WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 48 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Patterning right now is that to the west isn’t happening because cold highs are where they need to be. Yesterday it was a Carolina blizzard and DC zip, now maybe a mixed mess or to the west with rain and 45. This is yet another clear example of present all the outcomes and then claim correctness no matter what happens. Models dont forecast what is The Most Likely outcome. They present examples of what could happen, many and varied. Acceptance of this will decrease angst for those who seek decreased anxiety. Others are perfectly happy with the myriads of wholesale changes every 6 hours and all the varying outcome potentials thereof. The current method provides the best circumstance for confirmation of a verified forecast for continued funding but it doesn’t provide the best possible weather resource information consistently. Gotta be a high powered computer somewhere which can process analog and prevailing pattern info to derive forecasts from. I think much less waffling would come from that. Right now though there is too much resistance to making a forecast and seeing how to stick with it rather than constantly changing. You are super wrong about the current forecast models, but you do have some support on the analog side. There are groups out there that are experimenting with machine learning using a trained data set (the analogs). It’ll be interesting to see how that works out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It’s been 2 runs guys. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Dude, I was on the phone w someone and started laughing. Now they think I’m rude. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Big old banana high. That run was a beatdown waiting to happen. The high is in a similar spot to the GFS. The LP in the south is about 5mb weaker with much less return flow coming from the gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Im not really sure why we have a ridge in central Canada though Been cold so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: You are super wrong about the current forecast models, but you do have some support on the analog side. There are groups out there that are experimenting with machine learning using a trained data set (the analogs). It’ll be interesting to see how that works out. MN Transplant are they using artificial intelligence in the models yet? Or have they been for some time? You'd think that might help some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 24 minutes ago, mappy said: Can you post this daily until, Saturday? lol Put pin in it at the top of the board, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I only recall one case where this was this severe a disparity inside D5 and it was that epic January 2014 or 2015 bust in NYC/SNE on that system that never captured. The ensembles largely never wanted any part of that event but the GFS/GEFS never really did either. It was the Euro and all others selling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 34 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Big old banana high. That run was a beatdown waiting to happen. Strongly agree. Almost Miller A looking way down there in TX with the LP. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: 12z comparison map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Eps? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z EPS low positions look a lot like the GEFS and nothing like the op GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: Comparison to 12z eps is what I meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Trough on 18z EPS is a bit broader so the MSLP is a bit east at 18z compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The MSLP tracks looked okay to me but the snow mean took a fair hit. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 One more photo -- 18z control is similar but less snowy by ~2" for the metro. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Comparison to 12z eps is what I meant Yeah. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: The MSLP tracks looked okay to me but the snow mean took a fair hit. 18z 12z Most of those low tracks would result in very little of a storm here I’d think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The MSLP tracks looked okay to me but the snow mean took a fair hit. 18z 12zSuppression is still my biggest fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Most of those low tracks would result in very little of a storm here I’d think yep -- lot of suppression upon a closer examination. maybe a better problem than a cutter? ens that hit are nice though. feast or famine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Well, I guess the takeaway from the afternoon runs for me are 1) clarity will probably come in about 96 hours, and 2) I’ll be getting an early start to my sleep cycle. Me staying up watching models come in (CMC should finish up around 3am) won’t change one damn thing. I’m already tired of this lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 If you can’t decide whether to worry about suppression or cutter, hopefully it means you’re in a good spot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The MSLP tracks looked okay to me but the snow mean took a fair hit. 18z 12z Suppression is still my biggest fear Same here. I’m not even worried about a cutter. That would still work just fine with that high over NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: If you can’t decide whether to worry about suppression or cutter, hopefully it means you’re in a good spot. Suppression means you get zip. That’s the worst of all outcomes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Most of those low tracks would result in very little of a storm here I’d think Yeah, 12z EPS was better vs 18z. I think its more likely this is suppressed or too far East/OTS than an I-81 runner. Clearly everything is on the table 5 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Not the best run of EPS. The reason for the lower snow mean. Is not because of a west track but rather a lot of weak lows or misses, thus the lower precipitation total means compared to WB 12Z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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