WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: yep -- lot of suppression upon a closer examination. maybe a better problem than a cutter? ens that hit are nice though. feast or famine. You realize that suppressed means you have no chance at anything right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yeah, 12z EPS was better vs 18z. I think its more likely this is suppressed or too far East/OTS than an I-81 runner. Clearly everything is on the table 5 days out. Weird with the ops running this further to the west that the EPS is pushing it the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB 18Z EURO control is a lot like the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: You realize that suppressed means you have no chance at anything right? "Vibe" wise, I'm happy to let the cutter trend stop for a few runs. Let that worry mellow out for a bit. With suppression we can at least pretend it's right where we want it, that's difficult to say when the low keeps running more and more inland and the model is showing 40 and rain for the close burbs verbatim. also, as I've beat to death, I can always go to Charlottesville. Cutter/suppressed could work out equally well there. I'll play as many sides as I need to play to win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 We got to admit we just don’t know what is going to happen with this storm yet. Currently it could be a cutter or a southeastern exclusive, no need to lose sleep over it… yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: We got to admit we just don’t know what is going to happen with this storm yet. Currently it could be a cutter or a southeastern exclusive, no need to lose sleep over it… yet. Amazing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: "Vibe" wise, I'm happy to let the cutter trend stop for a few runs. Let that worry mellow out for a bit. With suppression we can at least pretend it's right where we want it, that's difficult to say when the low keeps running more and more inland and the model is showing 40 and rain for the close burbs verbatim. also, as I've beat to death, I can always go to Charlottesville. Cutter/suppressed could work out equally well there. I'll play as many sides as I need to play to win. I don’t think what you’re calling a cutter and a cutter are the same thing. When I say cutter, I’m talking west of the apps with a primary throwing copious moisture into the cad that would be established over our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This thing could look totally different 24 hours before the event starts. You wouldn't want it to show what you want it to show right now else it wouldn't pan out. -RSC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Amazing. I think I’m seeing a new definition of cutter tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: We got to admit we just don’t know what is going to happen with this storm yet. Currently it could be a cutter or a southeastern exclusive, no need to lose sleep over it… yet. Just now, Rockem_sockem_connection said: This thing could look totally different 24 hours before the event starts. You wouldn't want it to show what you want it to show right now else it wouldn't pan out. -RSC What language is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Amazing. Virtual learning result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 At least we’re only an hour away from extrapolating the 84 hour NAM… 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t think what you’re calling a cutter and a cutter are the same thing. When I say cutter, I’m talking west of the apps with a primary throwing copious moisture into the cad that would be established over our area. Honestly, totally true. Shouldn't throw out terms without a perfect idea of what I'm talking about. That said, I stand by personally being less concerned with suppression, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: This thing could look totally different 24 hours before the event starts. You wouldn't want it to show what you want it to show right now else it wouldn't pan out. -RSC Exactly, because if it showed what we wanted it to show what is shown, then when it shows what will actually be shown what we want it to show, then it probably will show EXACTLY what we wanted it to show all along and the original shown show will pan out. 1 2 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think I’m seeing a new definition of cutter tonight. I've only seen an apps runner so far on models. No Cleveland superbomb solutions yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: At least we’re only an hour away from extrapolating the 84 hour NAM… I extrapolated it before it even comes out. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17.8/9.4 here on 21057 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: At least we’re only an hour away from extrapolating the 84 hour NAM… It might have the low in Maine after last nights debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: You are super wrong about the current forecast models, but you do have some support on the analog side. There are groups out there that are experimenting with machine learning using a trained data set (the analogs). It’ll be interesting to see how that works out. I expect if they can somehow use AI to incorporate analog methodology and bias correction to the classic simulations we will see a huge leap. Not sure how far off that is yet. Over the years I’ve found a lot of success using cips analogs to hedge the nwp guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: This thing could look totally different 24 hours before the event starts. You wouldn't want it to show what you want it to show right now else it wouldn't pan out. -RSC "I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve." --Bilbo Baggins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Exactly, because if it showed what we wanted it to show what is shown, then when it shows what will actually be shown what we want it to show, then it probably will show EXACTLY what we wanted it to show all along and the original shown show will pan out. See, what we have here are shown no-shows and unshown showns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, Interstate said: 17.8/9.4 here on 21057 How will these current obs impact sundays system? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, Amped said: I've only seen an apps runner so far on models. No Cleveland superbomb solutions yet. To be fair, what I see as a possibility would be a true cutter either. I envision a scenario where a low forms in the vicinity of the Miss/Tn border, drifts to eastern ky or so and then jumps to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, snowfan said: How will these current obs impact sundays system? Too warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Exactly, because if it showed what we wanted it to show what is shown, then when it shows what will actually be shown what we want it to show, then it probably will show EXACTLY what we wanted it to show all along and the original shown show will pan out. You really showed him 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: You really showed him Show off!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 DT is riding the #snowtrain https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/tuesday-730pm-update-on-jan-15-16-east-coast-winter-storm-d46de7f907e8 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Exactly, because if it showed what we wanted it to show what is shown, then when it shows what will actually be shown what we want it to show, then it probably will show EXACTLY what we wanted it to show all along and the original shown show will pan out. On the other hand, or perhaps at the same time, if it shows what we want it to show, it could be shown to be quite a show when it is eventually shown, per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: On the other hand, or perhaps at the same time, if it shows what we want it to show, it could be shown to be quite a show when it is eventually shown, per se. In which case, we would most certainly have a show-stopper! (apologies for showing you up there!!!) (I'll show myself out now!!!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: DT is riding the #snowtrain https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/tuesday-730pm-update-on-jan-15-16-east-coast-winter-storm-d46de7f907e8 Regardless the final outcome, I enjoyed DT's last line the best. "And yes there is plenty more activity coming up after this event" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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