mattie g Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: It was briefly closed at 81... but opened back up again at 84 There's that "connection streak" that WxUSAF mentioned earlier today. It seems more potent (?) and a little "squashier" than at the same time in the 12z run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That week still doesnt break 2016 for me. Of course we got kind of screwed with the second noreaster out here (Only 4-6). I know a lot of you like multiple events. And I do as well. But I dont think I will ever see 40 inches from a single storm again in my lifetime. I can't blame you. I think most of us consider a HECS to be anything over 20", but to get twice as much is just ungodly. Not many people outside a mountain or LES snow belt will ever see a 40" storm in their backyard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, yoda said: It was briefly closed at 81... but opened back up again at 84 More Miller A'ish on that look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The 18z NAM appears to be a step in the right direction at 500. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: I can't blame you. I think most of us consider a HECS to be anything over 20", but to get twice as much is just ungodly. Not many people outside a mountain or LES snow belt will ever see a 40" storm in their backyard. I lived along the divide in the rockies for 7 years and the largest 24 hour snowfall I can remember is 35" and it happened around Memorial Day weekend of all times. No snow below 10k' but most of my county was above that. Generally speaking, 24" in 24 hours is a massive single storm. However, storm cycles can dump 6-12" every day for 10 days so there's a big difference but the mid atl and NE get hit with very special snowstorms. Geography is powerful. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The 18z NAM appears to be a step in the right direction at 500. Agreed. Anybody also thinking it has more of a Miller A look to it up top than what we’ve been seeing? Interested to see how that evolves over subsequent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Guys come on, its the long range NAM. Might as well use woolly caterpillars to predict the snow. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 ICON is looking decent, probably a beatdown just west of 95. Low just north of Wilmington at 102 Eh, it started tucking too quick west after 102. Still good front end snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The 18z NAM appears to be a step in the right direction at 500. All we can really ask for 5 days out. I know many love to see those pretty pink colors on snow maps over our backyards - even on 5+ day out model runs - but I’d actually be more concerned if models were showing an area wide jack at this point because we know things will very likely shift between now and storm time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Guys come on, its the long range NAM. Might as well use woolly caterpillars to predict the snow. Something about a blind squirrel and a nut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 NAM has low teens here Saturday night with dew points around 0. GFS keeps a slight northerly component to the sfc winds ahead of the sfc low on Sunday and has a known bias for scouring out low-level cold air too quickly. I don't disagree at all that we'll be able to torch above the ground, taking the current track verbatim, but the surface cold air is not going to give up easily at all. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks ICON ish wrt how it wants to link a bit of the energy in the plains with the stj energy. Not sure honestly what it would mean. Less of a closed low for longer would be better, so I guess there are some positives just glancing at where it may head after. someone fire up the DGEX.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Whoever is JUST west of the mix / snow line come storm day is going to be quite happy. This has great banding written all over it and the moisture feed is going to be profound upstairs. Some models printing 1-2” qpf. Just a matter of where that fall line sets up I’d honestly take a nice 4-6” thump before a dry slot or sleet bomb in a heart beat, but I’m certainly rooting for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_snow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just wanted to say as a lurker: I have no idea what any of you are talking about, but I love the hype. 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, high risk said: NAM has low teens here Saturday night with dew points around 0. GFS keeps a slight northerly component to the sfc winds ahead of the sfc low on Sunday and has a known bias for scouring out low-level cold air too quickly. I don't disagree at all that we'll be able to torch above the ground, taking the current track verbatim, but the surface cold air is not going to give up easily at all. Agreed. Warm layer/sleet line typically scoots in quicker than models but the boundary layer will be very cold and dense for sure. Nice part about a crappy track in Jan as opposed to Dec or Mar 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, jon_snow said: Just wanted to say as a lurker: I have no idea what any of you are talking about, but I love the hype. You're probably more blessed that you don't know...trust me, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 29 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Getting some purple on the board. Now we're getting somewhere.. Holy crap they finally used the bottom right corner of the matrix! Day made. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 21 minutes ago, Fozz said: I can't blame you. I think most of us consider a HECS to be anything over 20", but to get twice as much is just ungodly. Not many people outside a mountain or LES snow belt will ever see a 40" storm in their backyard. I got 34 inches from snowmaggedon. I’ll never see that again I don’t think. And I DEFINITELY won’t see three HECSes in a winter again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I was gone for almost a day. Seems like the ledge jumping finally stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 TWC has gone full weenie for my location. 13''-20'' 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: TWC has gone full weenie for my location. 13''-20'' Same here they got me at like 10-16'' that would be insane if it came to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 56 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: I found these maps for that storm. Can you tell me how to find maps like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 How much would the rain afterwards affect anything that falls? I’d imagine a lot, but maybe that isn’t modeled well even now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 43 minutes ago, yoda said: Not sure it makes much of a difference... but 12z NAM at 84 had a closed h5... 18z NAM at 78 does not (and does not at 84 either) It’s the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can you tell me how to find maps like that? He probably got them here http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro seems to be the best case scenario right now. Low end warning snow/sleet then dry for I-95 immediate suburbs, big storm US 15 west. EDIT: Give it a 50 mile east shift and everybody wind bigly. PLEASE drag the UHI boundary over me into Crystal City, so the rest of you can enjoy the s*** and surface by St. Patrick's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 RGEM is interesting. A good bit faster/further east with the mid level stuff but also much stronger. Cuts off earlier than would be preferred. Not smart enough to extrapolate that out to game time, but my rough guess is not an earth shattering improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He probably got them here http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ Holy shit thanks for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: TWC has gone full weenie for my location. 13''-20'' You realize TWC isn't in the accuracy business but more in the 'driving traffic' business. Gotta hype it up at all times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Same here they got me at like 10-16'' that would be insane if it came to fruition. How are things in the se forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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