psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, mdhokie said: This is potentially my first big storm out west (missed dec'20). What are we looking for as good/bad? I see there is a sharp cutoff in amounts as you head west into north wva, does warm sector form out there? How much you thinking for the mountains? It’s too early to pin details but if this takes a track like the consensus now Oakland should get hit pretty good. Places west of the Allegheny Ridges could get warm if the primary holds too long. I’ve seen that drive a warm layer up into SW PA. But typically the upslope (pretty much any wind direction is upslope along the Allegheny front) saves the higher elevations from that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Some of these solutions are really wet, and we still have time to trend for a perfect scenario. It's going to be hard to rain I-95 and NW with -NAO. Storms for the last 10-20 years have been maxing NW of I-95, I wouldn't expect an Apps track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Um...OK.. 850s below 0 at DCA at 120 with the SLP just east... huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Euro looks like the GFS yet again, slightly east in its evolution overall at h5 and low track. Ends up going right up the bay over Baltimore. The individual frames and maps I'll leave to the main folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Um...OK.. 850s below 0 at DCA at 120 with the SLP just east... huh? might we what PSU explained about the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhode Islander in Balto Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: whoa! That's VERY different from Parkville. Good luck up there and enjoy! Jealous. Funny, I'll be in Moncton, NB Spending a year in British Columbia starting this summer before building a house in NB. I'll be sure to pop in now and again and share some wicked Canadian weather! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Mod snow by 108 into DC, still heavy snow throughout VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Um...OK.. 850s below 0 at DCA at 120 with the SLP just east... huh? loses them at 114 though, but it's close. Would take a jog ~50mi east, maybe less. way gone at 117, that's harder to fix lmao. but as mentioned, fine at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Um...OK.. 850s below 0 at DCA at 120 with the SLP just east... huh? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, LP08 said: Mod snow by 108 into DC, still heavy snow throughout VA. Looks like DCA is still snow at 114... but barley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB 12Z EURO 108 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 114, Mix line pushing west of 95. LP over Richmond. NW VA crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 500 low goes over us, rather than over Cleveland, so that's probably good. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 hours of snow on the Euro. I mean...beggars and all.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Euro also has more phasing with the energy on the backside. That’s probably the worst part. As others have said if you look at 84 hours and only at what’s happening in the southeast and northeast it looks great. What really goes wrong after is what happens up over the Midwest with that energy diving in and phasing. That’s why this suddenly pulls due north v taking a more typical northeast trajectory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 31 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: In 96 i remember calling the weather hotline everyday starting 4 days before the storm (I was 9 lol). But day 4 was 1-3 inches. Day 3 was 3-6 inches. Day 2 was 6-12 inches. Day 1 was 18-24 lol. So here is hoping this one breaks that way! I might call that hotline right now I have this exact memory, and we’re the same age. I think I called that hotline like 18 times a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 114 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Pretty decent lift with the WAA snow and along the backside, I-81 and points west probably get slammed from this. If only we can get this like 50 - 60 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 120 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I guess the low occluded or dry slot over us? Cause 120 precip pretty much done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 21 minutes ago, mdhokie said: This is potentially my first big storm out west (missed dec'20). What are we looking for as good/bad? I see there is a sharp cutoff in amounts as you head west into north wva, does warm sector form out there? How much you thinking for the mountains? I’d say too early for me to wager amounts but an inland track like the models are showing would hit Deep Creek pretty good with frozen. Depending on the track of the 500 and 850 lows, it could get us in the warm sector where we sleet but again, those details need to be worked out. The upslope with this strong of a system would also hit us good as the LP heads N or NE from our latitude. It looks to be a high impact event out there as of now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Thump, mix, dry slot. Can’t tell how long it rains with the 6 hour maps, but I’d guess not a ton. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 114-120 is a long time.. it will trend east. I've seen it since the year 2000, -NAO or any High pressure over Greenland puts these low pressures on the coastline like gravity. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Well at least with this storm I-95 won't have issues as the eye goes right up it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Thump, mix, dry slot. Can’t tell how long it rains with the 6 hour maps, but I’d guess not a ton. very Feb 2014-ish 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 DCA gets 0.9" qpf by 114... I would guess 75% of that would be snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Thump, mix, dry slot. Can’t tell how long it rains with the 6 hour maps, but I’d guess not a ton. Euro seems to be the best case scenario right now. Low end warning snow/sleet then dry for I-95 immediate suburbs, big storm US 15 west. EDIT: Give it a 50 mile east shift and everybody wind bigly. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Sign me up right now for the GEFS and Euro runs... I mean yeah 50 miles east please... but I'd take this and go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro seems to be the best case scenario right now. Low end warning snow/sleet then dry for I-95 immediate suburbs, big storm US 15 west. EDIT: Give it a 50 mile east shift and everybody wind bigly. Time in our corner still, but I would sign that contract NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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