Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Cleveland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB 6Z GFS at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Cleveland?Guardians? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Snow moving into CHO at 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Snow just SW of DCA at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS at 96 That looks souther High is stronger over NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Mod-heavy snow in DCA at 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Primary is taking too long to transfer... DCA flirting with rain at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 lulz... 989 over DCA at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Low same spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 No one on the East Coast likes this run... quick heavy snow to rain for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, yoda said: No one on the East Coast likes this run... quick heavy snow to rain for all Cleveland does... couple more runs and they will jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 23 hours ago, CAPE said: Give me cold in place and I will take my chances. Sure a phased bomb hugging the coast could still wreck it, but I like the odds with moisture moving into an entrenched cold air mass. More of a risk in a progressive pattern, with no real block to aid in suppressing the track/holding the cold air in place. Still time for changes but the ens means are beginning to suggest a more inland track is possible, supportive of the ops. This one may be more wet than white for the lowlands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB 6Z GEFS is west of 0Z. But GFS is still a western outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GFS leads the way. Hopefully the euro remains east of the GFs. Obviously, ICON sucks but that seems to be best case scenario right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Still a lot of uncertainty with GEFS looking at snow maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: More of a risk in a progressive pattern, with no real block to aid in suppressing the track/holding the cold air in place. Still time for changes but the ens means are beginning to suggest a more inland track is possible, supportive of the ops. This one may be more wet than white for the lowlands. Last evening I was speculating whether the ensembles were "chasing" the Ops. 18z EPS seemed to go the other way, but the overnight runs definitely look like chasing is in progress. Still lots of time for this to wobble back the other way...or turn into congrats Detroit. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorgitoWX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Love this thread. Happy '22 you all! Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, Anyweather said: Short pump doesn’t like this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 hours ago, Ji said: 6 hours ago, Deck Pic said: It's potentially a good opportunity to chase on a 3 day weekend if there's a tight gradient. I'd prefer to enjoy the storm at home, but if I'm looking at 1-2" and and 90 minutes WNW is 12-16", kind of an easy call to grab a hotel room Sunday night. Hotels in front royal start at 9.99 a night But you probably won’t get shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Was really hard to follow wtf the models did last night, lot of banter to read through. I don't want storm mode, so this is me, mom, asking yall just to dial it back from an 8 to a 4/5 today regarding banter posts during model runs. Many thanks 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 As always with a coastal storm, there's 1000 moving parts and subtle changes can initiate huge sensible weather changes at any given location. In general, for those of us in the metro corridor, I think we want to look for a few things to make the storm more white than wet (in no preferred order): 1. Increase confluence and lower heights to our north/northeast. This would resist the N/NW motion of the storm and help lock in colder air longer. 2. Increase the forward speed of the storm. It still has been trending slower, which gives more time for our very nice antecedent airmass to move out. Speed it up and it's moving precip into a better airmass for snow. 3. Delay/weaken the northern stream shortwave in the Great Lakes that yanks it north/northwestward. Without this shortwave, this storm is probably a southern slider. We want it to just provide a LITTLE pull to get it up the coast, but not TOO MUCH that would make it cut to Cleveland. Clearly the trend so far has been too much phasing. 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Was really hard to follow wtf the models did last night, lot of banter to read through. I don't want storm mode, so this is me, mom, asking yall just to dial it back from an 8 to a 4/5 today regarding banter posts during model runs. Many thanks Even I would agree. It was awful last night. Mainly CenterTim. What a performance that was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Even I would agree. It was awful last night. Mainly CenterTim. What a performance that was. yeah, had i been online while that was happening, those posts would have disappeared 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The 6z gfs is almost the scenario I’ve been speaking of. Primary low in tn/ky that jumps. I just didn’t expect it to jump to Manassas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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