WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I’m curious. If anybody had given you a map with a a 1008 low over Biloxi, a 1033 high over Iowa and a 1034 high over Lake Huron, would you not be excited? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, IronTy said: Ji I think somebody hacked your account. Its Randy testing out that impersonation feature 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GFS looks pretty similar to 06z through 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m curious. If anybody had given you a map with a a 1008 low over Biloxi, a 1033 high over Iowa and a 1034 high over Lake Huron, would you not be excited? not anymore it wouldn't...there was a time when I was a younger man....that one afternoon on Gordon street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It's hard to imagine that we'll get rain when there's a 2SD -NAO. Pacific isn't that bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I like this run on the H5 better so far 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks a little flatter out front through 90. Perhaps stopping the west trend a bit.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Slightly lower heights in front. Actually the last few runs that has been trending better. But again I think it’s what’s happening upstream that’s the problem. Slower more amplified SW then more energy diving in behind to pull it NW. So far at 66 the slower more amped trend seems to have stopped but no improvement that I see. Still too soon to know what that last piece will do. At least on what I’m seeing. By the time I type in this I’m sure someone will already know what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Low is a tad further south through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 At 84 on h5, looks like the ocean low is stronger and further West while the main event is in about the same spot and a tad weaker. Seems like it’s gonna be similar or maybe slightly better for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: At 84 on h5, looks like the ocean low is stronger and further West while the main event is in about the same spot and a tad weaker. Seems like it’s gonna be similar or maybe slightly better for us? Subscribe to my weather maps service and you'll be the first to know... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 high pressure a bit weaker though too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'm not seeing the optimism. 850 low is already headed NE from Memphis. That is a bad look for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 96. NS a little slower to dive in and main h5 a little quicker. Mostly just noise but any little bit helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 regardless of what happens after its better at 90 than 6z was. Lower heights in front, slightly less amplified SW and slightly further southeast. The biggest thing is the NW trend of that feature has finally stopped after 6 straight runs of a steady consistent NW and more amplified trend each run we finally got a run that went the other way, if even slightly, with that feature. Again still to soon to know what that 3rd piece of this puzzle does but parts 1 and 2 trended better on this run. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 still have a positive tilt at 96 instead of a neutral on the 102 GFS 6Z... looks better to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Snowing in DC at 102... ripping in CHO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, MN Transplant said: I'm not seeing the optimism. 850 low is already headed NE from Memphis. That is a bad look for us. People looking at the sfc reflection more than the h5. That h5 track doesn’t look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ripping snow in DC at 105 and 108 Transfer ongoing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: People looking at the sfc reflection more than the h5. That h5 track doesn’t look great. I guess you didnt look at 6z... the 12z looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: People looking at the sfc reflection more than the h5. That h5 track doesn’t look great. The end result is pretty similar. Get a 3-5" front end thump (more W) and then it is likely over along 95. That's just what this storm is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Interstate said: I guess you didnt look at 6z... the 12z looks better I’m just thinking big picture, but agree the bleeding has stopped finally it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Good shift for S MD. Funny it has the exact same purple blob E of DC as the ICON snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Ripping snow in DC at 105 and 108 Transfer ongoing Ripping fatties? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GFS for now went a hair east but hopefully its a start of the stopping of the west trend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 A low going from Raleigh to near Norfolk to DC would be unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ripping at DC through 108 then the changeover occurs. Looks better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I81 corridor cleans up this run... but I'll take 4 to 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: I'm not seeing the optimism. 850 low is already headed NE from Memphis. That is a bad look for us. I was mainly focused on seeing the trend towards a slower, further west, and stronger h5 SW in the Tenn Valley stop and it did. This was the first run where that trended back towards what we want...not far enough but at least a halt in a trend that wasn't going to end well if it continued. The flow up top was a little better in front but again of the 3 factors here I think that is the least influential. If I had to rank what is most going to determine the outcome with this its 1) the strength and speed of the SW. Faster and a little weaker is better. 2) the energy diving in behind and how much it phases and or tugs the system to the NW and 3) the flow ahead of it with the departing ocean storm and TPV lobe to our northeast. At hour 90 I did see improvement from factors 1 and 3. 1 needs to continue to improve though, the GFS still has it amplifying and a bit too slow so that it can lift north a bit before we want but at least it didnt continue to get worse like the last 5 runs did progressively each time. Of course if the energy diving in behind continues to trend worse it will offset any minor favorable trends in other areas and it wont matter. Just my 2 cents. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 End result is pretty similar to the last few GFS runs, but for this run at least, the stronger/slower/wester trend stopped. Maybe a blip, hopefully a start. But a step of that size each run puts us in great shape by Sunday 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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