Warm Nose Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro seems to be the best case scenario right now. Low end warning snow/sleet then dry for I-95 immediate suburbs, big storm US 15 west. EDIT: Give it a 50 mile east shift and everybody wind bigly. I'd say wrap that up now for me, but climo wins out IMBY despite being at 800'. Most likely true dividing line is BR - East of that you mix/rain to varying degrees. West, you get the P word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 But holy snow Batman, the surface features across these models at 84 hours are so classic. I think this is gonna be a good thump at the least. If we go mixed or rain so what, it’ll be a glacier a few hours later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: But holy snow Batman, the surface features across these models at 84 hours are so classic. I think this is gonna be a good thump at the least. If we go mixed or rain so what, it’ll be a glacier a few hours later. I'm in a pretty good spot, but you're in a REALLY good spot for this one it appears. Lots of models showing 12-20" numbers over your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But holy snow Batman, the surface features across these models at 84 hours are so classic. I think this is gonna be a good thump at the least. If we go mixed or rain so what, it’ll be a glacier a few hours later. highs are now trending warmer post storm...possibly low 40s MLK day and Tuesday. There doesn't seem to be some big post storm discharge of cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks like about .7-.8qpf of snow in a ~6 hr thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Same, I'm about 8 miles west of 15 up in CV. I don't mind it nudging 50 miles east. Oh you’re prob in a bit of a better spot than me. My elevation isn’t all that great (around 350’) but it climbs real quick from here. It’s fun using the compass as I drive up to gambrill. I feel like the valley between catoctin and Hagerstown would do pretty well. Either way, looks like a decent cad setup to start for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Remember a few days ago when suppression was the biggest fear when slp was tracking through Indianopolis? Always remember history because it repeats. Obviously now it's entirely different but still, I was never once worried about a whiff south when this thing showed up. My concern was no storm at all so that was avoided at least for now. I'd be good with a deep closed 500mb low tracking overhead. Rare occurrence so again, it seems "off" but I say bring it. Stormier the better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, 87storms said: Oh you’re prob in a bit of a better spot than me. My elevation isn’t all that great (around 350’) but it climbs real quick from here. It’s fun using the compass as I drive up to gambrill. I feel like the valley between catoctin and Hagerstown would do pretty well. Either way, looks like a decent cad setup to start for everyone. Yea I can see liberty from my house on the side of the mountain there, sitting at about 900' or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But holy snow Batman, the surface features across these models at 84 hours are so classic. I think this is gonna be a good thump at the least. If we go mixed or rain so what, it’ll be a glacier a few hours later. Sweating the rain/snow line is part of the deal with this type of setup, alas. That's why I loved last Monday so much. Didn't have to be glued to a precip-type radar the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Euro has the onset of snow significantly later than gfs, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Is there a key to this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 There's a bit of a trowal signature on the Euro when looking at the 850-700mb frontogen pattern. I would say right now it's just barely in MD and more into PA, but watch for that backend stuff. That will not be something resolved game time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: highs are now trending warmer post storm...possibly low 40s MLK day and Tuesday. There doesn't seem to be some big post storm discharge of cold air. Bet that will turn out wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said: Euro has the onset of snow significantly later than gfs, yes? GFS has onset ~1pm for DC, Euro ~6pm for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Love me some maps with no legend. For all I know this is a map showing when leaf out occurs in the spring. Nice colors for that 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Yea I can see liberty from my house on the side of the mountain there, sitting at about 900' or so. That’s clutch. I gained latitude from Bethesda but probably still in the delayed but not denied mix zone lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Love me some maps with no legend. For all I know this is a map showing when leaf out occurs in the spring. Nice colors for that so basically it says the BR mountains are nowhere near Winchester 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 the worst part is of the euro run is the complete boredom thats lurking after this dump thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 LOL!!!!! I Copied the map.. updated the key and pasted the copied map without the key! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: the worst part is of the euro run is the complete boredom thats lurking after this dump thump We're in that boredom between the dump of last weeks 2 events, didn't last too long but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: That’s clutch. I gained latitude from Bethesda but probably still in the delayed but not denied mix zone lol. Depending on what part of Frederick you are in. I sit at 300 ft and generally do very poorly on storms that are elevation dependent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: so basically it says the BR mountains are nowhere near Winchester But much closer to Winchester than Cleveland!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 That front end thump on both the GFS and Euro are something else. This is giving me very 2/2014 vibes right now. That precip will come in like a wall. With the mid-level ascent depicted, 1-2"/hr wouldn't just be a possibility, it would be a certainty. Would certainly be fun to watch come down in the first part of the storm. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 JMA FTMFW 9 5 12 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, rjvanals said: GFS has onset ~1pm for DC, Euro ~6pm for DC thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The year of the 5 hour snowstorms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That front end thump on both the GFS and Euro are something else. This is giving me very 2/2014 vibes right now. That precip will come in like a wall. With the mid-level ascent depicted, 1-2"/hr wouldn't just be a possibility, it would be a certainty. Would certainly be fun to watch come down in the first part of the storm. We love when it comes from the S/SW like a total wall. Nothing better, complete mass of yellows and oranges. Always has a chance to overperform too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Yeoman said: The year of the 5 hour snowstorms fast movers in ninas...even when there is a -NAO....and apparently no daylight snow either 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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