stormy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The latest models seem to be suggesting a major event. We all need to remember that this is 96 hrs. into the future and changes will occur. The trough entering the Great lakes and retreating HP over the North Atlantic will decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ensembles do actually look better and a good bit east of 12z 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 33 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Low from near VA beach to Hagerstown? Ok then lol Must be convective feedback issues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: Must be convective feedback issues. Man, an oldie but goodie 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There have to be some members that follow the weakness though, from Greenville up over Philly looks like where it probably wanted to end up. Dynamics as it stacks likely cause interference of convective nature out closer to where the surface low ended up this run. Where's WW with his percentage maps of the gefs? He's napping on his job 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Wrt the NW track. It can happen and I do expect a pretty sharp N turn when it gets captured and phases but that on the 18z Gfs is overdone Imo. But before even getting into that it was a better run. Look at 96 hours v 12z I’ll take that improvement at 96 v the wonky stuff it does later. The question is was that pretty radical NW jump from va beach to Hagerstown correct. I’d bet against it. Something like SE VA up the Chesapeake is more believable and that would have an enormous impact on the ground results in DC and Baltimore. Much less low level warm air surging in and provably would hold into snow a couple more hours which can mean 2-3 more inches. Plus sleet and dry slot v driving rain after. That’s not just a wag it’s based on the analogs to this setup where the upper low tracked similar to this and the surface low got into SE VA. The turn north was never that radical. The two 1994 storms for example, started in a similar spot and never got that far west. Both tracked up the bay or just east of it. Btw the first 94 storm had a much worse antecedent airmass so a similar track would yield better results. I think this has better antecedent conditions than the second 94 storm also. If that 96 hour Gfs plot is right I’d bet on a track through southeast VA then up the southern bay across northern DE and near Philly. That’s still west of ideal but that would avoid the spike into the 40s with heavy rain in the cities. Despite a slightly worse airmass that didn’t happen with the second 94 storm either. I got about 6” in western Fairfax county with a lot of sleet then a dryslot and temps stayed in the 30s. Didn’t lose any snow really. 9 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 19 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Not saying that it will happen or be the ultimate solution. But it's not like the GFS is doing something "non physical" here. If there's a shortwave on its heels phasing in at that time, it pulls the system NW as we see. @psuhoffman and others have hammered that point several times. See my post above 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: There have to be some members that follow the weakness though, from Greenville up over Philly looks like where it probably wanted to end up. Dynamics as it stacks likely cause interference of convective nature out closer to where the surface low ended up this run. That’s the track I expected too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: \ Approximate track of the surface low from 99-108. Would be a unique storm track for sure. Sure, we'll be on the west side of the eye but hard to imagine that the hurricane-force winds will still be causing trouble by the time it gets to DC. (Crap, I see I stopped changing my wall calendar five months ago.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 That was a solid adjustment from the GFS after gleaning over it. Ignore the developed ptype algorithm maps for the time being. Soundings tell the story and climo wise we're beginning to see how this would usually shape up. The wall of snow is still well within reason. I-81 corridor still favored, but the metros will not get shutout. I love the cold antecedent airmass leading in too. I have no changes to what I've made previously. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: \ Approximate track of the surface low from 99-108. Would be a unique storm track for sure. History of similar synoptic situations says something like this is more likely 14 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB 18Z GEFS. Yes I am tired. Been posting since early am and I worked today… 4 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Someone in the proximity of this sounding would be ripping prior to changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: See my post above Thank you...very good explanation. I don't know much about the specific 1994 storms you mentioned (wasn't in the area at the time), but I see what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: History of similar synoptic situations says something like this is more likely Snocane Isabel track. I love these tropical winter storms 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: EB 28Z GEFS. Yes I am tired. Been posting since early am and I worked today… Solidly better percentages for the I-95 area. It has me getting an 80-90 percent of more than 3 inches of snow, like the confidence in that. Thanks for the maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, H2O said: Snocane Isabel track. I love these tropical winter storms That means we get snownadoes, no other option. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Pretty weenieish GEFS run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yep, cluster off coast, cluster inside. Double Barrell Low Look? Maybe causing model confusion with surface lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Thats a really classic looking jet structure. : 6 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 26 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: \ Approximate track of the surface low from 99-108. Would be a unique storm track for sure. You know that left turn really reminds me of _____ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wrt the NW track. It can happen and I do expect a pretty sharp N turn when it gets captured and phases but that on the 18z Gfs is overdone Imo. But before even getting into that it was a better run. Look at 96 hours v 12z I’ll take that improvement at 96 v the wonky stuff it does later. The question is was that pretty radical NW jump from va beach to Hagerstown correct. I’d bet against it. Something like SE VA up the Chesapeake is more believable and that would have an enormous impact on the ground results in DC and Baltimore. Much less low level warm air surging in and provably would hold into snow a couple more hours which can mean 2-3 more inches. Plus sleet and dry slot v driving rain after. That’s not just a wag it’s based on the analogs to this setup where the upper low tracked similar to this and the surface low got into SE VA. The turn north was never that radical. The two 1994 storms for example, started in a similar spot and never got that far west. Both tracked up the bay or just east of it. Btw the first 94 storm had a much worse antecedent airmass so a similar track would yield better results. I think this has better antecedent conditions than the second 94 storm also. If that 96 hour Gfs plot is right I’d bet on a track through southeast VA then up the southern bay across northern DE and near Philly. That’s still west of ideal but that would avoid the spike into the 40s with heavy rain in the cities. Despite a slightly worse airmass that didn’t happen with the second 94 storm either. I got about 6” in western Fairfax county with a lot of sleet then a dryslot and temps stayed in the 30s. Didn’t lose any snow really. Joe B keeps saying March, 1994 is an analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, H2O said: Snocane Isabel track. I love these tropical winter storms Was going to say...looks very much like the Hurricane Isabel track in 2003!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: History of similar synoptic situations says something like this is more likely GEFS supports that in all honesty. I cant ever remember a track like the GFS is spitting out. The GEFS would be a classic bomb for just about everyone in here. Except the Eastern Shore folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Thats a really classic looking jet structure. : I am glad you are in a better mood!!!! Never give up!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS. Yes I am tired. Been posting since early am and I worked today… Why all the monster hits in Southwest VA and NC in the ensembles but none up our way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 19 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I think we’ve seen just about all the possibilities so will be time to replay all the possible outcomes thru Friday. The cold high will again be the determinant and we need about 30.20+ to keep the low from moving due north . 30.00 at game time won’t do it. To be fair over the last 36 hours all the solutions among the more reliable globals have been between a coastal hugger and an inside runner. They all track the low somewhere through central or eastern NC and at our latitude between the Delmarva and Dulles. For 120 hours away that’s remarkably narrow goalposts imo. It’s just that we’re on a razors edge between a significant snowstorm or something less impactful. But 30 years ago we likely would be looking at goalposts between Indiana and Bermuda for the track at 5 days out! We’re now talking about details at day 5 we couldn’t imagine at day 2 when I first got into this game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I am glad you are in a better mood!!!! Never give up!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: GEFS supports that in all honesty. I cant ever remember a track like the GFS is spitting out. The GEFS would be a classic bomb for just about everyone in here. Except the Eastern Shore folks. Us in five hours: “whoa - never seen a jump from the nc/sc border to Bismarck before!” 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Joe B keeps saying March, 1994 is an analog. Come on people, gotta include a legend 9 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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