Dabuckeyes Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: @Snowchaser Considering this is TWCs forecast for me, I'd say it's as useful as the weather rock Always wise to rely on weather apps and the weather channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Gefs trending west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: The what now? Lol 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Dabuckeyes said: Always wise to rely on weather apps and the weather channel What’s my father in-law says. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Massive drop in confidence for this timeframe on the ensemble... I'm a little worried that could presage a shift in thinking on the GEFS that has it cave to the OP in coming runs, but I know that's not necessarily the case and inter run changes in certainty shouldn't be anything to get hung up on. Just weird to suddenly get so much more spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: Hahaha Just why? (Literally made a whole sign for this, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GEFS doesn’t have members riding as far west as the op but it’s definitely a bit west of its 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: You gotta love folks taking a day five GFS run as a nowcast when ensembles are suppressed. It’s almost like no one has been here before. I've tried the "rational, learn from your mistakes way" and it's not as fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Gefs mean is beautiful but worthless. There is quite a bit of members now west of mean 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: What’s my father in-law says. That’s what my parents and in-laws always say. “My phone says a giant snowflake” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Gefs trending west Definitely seems to have moved away from the suppressed/OTS solutions. Clearly see that in the images above that jaydreb posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, CntrTim85 said: I mean if we take the ICON, add it to the 84 NAM that looks juicy and multiply that by the GEFS, round that to the nearest 100 of the JMA and add it to the NAVGEM, we're looking at a pretty solid car topper. . . maybe mulch and grass before heavy rain. You forgot the CRAS model! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB 0Z GEFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The GGEM looks a bit better than the GFS but not much and doesn't quite catch fire. Not sure if your discussion about ICON has seen the 00z run early or still waiting to see it? I saw it on meteociel and it looks good. Track is coastal. Problem with ICON is that it tends to go to various extremes and unless the outcome is extreme that makes it unlikely to verify. But you can always hope. Bit of a blind man's bluff at this point, working with some very weak signals that have ways of producing a good storm. Would not toss at this early stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Next Tomorrow NOAA will say they dropped the remaining 42 weather balloons in the eastern Pacific so modeling will become more reliable going forward our bad on the 0z model suite throw them out real deal starts at 12z runs Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GEFS Only 24 or 26 will do. I want all or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 CMC looks a lot like GFS, maybe slightly better for the western suburbs. Can’t ignore that all the major ops have almost the same solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I would say the GEFS would be a complete failure if the GFS ends up being 100 percent right with its current solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I would say the GEFS would be a complete failure if the GFS ends up being 100 percent right with its current solution.Remember always go with and post the least snow solution! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 My guess Is ukmet is has low either over erie pa or Jacksonville fl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Ji said: My guess Is ukmet is has low either over erie pa or Jacksonville fl Ukmet is 18" at DC on Kuchera clown map. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Can anyone remember a storm track like were seeing on the globals. definitely not a track I can recall any recent previous storms taking. usually with that trajectory out of the Midwest it's congrats Carolinas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I would say the GEFS would be a complete failure if the GFS ends up being 100 percent right with its current solution. Remember always go with and post the least snow solution! Yes go with 1-2” of snow followed by 1-2” of rain Thunder and temps rising into the mid to upper 40s then crash back down to 20 typical storm DCA Balt to PHL NYC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Tough to buy into UK when it’s always late to the party and trends southeast to northwest as the event draws closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Disc said: Ukmet is 18" at DC on Kuchera clown map. Pics or it didn’t happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: My guess Is ukmet is has low either over erie pa or Jacksonville fl I’ll go Jacksonville to Bermuda Euro too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ukmet is 18" at DC on Kuchera clown map. Lol looks like jan 3 storm snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Can anyone remember a storm track like were seeing on the globals. definitely not a track I can recall any recent previous storms taking. usually with that trajectory out of the Midwest it's congrats Carolinas. Looks like the 1980s to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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