StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GFS is too far NW. -NAO since theyear2000 sticks low pressure's to the coast, it will trend SE. -NAO,-NAO, 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Joe B keeps saying March, 1994 is an analog. He isnt using March 93? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GEFS does not have Kuchera on WB so snow maps are probably underdone NW. Also precipitation is slightly less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Guys remember the old 5 day business planner in the 90s sponsored by Juan Valdez and Days Inn? Today the storm would have been on the very last day of that forecast. How seriously did anyone take the day 5 of that thing? Would we have dreamed of discussing the meso scale details we are right now? Yes maybe this should temper our enthusiasm some but my real point is to be amazed and how far we’ve come! 12 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: He isnt using March 93? How do you know that’s even snowfall? Let alone what the colors actually mean 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ensembles do actually look better and a good bit east of 12z The ensembles look closer to what I think the op should have looked like post 96 hours lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: How do you know that’s even snowfall? Let alone what the colors actually mean It could just be a bad psychedelic dream from the '60s or '70s too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, snowfan said: Someone in the proximity of this sounding would be ripping prior to changeover. Be very very cautious of that. I’d bet good money there would be a 925-850mb warm layer in there with that solution verbatim. Driving pingers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, mappy said: How do you know that’s even snowfall? Let alone what the colors actually mean Famartin posted a bunch of those maps on his site. This one has the proper legend. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/NJSnow-03Mar94.png http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/03-Mar-94.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: It could just be a bad dream from the '60s or '70s too! Could be! We may never know because there isn’t a legend. yes, this is a hill I am willing to die on 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I know the GEFS aren't made for thermals per se, but fwiw the mean does keep the surface at or below 32 the duration in DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Can anyone with more knowledge answer why WxBell does not display GEFS members with the option of kuchera? Is it a resolution thing, or is it just purely a decision they made. Curious as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Fozz said: Famartin posted a bunch of those maps on his site. This one has the proper legend. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/NJSnow-03Mar94.png http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/03-Mar-94.html Thanks friend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 To be fair over the last 36 hours all the solutions among the more reliable globals have been between a coastal hugger and an inside runner. They all track the low somewhere through central or eastern NC and at our latitude between the Delmarva and Dulles. For 120 hours away that’s remarkably narrow goalposts imo. It’s just that we’re on a razors edge between a significant snowstorm or something less impactful. But 30 years ago we likely would be looking at goalposts between Indiana and Bermuda for the track at 5 days out! We’re now talking about details at day 5 we couldn’t imagine at day 2 when I first got into this game. Bingo!! Wish the youngsters understood this!!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Could be! We may never know because there isn’t a legend. yes, this is a hill I am willing to die on I'm kind of the same. When someone posts a map with a ton of colors but no explanation of the scale! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Guys remember the old 5 day business planner in the 90s sponsored by Juan Valdez and Days Inn? Today the storm would have been on the very last day of that forecast. How seriously did anyone take the day 5 of that thing? Would we have dreamed of discussing the meso scale details we are right now? Yes maybe this should temper our enthusiasm some but my real point is to be amazed and how far we’ve come! No cap 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I'm kind of the same. When someone posts a map with a ton of colors but no explanation of the scale! Mapping 101 Always Include a Legend 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Mapping 101 Always Include A Legend Yes! Otherwise it's..."dafuq am I lookin' at???" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Bingo!! Wish the youngsters understood this!! . I'm sorry but if you want to post in this sub forum, you need to remove that HIDEOUS Yankees logo. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Can anyone with more knowledge answer why WxBell does not display GEFS members with the option of kuchera? Is it a resolution thing, or is it just purely a decision they made. Curious as hell. The GEFS mean is a composite of 30 different simulations. It would be very messy and not practical at all to try speculating on the exact ratio of the snow from an average of 30 different versions of a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Mapping 101 Always Include A Legend Jeez who would have thought you would have taken offence at bad mappage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, ravensrule said: I'm sorry but if you want to post in this sub forum, you need to remove that HIDEOUS Yankees logo. Pffft no way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, cbmclean said: Jeez who would have thought you would have taken offence at bad mappage. Everyone? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Fozz said: The GEFS mean is a composite of 30 different simulations. It would be very messy and not practical at all to try speculating on the exact ratio of the snow from an average of 30 different versions of a run. I was referring to the individual members on the screengrabs where it displays all their perceived outcomes.. I do agree that for a mean it would be a bit more tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 45 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Route 28. The great divide…66 is the other one. If for some reason it's a fail in Gainesville, I can always look to the hills west of me for the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Wonderdog said: If for some reason it's a fail in Gainesville, I can always look to the hills west of me for the snow. Yes the hills are alive I’ve heard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Everyone? That was tongue in cheek, since you have name, you know, of Mappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I was referring to the individual members on the screengrabs where it displays all their perceived outcomes.. I do agree that for a mean it would be a bit more tricky. It's already a lower resolution run, so calculating a Kuchera ratio is based on a level of detail and precision that doesn't make sense for ensembles. The point of the ensembles is to show the big picture, especially more than a few days away when things are too uncertain to rely on just the operational run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, mappy said: Mapping 101 Always Include a Legend Reminds me of when I took calculus in high school. The teacher pounded into our brains to NEVER forget the "dx" in an integral and to NEVER forget to add the constant in the solution of an indefinite integral! He always said, before an exam, "remember...minus 1/2 point for every missed 'dx' and every missed '+ C' "!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: To be fair over the last 36 hours all the solutions among the more reliable globals have been between a coastal hugger and an inside runner. They all track the low somewhere through central or eastern NC and at our latitude between the Delmarva and Dulles. For 120 hours away that’s remarkably narrow goalposts imo. It’s just that we’re on a razors edge between a significant snowstorm or something less impactful. But 30 years ago we likely would be looking at goalposts between Indiana and Bermuda for the track at 5 days out! We’re now talking about details at day 5 we couldn’t imagine at day 2 when I first got into this game. howard violenty disagrees 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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