WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, mappy said: yeah, had i been online while that was happening, those posts would have disappeared Lol you were probably like me … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Anyway, here is Ava's early thoughts. She showed the Euro during her 6:15 weather hit. And I know Ava, she is not a fan of snow. But even she had excitement in her voice this morning about the possibility. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol you were probably like me … I checked in at 1030 just before the GFS came out, but was tired so just went to sleep lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The 6z gfs is almost the scenario I’ve been speaking of. Primary low in tn/ky that jumps. I just didn’t expect it to jump to Manassas. Yeah, I feel like a transfer at that latitude with cold in place can actually work for us. Maybe this will keep evolving….I guess the problem is the high is gone by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 So to my untrained eye, the EURO places the ULL in sw VA and it moves basically northeast from there while the GFS has it move basically through west VA. What causes the difference between the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: As always with a coastal storm, there's 1000 moving parts and subtle changes can initiate huge sensible weather changes at any given location. In general, for those of us in the metro corridor, I think we want to look for a few things to make the storm more white than wet (in no preferred order): 1. Increase confluence and lower heights to our north/northeast. This would resist the N/NW motion of the storm and help lock in colder air longer. 2. Increase the forward speed of the storm. It still has been trending slower, which gives more time for our very nice antecedent airmass to move out. Speed it up and it's moving precip into a better airmass for snow. 3. Delay/weaken the northern stream shortwave in the Great Lakes that yanks it north/northwestward. Without this shortwave, this storm is probably a southern slider. We want it to just provide a LITTLE pull to get it up the coast, but not TOO MUCH that would make it cut to Cleveland. Clearly the trend so far has been too much phasing. 6 hours on the sw over the Midwest would probably be all it would take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Sorry if this was already posted but 00z EPS shifted west pretty significantly compared to 18z, unsurprisingly. Lots of tracks that go over the Bay/Eastern Shore now. vs 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: So to my untrained eye, the EURO places the ULL in sw VA and it moves basically northeast from there while the GFS has it move basically through west VA. What causes the difference between the two? To me, and I’m a dummy, the HP up top moves to the East faster than we would like. If it stays over the NE the.n the low can’t go as far west. The low has to feel the weakness which would be closer to the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This is a disaster. We need pretty significant shifts in all the models now for something significant. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The GFS damn near wants to do a Miller B without the jump 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This is a disaster. We need pretty significant shifts in all the models now for something significant. It. Is. Wednesday. Come on. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Only DC can still get screwed with a good low track. 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It. Is. Wednesday. Come on.Exactly what I was just thinking. Different set up than last storm but still…that thing had significant changes 48 hours ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 When does the 06z EPS come out again? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: When does the 06z EPS come out again? Starts rolling around 745 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This is a disaster. We need pretty significant shifts in all the models now for something significant. First world problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, mappy said: It. Is. Wednesday. Come on. Totally agree. We’ve seen such huge shifts within 60 hours of storm start this year already! We’re at twice that range almost! This storm already had a massive shift in presentation yesterday! I’d say we have AT LEAST until the 0z Friday runs if not more time for positive shifts. That said, 0z euro is a solution I’d still pretty happily take for MBY… 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Totally agree. We’ve seen such huge shifts within 60 hours of storm start this year already! We’re at twice that range almost! This storm already had a massive shift in presentation yesterday! I’d say we have AT LEAST until the 0z Friday runs if not more time for positive shifts. That said, 0z euro is a solution I’d still pretty happily take for MBY… I'd take the UKIE and Euro as well 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, yoda said: I'd take the UKIE and Euro as well The GFS has led the way all year. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Totally agree. We’ve seen such huge shifts within 60 hours of storm start this year already! We’re at twice that range almost! This storm already had a massive shift in presentation yesterday! I’d say we have AT LEAST until the 0z Friday runs if not more time for positive shifts. That said, 0z euro is a solution I’d still pretty happily take for MBY… Let’s move this thing bout 50 miles East for the euro and about 300 for the GFS. I think that’s reasonable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks like the 06z Euro looks good through 90... I believe 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Let’s move this thing bout 50 miles East for the euro and about 300 for the GFS. I think that’s reasonable The only problem is that they keep shifting west. We need to stop that trend first. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Popping in from the SE forum, it's wild how the fate of central NC lines up so much with the fate of this sub forum. Can't think of very many other analogs in that way, other than Jan 2000. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Interstate said: The only problem is that they keep shifting west. We need to stop that trend first. Agreed. We do need the west trend to stop. We don't want this to trend so far west that it's congrats Detroit. Hard to come back from that as we get under 100 hours. Still plenty of time to adjust to a more favorable low location from where it's at now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Popping in from the SE forum, it's wild how the fate of central NC lines up so much with the fate of this sub forum. Can't think of very many other analogs in that way, other than Jan 2000. It often aligns with the NC Triad, but not sure if you consider it Central North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 hours ago, Ji said: 9 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Man if only the icon was right lol. What a run that was. The blue seems suspect so close to the storm track but german engineering I know this is way late but my mornings are early and crazy so I actually sleep at night now. But on that icon run (and it’s something to watch for in general) is a fully matured cyclone with a surface low vertically stacked under the mid and upper level lows. That’s why the WAA cuts off to the west of the track and the rain/snow line is so close to the low. The down side to that is often a storm will start to develop nasty dry slots in the cold sector since that also cuts off the deep moisture transport and so the banding becomes mostly lift and dynamics induced. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Icon looks amazing if you are in Hagerstown area. They are getting crushed. Those to the east are likely getting flurries or snow showers. High ratio stuff for sure, but nothing much going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Most important runs in model tracking history today? Looking at the gfs the only real difference I saw the last several runs is where that 50/50 blocking low ends up. In the better solutions it was further north and west, which seems to keep the hp over top from weakening/moving east so quickly. Still a few too many moving parts to know which scenario is the highest probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB EPS at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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