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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

The reasoning makes no sense. He argues for the ensemble quantity which would leave western regions high and dry, with suppression killing totals even for the bullseye, but then at the end calls for a massive snowstorm in western regions regardless of where the storm tracks. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The thing that's bothering me the most about this storm is we just went 2 for 2. I mean sure, there's a strong case that the universe owes us some storms after some of the recent debacles. But still... 3 for 3? Idk man. We are who we think we were and stuff

Gambler’s fallacy. 

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9 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

Not liking what I see from the gfs so far out east. Maybe something else can balance it out. Could be even further west. 

I take back what I said. Ocean storm is phasing more effectively with the TPV allowing for lower heights over the NE. Not exactly sure why the phasing helps to allow for lower heights but that is the result.

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The thing that's bothering me the most about this storm is we just went 2 for 2. I mean sure, there's a strong case that the universe owes us some storms after some of the recent debacles. But still... 3 for 3? Idk man. We are who we think we were and stuff

Get greedy. Retrograde the whole pattern and get the ocean storm too. There's no limit to optimism, pessimism has the lower bound of zero unless maybe one could visualize negative snow. 

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