dsnowman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Coastal hugger. Much better than 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Now is the time we wish we had a kicker closing in. Just not Chris Blewitt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looked better.. then it didn't. LOL! Maybe it is just step one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I thought he went out to Elko Nevada. Maybe I’m thinking of someone else. He came to LWX from Elko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Low heads to HGR higher totals south of DC are largely due to a deathband this run has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Kinda weird how it looks like it's going to hug the coast or at least go over the Delmarva and instead of going north or northeast it actually seems to jump northwest and go over us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ends up a tick farther W. Thats unpossible 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Low from near VA beach to Hagerstown? Ok then lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Low heads straight up to Harrisburg PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Looked better.. then it didn't. LOL! Maybe it is just step one Step 1 is actually admitting you have a problem. Step 2 is it looked a little better in the right direction (maybe?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 That storm hit mach speed all of a sudden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 That was some wild stuff right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The key this run and 18z is weaker less organized sw that gains more longitude before getting tugged N. Not concerned with where the surface low ends up....im not sure that is correct. Eta: willing to bet 0z the surface corrects itself with a move E 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Tornado watches hoisted. 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It digs a bit harder and is mostly coastal energy now, inland center much reduced, 500 mb low somewhat further southeast. If this is a start to a trend then it could look really good eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Low heads straight up to Harrisburg PA 1 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 That sw from the nw comes barreling in like a rocket 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 500 track shifted east which is a good thing. Took it over OH at 12z. Now its over western VA/WV. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I prefer the 12z to the 18z; both have roughly the same snow but 18z has more rain over the corridor 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That sw from the ne comes barreling in like a rocket I’m going to think the next run won’t look like that. Yeah why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, rjvanals said: I prefer the 12z to the 18z; both have roughly the same snow but 18z has more rain over the corridor Probably wiser to pay more attention to the 500mb changes at this range and not so much r/s lines and amounts just yet. We saw some positive things all around at 18z. Now we rest up for Dr No in a couple hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Now is the time we wish we had a kicker closing in. Except the kicker phases and tugs the now NNW. How often is a low that tracks over Mertle Beach and Wilmington NC “too far west”. I’m starting to really rethink the order of what’s most important. Honestly it’s like 90% the phasing with the enegy behind. If the storms going to cut NNW due to that it really doesn’t matter what’s going on before that. Although the further SE start does give us a few more hours in the cold sector which matters when it’s snowing 1-2”/hr. Plus makes for an earlier occlusion which will limit the warm air intrusion west of the track. But to get a “clean” storm and a track east of the bay we really need a delayed phase or slower phase with the backside energy. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Probably wiser to pay more attention to the 500mb changes at this range and not so much r/s lines and amounts just yet. We saw some positive things all around at 18z. Now we rest up for Dr No in a couple hours. This is going to be a fun storm for PWC, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Low heads straight up to Harrisburg PA Ahh, the classic "Harrisburg Hauler" track! 3 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Wonderdog said: This is going to be a fun storm for PWC, I believe. Western PW could make out big time over Eastern PW....looks like a county devider right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Accuracy will be higher at shorter time leads, so the fact that GFS at 72-84 seems to be an improvement over where it was at 12z is encouraging. What happens when the storm gets to 100+ hours is still within the envelope of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Upslope signal on that GFS run is legit for the mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z stopped the bleeding, 18z stepped in the right direction. That's all that's worth taking from that. 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except the kicker phases and tugs the now NNW. How often is a low that tracks over Mertle Beach and Wilmington NC “too far west”. I’m starting to really rethink the order of what’s most important. Honestly it’s like 90% the phasing with the enegy behind. If the storms going to cut NNW due to that it really doesn’t matter what’s going on before that. Although the further SE start does give us a few more hours in the cold sector which matters when it’s snowing 1-2”/hr. Plus makes for an earlier occlusion which will limit the warm air intrusion west of the track. But to get a “clean” storm and a track east of the bay we really need a delayed phase or slower phase with the backside energy. That piece is going to be the wild card here. As far as I can tell it’s coming from a lobe sitting south of the Aleutians right now. This piece and it’s timing is so critical and I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that the modeling and the real time aspects of that piece are gonna change over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ladies and Gentlemen I present to you: The best model America can buy! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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