mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: With a stacked, occluded low, you’ll get snow JUST west of the MSLP track. So yeah, wouldn’t take a lot to stay all frozen for the metros. As @psuhoffman said, the phasing of the energy on the back is really the key here. Delay that a little or have less phasing and it slides more NE instead of N. If people are bailing on this storm, they’re crazy. I want all snow, but I’d take a 4-6” thump (Hi RR!) all day and night. Feb 2014 was pretty good up here, didn't mix much, even the dry slot was short lived. Obviously not the same system, but it reminds me of that storm's setup. Thump, mix, dry slot, maybe backend love (No RR, not that kind of backend love). 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Feb 2014 was pretty good up here, didn't mix much, even the dry slot was short lived. Obviously not the same system, but it reminds me of that storm's setup. Thump, mix, dry slot, maybe backend love (No RR, not that kind of backend love). but the feb 2014 thump was like 13 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, catoctin wx said: Depending on what part of Frederick you are in. I sit at 300 ft and generally do very poorly on storms that are elevation dependent You gotta get a house in Sabillasville my friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: JMA FTMFW There's the money track. Give me that all day. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: You gotta get a house in Sabillasville my friend. Yup, Sabillasville/Blue Ridge Summit/Cascade are all at like what, 1000 feet? And I can say living up here a few months, they get more than Waynesboro and some of the surrounding spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Ji said: but the feb 2014 thump was like 13 inches lol I was in Reston for that storm. We got like 15 inches. Just now, Eskimo Joe said: There's the money track. Give me that all day. I still think that’s where we are headed. Give the friendly models a chance to catch on to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: fast movers in ninas...even when there is a -NAO....and apparently no daylight snow either Disgrace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 27 minutes ago, Ji said: that kind of phasing is typically hard to model that far out? Yes which is why giving up now is silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: JMA FTMFW Makes the most sense, it always boomerangs toward the JMA then away from it though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Yup, Sabillasville/Blue Ridge Summit/Cascade are all at like what, 1000 feet? And I can say living up here a few months, they get more than Waynesboro and some of the surrounding spots. Yup. Between 1,000 - 1,800 ASL. Camp David ASOS is ~1,900 ASOS and Site R is ~900. Those two ASOS's are good for discerning minute warm/dry layers during events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: JMA FTMFW Hey it got Feb. 11-12, 2006 correct before other models caught on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 We're at about 96 hours out from onset, somewhat more clarity today but the money zone is w of 15 to the 81 folks with MRB, OKV looking like the local jackpot zone. Anyone west of rt/97 looks solid for a 6" snowfall at this juncture I'd say from the thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Between 1,000 - 1,800 ASL. Camp David ASOS is ~1,900 ASOS and Site R is ~900. Those two ASOS's are good for discerning minute warm/dry layers during events. Where can we pull Camp David nowadays (used to be RSP)? and Site R? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: You gotta get a house in Sabillasville my friend. I prefer civilization lol. Middletown / Myersville is the place to be around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That front end thump on both the GFS and Euro are something else. This is giving me very 2/2014 vibes right now. That precip will come in like a wall. With the mid-level ascent depicted, 1-2"/hr wouldn't just be a possibility, it would be a certainty. Would certainly be fun to watch come down in the first part of the storm. Yeah. I think we can get to 4-6" in a lot of areas with around 6 hours before the flip. Like low-end warning criteria that someone pointed out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 28 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Not perfect matches, obviously, but that negative tilt over the southern plains to a bowling ball over DC is a good match for Jan. 2011 commuteaggedon. I was looking at that analog this morning. 2 notable differences I found (one good one bad) 2011 had a much worse antecedent airmass in front of it (good here) but there is a lot more energy diving in behind this time which should mean a sharper trough and potentially more northward latitude gain. But I’ve not given up on a less amplified and corresponding more southeast solution yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ji said: JMA FTMFW Funny, we were told yesterday to ignore the JMA and ICON because they aren't in the same league as the other globals. Yet these 2 models show possibly the best outcomes of the bunch (location dependent). With that said, I am taking these and hugging the ever living p!ss out of them for now. Thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, catoctin wx said: I prefer civilization lol. Middletown / Myersville is the place to be around here Second that part haha, I love the Middletown/Myersville area, but you really aren't that far from some "commerce" in Sabillasville area lol. Waynesboro has quite a bit and is <20 mins, HGR 25 mins. Also cheaper to live up outside in the border areas vs M/M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 41 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’d say too early for me to wager amounts but an inland track like the models are showing would hit Deep Creek pretty good with frozen. Depending on the track of the 500 and 850 lows, it could get us in the warm sector where we sleet but again, those details need to be worked out. The upslope with this strong of a system would also hit us good as the LP heads N or NE from our latitude. It looks to be a high impact event out there as of now. I'm oiling up my jebman shovels as we speak. Latest euro didn't have that warm area that GFS was showing. I'm assuming that happens from the primary low bringing up warm air prior to the coastal taking over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Yup, Sabillasville/Blue Ridge Summit/Cascade are all at like what, 1000 feet? And I can say living up here a few months, they get more than Waynesboro and some of the surrounding spots. Been is Smithsburg for over 20 years and yes for sure all those areas do really well. Usually Blue Ridge/ cascade is about 5 degrees cooler than me in Smithsburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Where can we pull Camp David nowadays (used to be RSP)? and Site R? Camp David (KRSP) METAR: https://aviationweather.gov/adds/tafs/?station_ids=KRSP&std_trans=translated&submit_both=Get+TAFs+and+METARs Site R (XIF) METAR: https://aviationweather.gov/adds/tafs/?station_ids=XIF&std_trans=translated&submit_both=Get+TAFs+and+METARs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s too early to pin details but if this takes a track like the consensus now Oakland should get hit pretty good. Places west of the Allegheny Ridges could get warm if the primary holds too long. I’ve seen that drive a warm layer up into SW PA. But typically the upslope (pretty much any wind direction is upslope along the Allegheny front) saves the higher elevations from that. Appreciate the info, thanks! Learning more and more from listening to you experts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ji said: but the feb 2014 thump was like 13 inches lol It wasn’t supposed to be when it was 100 hours away though. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It wasn’t supposed to be when it was 100 hours away though. Correct! It wasn't until the day or two before it really ramped up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoSailer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Total precip that falls before 850s spike at DCA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 27 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: LOL!!!!! I Copied the map.. updated the key and pasted the copied map without the key! Lol try to match the legend with that map. @mappy ain’t gonna give this a stamp of approval lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Perhaps not surprisingly the EPS jogged west a bit from 6z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Let's all just hope the shift east starts tonight we all don't need much to get a Ton of snow in the metro. Just need 60 miles east or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Warmest EPS panel. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, mdhokie said: I'm oiling up my jebman shovels as we speak. Latest euro didn't have that warm area that GFS was showing. I'm assuming that happens from the primary low bringing up warm air prior to the coastal taking over? That Euro run was perfect for us. 500/850/SLP all staying east helped and Euro is basically a Miller A vs GFS which looked more Miller B with a secondary LP in the OH valley which causes us to mix for a period of time before the transfer. These finer details will be worked out over the next few days but I’m rooting for that Euro 12z, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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