yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Morning AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Saturday will be the "calm before the storm" during the long term period across our region. A strong 1040+ mb artic high will be building to our north, setting the stage for much colder air. Highs will likely not make it above freezing for most on Saturday, but we should be dry during this period. Elsewhere on Saturday, a winter storm will be brewing over the central Plains and into the southeast. The first key feature will be a very strong Alberta Clipper system that dives out of Canada through the central Plains and into the southeast by Saturday night. The upper low looks to cut off over the southeast Saturday night. Meanwhile, probably the most important piece of the puzzle will be another upper low diving out of central Canada into the Great Lakes region Sunday through Monday morning. For our area, this sets the stage for a potentially high impact winter storm across the region. Surface low pressure will slide across the southeast before transferring energy off the east coast into Sunday night. As is so often the case with these storms, the track, as well as warm air aloft, are going to be key in who gets an all snow event versus who gets a wintry mix and who may even just get a plain cold rain. Guidance is starting to come into at least some agreement that areas west of the I-95 corridor could be in for a high impact winter storm, while the I-95 corridor and areas east still hold some uncertainty. Virtually all guidance at this point is at least agreeing on a strong low moving up the eastern seaboard, it is just a matter of how close it tracks to the coast. Again, as is often the case, 20 miles can make all the difference. Those details will have to be ironed out as we continue to move closer to the event. For now, just be prepared for a potentially high impact winter storm across the area, and check weather.gov/lwx/winter for more updates on the forecast as we get closer to the event. One minor change on this cycle is that the guidance seems to be speeding up in terms of when the low departs. By Monday morning most of the precipitation should be off to our northeast. High pressure then briefly returns through Tuesday, with highs expected to be near seasonal averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 06z ICON looks good to me... those temps though are a bit lol... teens and 20s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Yup! ICON at 6Z, and still snowing… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Note it is still snowing heavily across the region as the deformation band is moving through eastward at 120 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB depictions of 6Z ICON and as pointed out by Yoda not done yet.., 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Cleveland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB 6Z GFS at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Cleveland?Guardians? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Snow moving into CHO at 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Snow just SW of DCA at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS at 96 That looks souther High is stronger over NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Mod-heavy snow in DCA at 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Primary is taking too long to transfer... DCA flirting with rain at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 lulz... 989 over DCA at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Low same spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 No one on the East Coast likes this run... quick heavy snow to rain for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, yoda said: No one on the East Coast likes this run... quick heavy snow to rain for all Cleveland does... couple more runs and they will jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 23 hours ago, CAPE said: Give me cold in place and I will take my chances. Sure a phased bomb hugging the coast could still wreck it, but I like the odds with moisture moving into an entrenched cold air mass. More of a risk in a progressive pattern, with no real block to aid in suppressing the track/holding the cold air in place. Still time for changes but the ens means are beginning to suggest a more inland track is possible, supportive of the ops. This one may be more wet than white for the lowlands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB 6Z GEFS is west of 0Z. But GFS is still a western outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GFS leads the way. Hopefully the euro remains east of the GFs. Obviously, ICON sucks but that seems to be best case scenario right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Still a lot of uncertainty with GEFS looking at snow maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: More of a risk in a progressive pattern, with no real block to aid in suppressing the track/holding the cold air in place. Still time for changes but the ens means are beginning to suggest a more inland track is possible, supportive of the ops. This one may be more wet than white for the lowlands. Last evening I was speculating whether the ensembles were "chasing" the Ops. 18z EPS seemed to go the other way, but the overnight runs definitely look like chasing is in progress. Still lots of time for this to wobble back the other way...or turn into congrats Detroit. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorgitoWX Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Love this thread. Happy '22 you all! Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, Anyweather said: Short pump doesn’t like this trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 hours ago, Ji said: 6 hours ago, Deck Pic said: It's potentially a good opportunity to chase on a 3 day weekend if there's a tight gradient. I'd prefer to enjoy the storm at home, but if I'm looking at 1-2" and and 90 minutes WNW is 12-16", kind of an easy call to grab a hotel room Sunday night. Hotels in front royal start at 9.99 a night But you probably won’t get shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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