jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Accuracy will be higher at shorter time leads, so the fact that GFS at 72-84 seems to be an improvement over where it was at 12z is encouraging. What happens when the storm gets to 100+ hours is still within the envelope of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Upslope signal on that GFS run is legit for the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z stopped the bleeding, 18z stepped in the right direction. That's all that's worth taking from that. 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except the kicker phases and tugs the now NNW. How often is a low that tracks over Mertle Beach and Wilmington NC “too far west”. I’m starting to really rethink the order of what’s most important. Honestly it’s like 90% the phasing with the enegy behind. If the storms going to cut NNW due to that it really doesn’t matter what’s going on before that. Although the further SE start does give us a few more hours in the cold sector which matters when it’s snowing 1-2”/hr. Plus makes for an earlier occlusion which will limit the warm air intrusion west of the track. But to get a “clean” storm and a track east of the bay we really need a delayed phase or slower phase with the backside energy. That piece is going to be the wild card here. As far as I can tell it’s coming from a lobe sitting south of the Aleutians right now. This piece and it’s timing is so critical and I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that the modeling and the real time aspects of that piece are gonna change over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ladies and Gentlemen I present to you: The best model America can buy! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except the kicker phases and tugs the now NNW. How often is a low that tracks over Mertle Beach and Wilmington NC “too far west”. I’m starting to really rethink the order of what’s most important. Honestly it’s like 90% the phasing with the enegy behind. If the storms going to cut NNW due to that it really doesn’t matter what’s going on before that. Although the further SE start does give us a few more hours in the cold sector which matters when it’s snowing 1-2”/hr. Plus makes for an earlier occlusion which will limit the warm air intrusion west of the track. But to get a “clean” storm and a track east of the bay we really need a delayed phase or slower phase with the backside energy. Certainly not expecting an "all clean" snow event at this point. But it sure would be nice to avoid spiking temperatures and a deluge after a good thump as much as possible! I'd rather have a transition to sleet/ice, or a dry slot where we don't have temps shoot up well into the 40s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 12z stopped the bleeding, 18z stepped in the right direction. That's all that's worth taking from that. this 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: 12z stopped the bleeding, 18z stepped in the right direction. That's all that's worth taking from that. By the time I get back from my 3 day golf trip in Orlando....it will be full mayhem in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Ladies and Gentlemen I present to you: The best model America can buy! You talking about the one that is just coming off a 2 for 2 steak? That one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Western PW could make out big time over Eastern PW....looks like a county devider right now I think you might be right. But man that 18z evolution. Near vacapes to PA. Not sure what to think but h5 was better. My advice is get stocked on booze. That never fails. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Western PW could make out big time over Eastern PW....looks like a county devider right now I 100% expect this to be the usual PWC split. Haymarket gets 2x over Dale City and Woodbridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Solution Man said: By the time I get back from my 3 day golf trip in Orlando....it will be full mayhem in here Sure hope your flight isn’t delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Sure hope your flight isn’t delayed Land Saturday night at Dulles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: You talking about the one that is just coming off a 2 for 2 steak? That one? Probably a 1/2 for the northern part of the forum, but has a low ever taken that track? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: I 100% expect this to be the usual PWC split. Haymarket gets 2x over Dale City and Woodbridge Route 28. The great divide…66 is the other one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This run is probably the start of a gradual evolution of guidance towards a blockbuster event of historic proportions. More cold air involved, better track. Have a close look at the speed of the occlusion around hours 108-114. 2 1 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Probably a 1/2 for the northern part of the forum, but has a low ever taken that track? Not saying that it will happen or be the ultimate solution. But it's not like the GFS is doing something "non physical" here. If there's a shortwave on its heels phasing in at that time, it pulls the system NW as we see. @psuhoffman and others have hammered that point several times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Probably a 1/2 for the northern part of the forum, but has a low ever taken that track? I’m sure everything has happened at one time. I remember a few years ago going on and on about how a low won’t run the apps even with the models showing exactly that. I was confident it wouldn’t happen because it almost never does. Guess what happened? It ran right up them like it was hiking the Appalachian Trail. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Roger Smith said: This run is probably the start of a gradual evolution of guidance towards a blockbuster event of historic proportions. More cold air involved, better track. Have a close look at the speed of the occlusion around hours 108-114. Get your venmo ready 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: This run is probably the start of a gradual evolution of guidance towards a blockbuster event of historic proportions. More cold air involved, better track. Have a close look at the speed of the occlusion around hours 108-114. I think this is correct. I’m going with this until it’s not true. 5 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m sure everything has happened at one time. I remember a few years ago going on and on about how a low won’t run the apps even with the models showing exactly that. I was confident it wouldn’t happen because it almost never does. Guess what happened? It ran right up them like it was hiking the Appalachian Trail. Yep, I remember that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Still can’t buy nc/va state line on the coast to se pa my instincts are screaming that this bomb adjusts East and hugs the coast. Top of the bay gets a thump, changeover, dryslot drizzle and the a consolation inch or two backside 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 \ Approximate track of the surface low from 99-108. Would be a unique storm track for sure. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The apparent “jump” west is somewhat of an artifact of where the graphics routine plots an L. What’s happening physically is the storm is occluding and becoming vertically stacked as it moves through VA. 11 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ensembles are east from all I hear! I have not looked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 With so much talk about snow and mixing line, how do the winds look for this storm for the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: With so much talk about snow and mixing line, how do the winds look for this storm for the region? If you’re east of the fall line, from the southeast at 90 mph 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: \ Approximate track of the surface low from 99-108. Would be a unique storm track for sure. There have to be some members that follow the weakness though, from Greenville up over Philly looks like where it probably wanted to end up. Dynamics as it stacks likely cause interference of convective nature out closer to where the surface low ended up this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It will only get better from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z GEFS Ensembles. Stolen from New York City thread. Looks much better! 10 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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