Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: One thing has become clear with this system....it will not be a flush clean hit for the big cities along i95....that much I think we can say with certainty at this point. Thanks Ralph for finally being realistic. I often find you are way too optimistic and not realistic but this is a good start buddy!!! -RSC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Randy should've known better than to start a thread for a D6 event in a La Nina year. It isn't exactly like the event has disappeared. It is still an impressive storm, even if many of us are going to see snow-to-rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: It isn't exactly like the event has disappeared. It is still an impressive storm, even if many of us are going to see snow-to-rain. And it's not like a 50 mile shift east would be huge for all of us... it's 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 NAM really dumping the cold air in on Saturday before the storm. Teens into DC itself. Surface freezing line down into central NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NAM really dumping the cold air in on Saturday before the storm. Teens into DC itself. Surface freezing line down into central NC. 1046mb HP in W Quebec will do that... hope it's right Slightly better cold press on 12z compared to 06z... but it's in late land on the NAM lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: And it's not like a 50 mile shift east would be huge for all of us... it's 5 days out. Yeah - I like the idea of a storm, still a lot of uncertainty. An all snow solution seems unlikely for us metro folks but we're still in the game for snow of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: And it's not like a 50 mile shift east would be huge for all of us... it's 5 days out. A 50-mile shift isn't a big deal at all, but those of us who have been around long enough know that getting a storm to shift east is a lot harder than getting it to shift west. Not saying it's impossible, but the last day has understandably sucked the excitement out of a lot of folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Where was the 500mb low passage on the 06z Euro? We desperately need to keep that south of us like the 00z Euro and 06z ICON have. The GFS/CMC solutions are bummers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Way too early for absolutes obviously. But for those of us west of the Blue Ridge we should be pretty confident at this point that we are gonna get hammered. A track west of the mouth of the Bay will mix even out here. But regardless of the model we get wrecked. Make up storm for us after the first storm debacle. 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: It isn't exactly like the event has disappeared. It is still an impressive storm, even if many of us are going to see snow-to-rain. 5 minutes ago, yoda said: And it's not like a 50 mile shift east would be huge for all of us... it's 5 days out. Not to mention that most of us are off Sunday and Monday, and there are plenty of good breweries west of Frederick to set up shop Sunday afternoon to watch football and snow fall. Looking forward to getting to use the 4WD. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Where was the 500mb low passage on the 06z Euro? We desperately need to keep that south of us like the 00z Euro and 06z ICON have. The GFS/CMC solutions are bummers. 6z euro only goes to 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: 6z euro only goes to 90 hours. Ah, crap. That's right. We really want to avoid this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, MN Transplant said: Where was the 500mb low passage on the 06z Euro? We desperately need to keep that south of us like the 00z Euro and 06z ICON have. The GFS/CMC solutions are bummers. Just playing around before 12z but toggling between the 6z ICON and 6z GFS, the ICON actually has a stronger vort than the GFS, GFS just drags too slowly as it marches east. The NS SW that dives in and phases is basically the same on both but the ICON has our main vort over NE Georgia at 102 where the GFS has it over western Arkansas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Ah, crap. That's right. We really want to avoid this: Yea that's terrible. Screaming SE winds will wash out any low level cold. Total disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 FWIW... 12z NAM at 84 h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Even with the GFS solution we still would get a decent front end thump and some heavy snow, not to mention the storm is still 4ish days out. We will be fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Even with the GFS solution we still would get a decent front end thump and some heavy snow, not to mention the storm is still 4ish days out. We will be fine I love ya man, but learned myself over the years that the sage-like wisdom coming from the youngest person on the forum doesn't play well. Usually I found that I was posting things like this to reassure myself, lol. 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Ah, crap. That's right. We really want to avoid this: is this just a product of the low being inland, or is there something else specific to avoid? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Ah, crap. That's right. We really want to avoid this: 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Almost ready to give up on this. The shortwave isn't going to trend east, and the high isn't going to stick around. Likely a lakes /Midwest snowstorm. Only hope is if the shortwave cuttsoff over the southwest or something ejects ahead of it. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Almost ready to give up on this. The shortwave isn't going to trend east, and the high isn't going to stick around. Likely a lakes /Midwest snowstorm. Only hope is if the shortwave cuttsoff over the southwest or something ejects ahead of it. K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I am going out on a limb and say I will like the ICON better this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Interstate said: I am going out on a limb and say I will like the ICON better this run So no Cleveland? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I am going out on a limb and say I will like the ICON better this run Better than its last run or better than the GFS/Euro snow-to-mild-rain bombs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Even with the GFS solution we still would get a decent front end thump and some heavy snow, not to mention the storm is still 4ish days out. We will be fine You're right - we would see some snow on the front end, and we should appreciate it while the snow is falling, but the reality with that solution is that the snow would be washed and melted away quite quickly. Might be tough to enjoy when we know what's coming in just a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: So no Cleveland? It was never Cleveland with the ICON... that was the GFS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The whole thing is just getting slower, slower, slower. It keeps backing up run over run into the energy behind it. Spacing is too much in front and becoming too little behind. Nothing has broken that trend. Hard to see it doing so at this stage but there’s always “the wave isn’t on shore yet” to fall back on I guess, for a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, baltosquid said: The whole thing is just getting slower, slower, slower. It keeps backing up run over run into the energy behind it. Spacing is too much in front and becoming too little behind. Nothing has broken that trend. Hard to see it doing so at this stage but there’s always “the wave isn’t on shore yet” to fall back on I guess, for a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I love ya man, but learned myself over the years that the sage-like wisdom coming from the youngest person on the forum doesn't play well. Usually I found that I was posting things like this to reassure myself, lol. Yeah I guess, but after already getting some decent snow last week it is a lot easier for me to just sort of let this one go. I will always hope we get the best storm we can and be a little upset if this storm misses. At the same time it is pretty unlikely we see nothing from this and at least see some snow fall which is the most important part for me. If we see an all rain storm I will be pretty upset though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I don’t know why anybody laughed at @Amped post. A cutter into the Tn/Oh valley is still very much in play IMO. Not a lakes cutter but you get the idea. Having said that, the NAM low position at 84 hours would usually be one to salivate over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t know why anybody laughed at @Amped post. A cutter into the Tn/Oh valley is still very much in play IMO. Not a lakes cutter but you get the idea. Having said that, the NAM low position at 84 hours would usually be one to salivate over. amped lives in FDK and gave up on the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, Amped said: Almost ready to give up on this. The shortwave isn't going to trend east, and the high isn't going to stick around. Likely a lakes /Midwest snowstorm. Only hope is if the shortwave cuttsoff over the southwest or something ejects ahead of it. This post goes for many here If you are giving up on this storm, then get the **** out of the thread and stop cluttering it with your doom and gloom posts. We don't need to read that shit. Either discuss the models as shown and leave your emotions at door, or get out. One bad "its a disaster" post and the whole thread derails. 32 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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