless I'm bad at time. Root for it because you will radiate back down and it will help the column go under 0F 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You know we are not close enough to game time where the low couldn’t keep sliding SE…open it up at h5 keep it positive titled and further south …mix in some extra confluence and boom …we are smoking cirrus…likely no…impossible well who knows but my time on this earth has told me nothing is a lock. Brother, you need to again start drinking heavily! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z Euro appears faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z GFS hammers coastal areas...would be some respectable impacts from that along Delmarva. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z GFS hammers coastal areas...would be some respectable impacts from that along Delmarva. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: ? maybe he meant Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z Euro appears faster it was a good 6 hours behind gfs in prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z Euro appears faster Through 66 it is (good). SW slightly east of 12z and less ridging and lower heights in front of it. High is slightly south. Slight improvements from what I can see. Obviously though we don’t know about the most important part which is the phase that happens later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: maybe he meant Euro? I think he meant with winds early next week, models have a rather significant wind event for coastal areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The differences I described above continue through 78 hours. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: ? 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: maybe he meant Euro? With respect to potential coastline impacts, not frozen precip. Should have clarified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Check out these temps as the 18z Euro ends (12z Sunday) 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro snow maps??. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Check out these temps as the 18z Euro ends (12z Sunday) Whoa. Thats the coldest run of any model yet. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Euro snow maps?? . There is none. Only goes out 90 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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