yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: 12z ICON is about six hours slower than previous run and has moved slightly towards the ECM but it still looks okay for a good part of the region (at 114h). Track is now something like New Bern to SBY to TTN to NYC Where are you getting the icon already that far out? I'm only out to 60 on both TT and WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t know why anybody laughed at @Amped post. A cutter into the Tn/Oh valley is still very much in play IMO. Not a lakes cutter but you get the idea. Having said that, the NAM low position at 84 hours would usually be one to salivate over. Even if that happens everyone will see snow from it. Maybe not a huge storm. But it would start as snow for everyone. ICON out on Weather us. It is beautiful. Mouth of the bay pass. We all get smoked. Definitely flips east of the Blur Ridge. But a gorgeous run. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 meteociel.fr tres rapide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 gonna need Wintrymix to decode that post 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Even if that happens everyone will see snow from it. Maybe not a huge storm. But it would start as snow for everyone. ICON out on Weather us. It is beautiful. Mouth of the bay pass. We all get smoked. Definitely flips east of the Blur Ridge. But a gorgeous run. that dosent really sound beautiful...isnt winchester east of the BR? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: that dosent really sound beautiful...isnt winchester east of the BR? No. but Leesburg is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z ICON has the thermal gradient intruding for a few hours into e MD but holds the cold air in place for areas nw of DC, not ideal but similar to the last run of the ECM now. The 500 mb low tracks almost overhead and towards NYC. Would say it's 8-16" for some parts of noVA and w MD, 4-8" for DC and BAL with full transition to rain followed by wrap around flurries. Anyway there is a lot of time left, the first storm hasn't even materialized yet, let alone this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: One thing has become clear with this system....it will not be a flush clean hit for the big cities along i95....that much I think we can say with certainty at this point. Yeah, model output 120 hours before a storm never changes. Good declarative statement at this point. Kudos. 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: that dosent really sound beautiful...isnt winchester east of the BR? You don’t know where the blue ridge is? Wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The ICON is definitely different. It’s low position is in line with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 52 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Randy should've known better than to start a thread for a D6 event in a La Nina year. As a man of science, you should know better than to believe that a thread could affect a storm, but here we are.... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ji said: that dosent really sound beautiful...isnt winchester east of the BR? Shenandoah National Park/Skyline Drive runs atop the Blue Ridge. It is the boundary between Clarke and Loudoun counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You don’t know where the blue ridge is? Wow ive been to winchester multiple times...i dont remember going to through the blue ridge mountains to get there lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 31 minutes ago, Amped said: Almost ready to give up on this. The shortwave isn't going to trend east, and the high isn't going to stick around. Likely a lakes /Midwest snowstorm. Only hope is if the shortwave cuttsoff over the southwest or something ejects ahead of it. You really are one of the worst posters here. Yall are irritating the f*ck out of me already. 2 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The ICON is definitely different. It’s low position is in line with the NAM. The SLP is off the SC coast at 105 and h5 low is over Atlanta 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: As a man of science, you should know better than to believe that a thread could affect a storm, but here we are.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: 12z ICON has the thermal gradient intruding for a few hours into e MD but holds the cold air in place for areas nw of DC, not ideal but similar to the last run of the ECM now. The 500 mb low tracks almost overhead and towards NYC. Would say it's 8-16" for some parts of noVA and w MD, 4-8" for DC and BAL with full transition to rain followed by wrap around flurries. Anyway there is a lot of time left, the first storm hasn't even materialized yet, let alone this one. More like 3-5 cities. 8-12 west. But who's counting? https://weather.us/model-charts/german/2022011212/virginia/snow-depth-in/20220117-1800z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: You really are one of the worst posters here. Yall are irritating the f*ck out of me already. he is actually a really smart weather poster. He knows his stuff. But its stuff like im giving up on the event that is mindboggling. In a snow starved area like ours...i would take 4 inches of snow to rain if it was my best option 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Some will correct me but what was the old saying, "in order to score big you have to be able to smell the rain?" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: he is actually a really smart weather poster. He knows his stuff. But its stuff like im giving up on the event that is mindboggling. In a snow starved area like ours...i would take 4 inches of snow to rain if it was my best option It's not whether he's a good poster or not, but he and all the other debs and whiners making declarative statements 4.5 days before anything is just irritating. If you are out, leave the thread and stop bringing down the room. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 ICON looks ok. 500 low effectively tracks over DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: ive been to winchester multiple times...i dont remember going to through the blue ridge mountains to get there lol lol - if you take Route 50 or I-66 you clearly go over mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's not whether he's a good poster or not, but he and all the other debs and whiners making declarative statements 4.5 days before anything is just irritating. If you are out, leave the thread and stop bringing down the room. i said it much better 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, MN Transplant said: ICON looks ok. 500 low effectively tracks over DC. Get that a little more southeast and we're good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: ICON looks ok. 500 low effectively tracks over DC. It's the best case scenario so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, mappy said: i said it much better cool. Didn't see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: ICON looks ok. 500 low effectively tracks over DC. For sure. It’s 6-8 hours of thumping WAA snow then probably mostly dry slot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: cool. Didn't see it its a page back. no worries. i'm on your side friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: lol - if you take Route 50 or I-66 you clearly go over mountains. lol i take 7 from Leesburg. I didnt realize i was crossing the great blue Ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I blew up my screen mag to the max and the ICON track is about 50s.e. RIC to 50e BAL to TTN to EWR. The pressure is falling steadily into the 980s by about PHL. It does not look perfect for everyone but something to hope for in terms of GFS/GEM backtracks later on, we hope. One of the moving parts that evokes less than perfect trust here is the arctic high, it is a puny thing at present, just 1020 mb over Thomson MB, and while -38F sounds frigid, that is not exceptionally cold for the location near center of high pressure at 0700h local time. Which makes me wonder if the thing can ever reach 1036 mbs let alone low 1040s. I suppose if it was really weak it might have to push down behind the vortmax instead so there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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