Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,794
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    manaja
    Newest Member
    manaja
    Joined

MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

23 hours ago, CAPE said:

Give me cold in place and I will take my chances. Sure a phased bomb hugging the coast could still wreck it, but I like the odds with moisture moving into an entrenched cold air mass.

More of a risk in a progressive pattern, with no real block to aid in suppressing the track/holding the cold air in place. 

Still time for changes but the ens means are beginning to suggest a more inland track is possible, supportive of the ops. This one may be more wet than white for the lowlands.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

More of a risk in a progressive pattern, with no real block to aid in suppressing the track/holding the cold air in place. 

Still time for changes but the ens means are beginning to suggest a more inland track is possible, supportive of the ops. This one may be more wet than white for the lowlands.

Last evening I was speculating whether the ensembles were "chasing" the Ops.  18z EPS seemed to go the other way, but the overnight runs definitely look like chasing is in progress.  Still lots of time for this to wobble back the other way...or turn into congrats Detroit.  

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Ji said:
6 hours ago, Deck Pic said:
It's potentially a good opportunity to chase on a 3 day weekend if there's a tight gradient.  I'd prefer to enjoy the storm at home, but if I'm looking at 1-2" and and 90 minutes WNW is 12-16", kind of an easy call to grab a hotel room Sunday night.

Hotels in front royal start at 9.99 a night

But you probably won’t get shot

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was really hard to follow wtf the models did last night, lot of banter to read through. 

I don't want storm mode, so this is me, mom, asking yall just to dial it back from an 8 to a 4/5 today regarding banter posts during model runs.

Many thanks :wub: 

  • Like 10
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As always with a coastal storm, there's 1000 moving parts and subtle changes can initiate huge sensible weather changes at any given location.  In general, for those of us in the metro corridor, I think we want to look for a few things to make the storm more white than wet (in no preferred order):

1.  Increase confluence and lower heights to our north/northeast.  This would resist the N/NW motion of the storm and help lock in colder air longer.

2.  Increase the forward speed of the storm.  It still has been trending slower, which gives more time for our very nice antecedent airmass to move out.  Speed it up and it's moving precip into a better airmass for snow.

3.  Delay/weaken the northern stream shortwave in the Great Lakes that yanks it north/northwestward.  Without this shortwave, this storm is probably a southern slider.  We want it to just provide a LITTLE pull to get it up the coast, but not TOO MUCH that would make it cut to Cleveland.  Clearly the trend so far has been too much phasing.  

 

 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Was really hard to follow wtf the models did last night, lot of banter to read through. 

I don't want storm mode, so this is me, mom, asking yall just to dial it back from an 8 to a 4/5 today regarding banter posts during model runs.

Many thanks :wub: 

Even I would agree. It was awful last night. Mainly CenterTim. What a performance that was.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...