H2O Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:23 PM, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, we can joke before the Euro, but after that, we gotta try to keep the train on the tracks and limit banter, etc. Don't make me bring Mapgirl in here. Expand Mappy for admin!! 28/8 baro 30.56. Too soon? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:30 PM, diatae said: This storm was poised to ruin many sorority MLK prayer breakfasts. Starting this thread will surely cancel the storm (physics). Alpha Kappa Alpha thanks you. Expand How about rain for La Plata and snow for everyone else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:23 PM, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, we can joke before the Euro, but after that, we gotta try to keep the train on the tracks and limit banter, etc. Don't make me bring Mapgirl in here. Expand On 1/11/2022 at 5:23 PM, WxUSAF said: Storm mode yet?? Expand I will not abide by this. Just letting you guys know. We did great with the past two storms. Lol, just pulling your chain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:31 PM, Eskimo Joe said: How about rain for La Plata and snow for everyone else. Expand Are you threatening me with the norm? I shudder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:29 PM, stormtracker said: You can share. Expand Or show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:23 PM, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, we can joke before the Euro, but after that, we gotta try to keep the train on the tracks and limit banter, etc. Don't make me bring Mapgirl in here. Expand you called? PS. just because I did post in this thread does not mean I am abiding by terms and conditions. you get the blame if it fails. sorry that's just how it works. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Somebody in Canada is effing with us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:34 PM, mappy said: you called? PS. just because I did post in this thread does not mean I am abiding by terms and conditions. you get the blame if it fails. sorry that's just how it works. Expand Go MG go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:24 PM, MillvilleWx said: Absolutely agree with this assessment. The 5H look SCREAMS a huge thump of snow before any switch over. There is one part to keep an eye on and its the positioning of the high pressure to the north. A spot like the CMC would allow for u-vector winds to be off the charts and usher in maritime air within the 850-925mb layer of the PBL. That would change things to sleet EASY, but not before a nuking occurs with snow. The further NW you are, the better in this setup. This is actually a great system for an area like Hagerstown/Martinsburg/Winchester crew. Expand You had mentioned something earlier about how you don't necessarily see this as flipping to heavy, driving rain...but rather to sleet based on the soundings. I went back and took a quick look at a couple of soundings in and around DC at f138 (when it has us raining here), and I think I see what you're talking about. Looks like the column quickly cools (though GFS has sfc just above freezing still) and indicates some wrap-around like precip after that. ETA: Not that I should be parsing soundings this far out, but just for argument's sake is all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 This really happening? 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:34 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Go MG go Expand Lets be honest, he knows damn well he needs me to be the mean mod when things get awful. so pffft to terms and conditions lol 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Will be really interesting to see if the Euro closes off the 500 low on this run. The other globals do and the NAM (lol) looked like it was headed that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:36 PM, mappy said: Lets be honest, he knows damn well he needs me to be the mean mod when things get awful. so pffft to terms and conditions lol Expand If I could have moved those posts from the last storm I would have and been the mean one. But TBH I was too busy laughing too much from those rant posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:34 PM, mappy said: you called? PS. just because I did post in this thread does not mean I am abiding by terms and conditions. you get the blame if it fails. sorry that's just how it works. Expand You are exempt. Even I'm scared of you. Don't warn me. Please. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:35 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: You had mentioned something earlier about how you don't necessarily see this as flipping to heavy, driving rain...but rather to sleet based on the soundings. I went back and took a quick look at a couple of soundings in and around DC at f138 (when it has us raining here), and I think I see what you're talking about. Looks like the column quickly cools (though GFS has sfc just above freezing still) and indicates some wrap-around like precip after that. Expand Correct. Also, the GFS is not a good model with handling a sharp transition zone with storms like this. It erodes the PBL too easy, then goes way off the rails near the surface. The antecedent airmass leading in is fresh and very cold. That's another reason why a setup like this would yield a thump of snow before a transition. This is a dynamic system if it evolves as depicted. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:36 PM, mappy said: Lets be honest, he knows damn well he needs me to be the mean mod when things get awful. so pffft to terms and conditions lol Expand You’re not mean. You just don’t allow whining. Smartass remarks, my specialty as well as many of us, usually fly right by. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:37 PM, H2O said: If I could have moved those posts from the last storm I would have and been the mean one. But TBH I was too busy laughing too much from those rant posts Expand moving posts is the worst. such a hassle. really need to get you those powers so i don't have to do that grunt work. On 1/11/2022 at 5:37 PM, stormtracker said: You are exempt. Even I'm scared of you. Don't warn me. Please. Expand I love you too boo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:38 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: You’re not mean. You just don’t allow whining. Smartass remarks, my specialty as well as many of us, usually fly right by. Lol Expand aww shucks, thanks. I'm really cool and pleasant to be around, ask @Baltimorewx But whining. GTFO 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 WB 12Z Can ensemble 8 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:37 PM, MillvilleWx said: Correct. Also, the GFS is not a good model with handling a sharp transition zone with storms like this. It erodes the PBL too easy, then goes way off the rails near the surface. The antecedent airmass leading in is fresh and very cold. That's another reason why a setup like this would yield a thump of snow before a transition. This is a dynamic system if it evolves as depicted. Expand Yeah it just completely blasts the PBL away like nothing, that's for sure. Personally, in that setup, I'd be fine with a sleet topper above a heavy layer of snow that has already fallen, that then turns into a glacier (as @Bob Chill might say). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:39 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z Can ensemble Expand We have the Canadian ens before the surface. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:39 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z Can ensemble Expand That looks pretty classic to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:41 PM, Dabuckeyes said: Expand But still no surface maps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:41 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: That looks pretty classic to me Expand Another massive guidance shift... 12z 06z 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:41 PM, Dabuckeyes said: Expand That looks like ass 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:41 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: That looks pretty classic to me Expand Yeah, they actually look pretty damn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/11/2022 at 5:43 PM, H2O said: That looks like ass Expand It's a good thing the ensemble looks much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Who did we get in the trade for Buddy with the se forum? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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