Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Since we know soundings are very accurate on a global model at day 5, I took a quick look at DCA and it gets a solid 3-4" before mixing and changing over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Still a decent thump on the front end, then hopefully we dry slot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Since we know soundings are very accurate on a global model at day 5, I took a quick look at DCA and it gets a solid 3-4" before mixing and changing over. That put you at average by mlk day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Had potential, the High just gets booted out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 At Hour 120 the low is actually slightly further east then 18z You can see the rain/sleet/ snow line drop very slightly in se va. not much change overall but I dot think it was any worse then 18z. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Well that sucked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This is a great run for those just west of the mix line...maybe panhandle of WV? Haven't looked close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 You gotta love folks taking a day five GFS run as a nowcast when ensembles are suppressed. It’s almost like no one has been here before. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, CntrTim85 said: Don't worry guys! The NOAA will let some birthday balloons go off in Montana tomorrow to feed some extra data into the GFS that'll bring a hefty dusting before turning into a monsoon! This was your best post 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3-4” for DC snowy, icy, rainy mess if the gfs runs true. Congrats eastern WV and western VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Well that sucked! You got 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: This is a great run for those just west of the mix line...maybe panhandle of WV? Haven't looked close I-81 special…. 14” for Front Royal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Upslope cranks for the mountains as the low pulls N/NE of the region. Good for the ski places. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Kleimax said: This was your best post That’s an oxymoron. I’ll take the flying garbage can cover guy over this tool any day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 We have NOGAPS & ICON on our side. How can we lose? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The track does suck for the comma head we usually get with a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ain't freakin' out over this... 1) Was never invested because I knew whatever the ocean storm was gonna give all kind of wild swings, and the fact that we needed it to not be too strong or two weak...eh, too complicated. 2) I like next week/weekend time period better. But this is only Tuesday...so this could come back. If not...my earlier post that was looked down upon a bit will end up being right, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, CntrTim85 said: That’s hilarious in an hour it will be Cincy to Cleveland and then they will say someone is going to get clobbered in the east! Can’t go wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Chase said: I-81 special…. 16” for Front Royal It's potentially a good opportunity to chase on a 3 day weekend if there's a tight gradient. I'd prefer to enjoy the storm at home, but if I'm looking at 1-2" and and 90 minutes WNW is 12-16", kind of an easy call to grab a hotel room Sunday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 NAO is negative looks better than 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ji talking people down from the ledge feels weird 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB GEFS about the same at 96 as it was at 18Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It's potentially a good opportunity to chase on a 3 day weekend if there's a tight gradient. I'd prefer to enjoy the storm at home, but if I'm looking at 1-2" and and 90 minutes WNW is 12-16", kind of an easy call to grab a hotel room Sunday night.Hotels in front royal start at 9.99 a night 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Updated from TWC for my location. I know they can’t be trusted but these totals would sure make me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Could be worse. Give it time! It will be! 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Well that sucked! You got 6? Maybe for now! LOL! But I was ready for a big one! What a freaking crazy way the models have handled this! Such bizarre challenges and changes! Big one's are rare in our back yards, so I just need to remember that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: It's potentially a good opportunity to chase on a 3 day weekend if there's a tight gradient. I'd prefer to enjoy the storm at home, but if I'm looking at 1-2" and and 90 minutes WNW is 12-16", kind of an easy call to grab a hotel room Sunday night. Hotels in front royal start at 9.99 a night As long as there's a TV in the room so I can watch the playoffs while the storm busts, I'll be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Low position on the GFS is still riding the absolute most NW portion of the GEFS envelope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Low position on the GFS is still riding the absolute most NW portion of the GEFS envelope.That has the look of likely no more suppressed solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 @Snowchaser Considering this is TWCs forecast for me, I'd say it's as useful as the weather rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: @Snowchaser Considering this is TWCs forecast for me, I'd say it's as useful as the weather rock The what now? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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