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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

In all seriousness, we can joke before the Euro, but after that, we gotta try to keep the train on the tracks and limit banter, etc.  Don't make me bring Mapgirl in here. 

Mappy for admin!!

 

28/8 baro 30.56. Too soon?

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

In all seriousness, we can joke before the Euro, but after that, we gotta try to keep the train on the tracks and limit banter, etc.  Don't make me bring Mapgirl in here. 

 

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Storm mode yet??

I will not abide by this. Just letting you guys know. We did great with the past two storms. Lol, just pulling your chain

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10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

In all seriousness, we can joke before the Euro, but after that, we gotta try to keep the train on the tracks and limit banter, etc.  Don't make me bring Mapgirl in here. 

you called?

PS. just because I did post in this thread does not mean I am abiding by terms and conditions. you get the blame if it fails. sorry that's just how it works. 

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11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Absolutely agree with this assessment. The 5H look SCREAMS a huge thump of snow before any switch over. There is one part to keep an eye on and its the positioning of the high pressure to the north. A spot like the CMC would allow for u-vector winds to be off the charts and usher in maritime air within the 850-925mb layer of the PBL. That would change things to sleet EASY, but not before a nuking occurs with snow. The further NW you are, the better in this setup. This is actually a great system for an area like Hagerstown/Martinsburg/Winchester crew. 

You had mentioned something earlier about how you don't necessarily see this as flipping to heavy, driving rain...but rather to sleet based on the soundings.  I went back and took a quick look at a couple of soundings in and around DC at f138 (when it has us raining here), and I think I see what you're talking about.  Looks like the column quickly cools (though GFS has sfc just above freezing still) and indicates some wrap-around like precip after that.

ETA:  Not that I should be parsing soundings this far out, but just for argument's sake is all!

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Just now, mappy said:

Lets be honest, he knows damn well he needs me to be the mean mod when things get awful. so pffft to terms and conditions lol

If I could have moved those posts from the last storm I would have and been the mean one.  But TBH I was too busy laughing too much from those rant posts

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

You had mentioned something earlier about how you don't necessarily see this as flipping to heavy, driving rain...but rather to sleet based on the soundings.  I went back and took a quick look at a couple of soundings in and around DC at f138 (when it has us raining here), and I think I see what you're talking about.  Looks like the column quickly cools (though GFS has sfc just above freezing still) and indicates some wrap-around like precip after that.

Correct. Also, the GFS is not a good model with handling a sharp transition zone with storms like this. It erodes the PBL too easy, then goes way off the rails near the surface. The antecedent airmass leading in is fresh and very cold. That's another reason why a setup like this would yield a thump of snow before a transition. This is a dynamic system if it evolves as depicted. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

Lets be honest, he knows damn well he needs me to be the mean mod when things get awful. so pffft to terms and conditions lol

You’re not mean. You just don’t allow whining. Smartass remarks, my specialty as well as many of us, usually fly right by. Lol

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Just now, H2O said:

If I could have moved those posts from the last storm I would have and been the mean one.  But TBH I was too busy laughing too much from those rant posts

moving posts is the worst. such a hassle. really need to get you those powers so i don't have to do that grunt work. 

Just now, stormtracker said:

You are exempt.

Even I'm scared of you.  Don't warn me.  Please.  

I love you too boo

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Correct. Also, the GFS is not a good model with handling a sharp transition zone with storms like this. It erodes the PBL too easy, then goes way off the rails near the surface. The antecedent airmass leading in is fresh and very cold. That's another reason why a setup like this would yield a thump of snow before a transition. This is a dynamic system if it evolves as depicted. 

Yeah it just completely blasts the PBL away like nothing, that's for sure.  Personally, in that setup, I'd be fine with a sleet topper above a heavy layer of snow that has already fallen, that then turns into a glacier (as @Bob Chill might say).

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