Yeoman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Funny, we were told yesterday to ignore the JMA and ICON because they aren't in the same league as the other globals. Yet these 2 models show possibly the best outcomes of the bunch (location dependent). With that said, I am taking these and hugging the ever living p!ss out of them for now. Thank you. We're coming up on the 20th anniversary of JMAs last correct 5 day forecast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Updated LWX discussion: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Confidence increasing for a high impact winter storm Sunday into Monday... Saturday will be the "calm before the storm" as an anomalous region of high pressure (1040+ mb)resides over the northeast. This will prime the local region with abundant cold air with many locations struggling to get above freezing Saturday afternoon. For the Sunday into Monday system, confidence is continuing to increase in an impactful storm over at least parts of the region. It is too early to speculate snow, ice, or rainfall amounts over the local region as we are still 4-5 days from the event and there are a lot of moving parts in the atmosphere that will be refined over the coming days. Saturday evening, there will be an ULL near the southeast US while an area of surface low pressure moves north in the parent trough through the southeast US. Behind this system is another ULL advecting out of Canada into the great lakes Sunday into Monday morning. This is resulting in the increasing confidence for a high impact winter storm. The eventual track, magnitude of WAA at the surface and aloft, along with other dynamical aspects will determine where the cold air remains and where the heaviest QPF falls. All precip types are expected across the region with this storm. The further west you go in the CWA, the greater the chance for all frozen precip. Ensemble guidance, deterministic guidance, and the overall synoptic pattern a plowable snowfall for many at this juncture. Continue to monitor weather.gov/lwx/winter for the latest forecast. It should be noted that depending on the ultimate track of the storm there could be a dry slot moving somewhere over the region, creating locally lower QPF amounts. A lot will change with this system over the next 4-5 days. Aside from the potential hazardous travel conditions due to wintry precipitation, strong winds may also impact the mountains and metros. Coastal flooding may also become an issue depending on the ultimate track of the low pressure system. A period of upslope mountain snow showers is also likely Monday into Tuesday as the low moves northeast. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: What are projected temps following storm? Is our snow going to be gone 24 hours later? You're asking questions that either can't be answered or that can be derived by doing a little reading in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Snow falling with wildcard games on would be a great 3 day weekend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are a lot of similarities with the evolution but that 96 example started to amplify and got captured much later then guidance suggests here which is what saved the DC area relative to the cities further north. That’s why I said the weaker and further east we can get the initial SW before it gets captured and lifts the better. These can end well for DC but only if we can get the storm to the SE coast before it starts to lift north. Truth. I just see the make up with the strength of the LLJ and 700mb moisture flux can kind of combat the inevitable flip and keep the storm within reason for the DC metro area. A 3-6"/4-8" with more north and west is what I'm projecting right now, which is what happened in 1996. Evo is sort of similar, and it has higher grades for the 500 and 850mb height pattern which are good levels to look at with CIPS when it comes to similarities. Final forecast won't be out till Sunday with a first guess on Saturday. Still too much to parse to make a distinct call atm. One things for sure, it's not going to be lacking moisture. Have a theta-E advection regime most would enjoy during severe season. Talk about your influx of mid and boundary layer moisture. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 With so much model watching over the last couple of days, it feels like this storm is about to start tomorrow. But it is still 4-5 days away. There is plenty of time for adjustments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, real said: Where did the Low track in that storm in February 2007? DC got about 6 inches of snow, and then got pounded with insanely heavy sleet for hours. They were literally plowing the sleet off city streets... Didn't that storm come directly up the Bay? I found these maps for that storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Imgoinhungry said: 2 feet, followed by 10 inches. In less than a week. Damn. 2010 we had 30 inches followed by 14 inches in like 5 days. And that was following a 5-6-inch appetizer 48 hours earlier. Craziest week of weather in my life. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said: I found these maps for that storm. Yeah that was quite the sleet-fest. I was living in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC at the time, we got like 3-4" sleet, which froze into a block of ice after that storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: 2010 we had 30 inches followed by 14 inches in like 5 days. And that was following a 5-6-inch appetizer 48 hours earlier. Craziest week of weather in my life. That week weenies from DCA to PHL pulled triple 7s on weather slot machine several times. