Imgoinhungry Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Onset of precipitation for dc metro sometime around 3pm on Sunday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: One small feature I’ve noticed this morning is the vorticity streamer oriented E-W between our shortwave and the upper low in New England and Atlantic Canada. On my phone so can’t post a graphic, but it shows up very clearly at 84hrs on the GFS, NAM, and Icon through the Great Lakes. Seems like it does help lower heights ahead of the storm. Not sure yet how much it may shift things, because it’s a subtle feature, but I’m going to watch that today. You talking about between hrs 72-84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, H2O said: You talking about between hrs 72-84? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Focusing on the positive, here is the 6 hr precip panel and the DC-area sounding for 00z Monday. Cleanly snow to that point and perhaps a bit after. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GEFS rolling in. 6z 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d love to see the maps and setups leading into 1996, 2003, 2010 at about 36/48 prior. Anybody got any maps or links? Here's one possible source of info https://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1996&maand=1&dag=8&h=0&nmaps=24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: I'll take another 6" in mid-January. Certainly is better than the last few years! Well spoken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Yes This bad boy (circled in blue)? It seems to have strengthened 00z - 06z - 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: You all may have touched on this already... The best case for us along/near the I95 corridor is a WAA thump that transitions to a light sleety/rain mix, or even better, drizzly dry slot, so the rain doesn't wash all the snow away. We've seen setups like this over the past several years, where that heavy rain phase doesn't come to fruition because of the timing of the transfer and a more pervasive dry slot than what was originally advertised 5 days out. I'll gladly take 4-6" of a WAA thump followed by drizzle. Same here, I'd gladly take that. I like your point about the advertised "washout" rain that typically ends up turning into a quasi-dry slot with light sleet then drizzle. Feb. 2014 has been brought up a few times and that's what happened in that event. Maybe we'll get a little more light snow after a dry slot, too, if we're lucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Warmest panel on GEFS. 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, model output 120 hours before a storm never changes. Good declarative statement at this point. Kudos. I guess. Just don't see how this screams clean hit. Almost zero guidance supporting this so that statement is not unrealistic. Likely a thumpage to mix/slot then backend flakeage as the ull pulls thru. Pretty classic look for that tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Paleocene said: This bad boy (circled in blue)? It seems to have strengthened 00z - 06z - 12z Exactly that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Paleocene said: This bad boy (circled in blue)? It seems to have strengthened 00z - 06z - 12z RR is gonna love this 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Pretty decent jump in snowfall map for DC on GEFS FWIW. 6z 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: RR is gonna love this We all will if SNE gets the shaft 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Two different ways to a roughly similar outcome now, why mess with that? The ICON has a high energy coastal and the GFS has a low energy associated low with a weak inland primary tracking KY to upstate NY. The low energy keeps the Atlantic from rushing into the circulation. I suppose the best case scenario is a high energy coastal that ripples back a bit to the east of the current ICON track. But given this is the third significant snowfall in two weeks of early to mid January, this seems quite acceptable if not downright astonishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Onset of precipitation for dc metro sometime around 3pm on Sunday? Sure if you give “sometime around” an incredibly broad definition to render it useless lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GEFS rolling in. Could you possibly post the next frame? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Could you possibly post the next frame? Thanks! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Check out that low near Erie PA, lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 CMC is the worst outcome I've seen in this time frame, while somewhat similar to GFS, there is almost no definition to the coastal and most of the energy is shown with the inland primary. It would snow a bit and then thaw. However, it is the CMC so not to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB 12Z GEFS went the right direction this run compared to 6Z, let’s start a trend! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: CMC is the worst outcome I've seen in this time frame, while somewhat similar to GFS, there is almost no definition to the coastal and most of the energy is shown with the inland primary. It would snow a bit and then thaw. However, it is the CMC so not to worry. I will quote a celebrity in here (H2O): “When has that model ever been right….EVER.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks to me like i was way low on my snowfall forecast. Couple more small east adjustments and DC will add a foot to what they have already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d love to see the maps and setups leading into 1996, 2003, 2010 at about 36/48 prior. Anybody got any maps or links? Discussion of the models’ performance (with some 20th century maps) leading into Jan 1996, from pgs. 19-30 https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/bz-mrg.pdf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 39 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is still evolving and I think the place it may go is toward our more classic snowstorms. The NAM and ICON are steps toward that. And if the cold air damming is more potent, even more so. That low transfers to Norfolk or the outer banks and it’s … I'm not so sure. One thing most guidance is really hearing on is the deep and strong 925mb SE ripping flow. I suppose a cleaner transfer, weaker sw, and track of the sw under us rather than over the big cities could help keep flow vectors with less of a SE component, but that ll jet is sticking out like a sore thumb. Let's nudge that weaker sw under us and take our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Current National Blend of Models 50th percentile for the region through 00z Tuesday next week. This displays a pretty idea of what the current thinking should be given everything we've seen so far. Meso-banding and other parts will of course change localized amounts, but this is solid for a smoothed mean. 9 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I'll take the 988mb off Fenwick Island ftmfw Alex, ty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I don't care if I mix, I just don't want to spike to rain and 50 degrees. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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