87storms Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Same, I'm about 8 miles west of 15 up in CV. I don't mind it nudging 50 miles east. Oh you’re prob in a bit of a better spot than me. My elevation isn’t all that great (around 350’) but it climbs real quick from here. It’s fun using the compass as I drive up to gambrill. I feel like the valley between catoctin and Hagerstown would do pretty well. Either way, looks like a decent cad setup to start for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Remember a few days ago when suppression was the biggest fear when slp was tracking through Indianopolis? Always remember history because it repeats. Obviously now it's entirely different but still, I was never once worried about a whiff south when this thing showed up. My concern was no storm at all so that was avoided at least for now. I'd be good with a deep closed 500mb low tracking overhead. Rare occurrence so again, it seems "off" but I say bring it. Stormier the better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, 87storms said: Oh you’re prob in a bit of a better spot than me. My elevation isn’t all that great (around 350’) but it climbs real quick from here. It’s fun using the compass as I drive up to gambrill. I feel like the valley between catoctin and Hagerstown would do pretty well. Either way, looks like a decent cad setup to start for everyone. Yea I can see liberty from my house on the side of the mountain there, sitting at about 900' or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But holy snow Batman, the surface features across these models at 84 hours are so classic. I think this is gonna be a good thump at the least. If we go mixed or rain so what, it’ll be a glacier a few hours later. Sweating the rain/snow line is part of the deal with this type of setup, alas. That's why I loved last Monday so much. Didn't have to be glued to a precip-type radar the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Euro has the onset of snow significantly later than gfs, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Is there a key to this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 There's a bit of a trowal signature on the Euro when looking at the 850-700mb frontogen pattern. I would say right now it's just barely in MD and more into PA, but watch for that backend stuff. That will not be something resolved game time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: highs are now trending warmer post storm...possibly low 40s MLK day and Tuesday. There doesn't seem to be some big post storm discharge of cold air. Bet that will turn out wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said: Euro has the onset of snow significantly later than gfs, yes? GFS has onset ~1pm for DC, Euro ~6pm for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Love me some maps with no legend. For all I know this is a map showing when leaf out occurs in the spring. Nice colors for that 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Yea I can see liberty from my house on the side of the mountain there, sitting at about 900' or so. That’s clutch. I gained latitude from Bethesda but probably still in the delayed but not denied mix zone lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Love me some maps with no legend. For all I know this is a map showing when leaf out occurs in the spring. Nice colors for that so basically it says the BR mountains are nowhere near Winchester 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 the worst part is of the euro run is the complete boredom thats lurking after this dump thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 LOL!!!!! I Copied the map.. updated the key and pasted the copied map without the key! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: the worst part is of the euro run is the complete boredom thats lurking after this dump thump We're in that boredom between the dump of last weeks 2 events, didn't last too long but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: That’s clutch. I gained latitude from Bethesda but probably still in the delayed but not denied mix zone lol. Depending on what part of Frederick you are in. I sit at 300 ft and generally do very poorly on storms that are elevation dependent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: so basically it says the BR mountains are nowhere near Winchester But much closer to Winchester than Cleveland!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 That front end thump on both the GFS and Euro are something else. This is giving me very 2/2014 vibes right now. That precip will come in like a wall. With the mid-level ascent depicted, 1-2"/hr wouldn't just be a possibility, it would be a certainty. Would certainly be fun to watch come down in the first part of the storm. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 JMA FTMFW 9 5 12 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, rjvanals said: GFS has onset ~1pm for DC, Euro ~6pm for DC thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The year of the 5 hour snowstorms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That front end thump on both the GFS and Euro are something else. This is giving me very 2/2014 vibes right now. That precip will come in like a wall. With the mid-level ascent depicted, 1-2"/hr wouldn't just be a possibility, it would be a certainty. Would certainly be fun to watch come down in the first part of the storm. We love when it comes from the S/SW like a total wall. Nothing better, complete mass of yellows and oranges. Always has a chance to overperform too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Yeoman said: The year of the 5 hour snowstorms fast movers in ninas...even when there is a -NAO....and apparently no daylight snow either 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: With a stacked, occluded low, you’ll get snow JUST west of the MSLP track. So yeah, wouldn’t take a lot to stay all frozen for the metros. As @psuhoffman said, the phasing of the energy on the back is really the key here. Delay that a little or have less phasing and it slides more NE instead of N. If people are bailing on this storm, they’re crazy. I want all snow, but I’d take a 4-6” thump (Hi RR!) all day and night. Feb 2014 was pretty good up here, didn't mix much, even the dry slot was short lived. Obviously not the same system, but it reminds me of that storm's setup. Thump, mix, dry slot, maybe backend love (No RR, not that kind of backend love). 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Feb 2014 was pretty good up here, didn't mix much, even the dry slot was short lived. Obviously not the same system, but it reminds me of that storm's setup. Thump, mix, dry slot, maybe backend love (No RR, not that kind of backend love). but the feb 2014 thump was like 13 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, catoctin wx said: Depending on what part of Frederick you are in. I sit at 300 ft and generally do very poorly on storms that are elevation dependent You gotta get a house in Sabillasville my friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: JMA FTMFW There's the money track. Give me that all day. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: You gotta get a house in Sabillasville my friend. Yup, Sabillasville/Blue Ridge Summit/Cascade are all at like what, 1000 feet? And I can say living up here a few months, they get more than Waynesboro and some of the surrounding spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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