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 84 hour Nam with 1007 low over Mobile, AL 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: With so much model watching over the last couple of days, it feels like this storm is about to start tomorrow. But it is still 4-5 days away. There is plenty of time for adjustments. Especially 50-60-100 mile adjustments. We’re talking about numerous features at play, in which a small difference in strength / location of one or multiple of those features could make the difference between a 3-6” type storm and a 6-12” type storm - especially for the 95 corridor. We’ve seen this song and dance before. No guarantee of course this plays out exactly how we want, but I’d bet pretty solid money that the end result is different than what’s being depicted right now. 3-6” thump before a changeover in the major cities with 6+ NW and 6+ for all are both still very much on the table. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: 84 hour Nam with 1007 low over Mobile, AL What could go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Getting some purple on the board. Now we're getting somewhere.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: 2010 we had 30 inches followed by 14 inches in like 5 days. And that was following a 5-6-inch appetizer 48 hours earlier. Craziest week of weather in my life. right. Once in a lifetime window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: 2010 we had 30 inches followed by 14 inches in like 5 days. And that was following a 5-6-inch appetizer 48 hours earlier. Craziest week of weather in my life. 25 + 20 inches here. I can't imagine beating that stretch, ever. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 NAM at 78 but has a weaker sw and more of a connection to the stj and energy sitting off the southwest coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM at 78 but has a weaker sw and more of a connection to the stj and energy sitting off the southwest coast. but what does it mean Ralph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Fozz said: 25 + 20 inches here. I can't imagine beating that stretch, ever. That week still doesnt break 2016 for me. Of course we got kind of screwed with the second noreaster out here (Only 4-6). I know a lot of you like multiple events. And I do as well. But I dont think I will ever see 40 inches from a single storm again in my lifetime. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Not sure it makes much of a difference... but 12z NAM at 84 had a closed h5... 18z NAM at 78 does not (and does not at 84 either) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, DCAlexandria said: but what does it mean Ralph! Looks ICON ish wrt how it wants to link a bit of the energy in the plains with the stj energy. Not sure honestly what it would mean. Less of a closed low for longer would be better, so I guess there are some positives just glancing at where it may head after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It was briefly closed at 81... but opened back up again at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Not sure it makes much of a difference... but 12z NAM at 84 had a closed h5... 18z NAM at 78 does not (and does not at 84 either) Was noticing that as well... just no idea the impact or if it is even correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Not sure it makes much of a difference... but 12z NAM at 84 had a closed h5... 18z NAM at 78 does not (and does not at 84 either) See my post above....I think if we can delay the closed low and and phasing that only improves our chances for the sw to track east of the fall line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: It was briefly closed at 81... but opened back up again at 84 There's that "connection streak" that WxUSAF mentioned earlier today. It seems more potent (?) and a little "squashier" than at the same time in the 12z run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That week still doesnt break 2016 for me. Of course we got kind of screwed with the second noreaster out here (Only 4-6). I know a lot of you like multiple events. And I do as well. But I dont think I will ever see 40 inches from a single storm again in my lifetime. I can't blame you. I think most of us consider a HECS to be anything over 20", but to get twice as much is just ungodly. Not many people outside a mountain or LES snow belt will ever see a 40" storm in their backyard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, yoda said: It was briefly closed at 81... but opened back up again at 84 More Miller A'ish on that look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The 18z NAM appears to be a step in the right direction at 500. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: I can't blame you. I think most of us consider a HECS to be anything over 20", but to get twice as much is just ungodly. Not many people outside a mountain or LES snow belt will ever see a 40" storm in their backyard. I lived along the divide in the rockies for 7 years and the largest 24 hour snowfall I can remember is 35" and it happened around Memorial Day weekend of all times. No snow below 10k' but most of my county was above that. Generally speaking, 24" in 24 hours is a massive single storm. However, storm cycles can dump 6-12" every day for 10 days so there's a big difference but the mid atl and NE get hit with very special snowstorms. Geography is powerful. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts