jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: One thing in everyones favor is that strong storms running up the coastal plain are pretty rare. I would think it is either going to run the coast or be west. If it's going to be west it is much more likely to end up a cutter. But that isnt necessarily a complete fail either. We can get a decent front end thump then dryslot with those as well. I just want to give the GFS some kudo's. It has been sniffing around with a MLK storm for over a week now. It hasnt verified yet. But if it does that model has really been improved. So far this winter, it’s been pretty solid in the short, medium, and long range. Not many models you can say that about, if any. Still early on in its existence of course, but the results have been impressive to date. It sniffed out the last 2 storms as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When is the gefs getting the upgrade. They still waiting until the short range fv3 system is ready? There is a plan for a "unified" gfsv17 and gefs13 upgrade. It is still a couple of years down the road but development is happening now. The ensemble upgrade is complicated by the reforecast requirement to provide calibration for subseasonal (and other) products. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, high risk said: This is how it *should* be set up, but it's unfortunately not the case right now with the GEFS. The operational GFS underwent a significant upgrade this past March, including changes to the PBL scheme, radiation, and data assimilation. Those changes were not made to the GEFS. So, even the GEFS control run cannot be considered only a lower-resolution version of the operational GFS. Does that fact that the GEFS members and GFS have larger differences than just resolution explain why no GEFS member looks like the GFS solution? Impossible to say.... Oh wow. Thank you for this man! I haven't been paying nearly as much attention to things like that last few years. Didn't realize this and yes, this does make a big difference in the way I look at model runs with storms now. Maybe I'll just do what it says to do on page 3 of the weenie handbook and hug the snowiest model and toss everything else. We're on a heater anyways. . 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Patterning right now is that to the west isn’t happening because cold highs are where they need to be. Yesterday it was a Carolina blizzard and DC zip, now maybe a mixed mess or to the west with rain and 45. This is yet another clear example of present all the outcomes and then claim correctness no matter what happens. Models dont forecast what is The Most Likely outcome. They present examples of what could happen, many and varied. Acceptance of this will decrease angst for those who seek decreased anxiety. Others are perfectly happy with the myriads of wholesale changes every 6 hours and all the varying outcome potentials thereof. The current method provides the best circumstance for confirmation of a verified forecast for continued funding but it doesn’t provide the best possible weather resource information consistently. Gotta be a high powered computer somewhere which can process analog and prevailing pattern info to derive forecasts from. I think much less waffling would come from that. Right now though there is too much resistance to making a forecast and seeing how to stick with it rather than constantly changing. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can’t remember a time all 3 had this stark a difference in the same way across all 3. Same. I was kind of wondering if the ensemble members were "chasing" the Op, but if that was the case, you'd expect the 18z GEFS to have looked at least more like the 12z Op (not that 12z and 18z looked that different). But nope...still almost entirely offshore. In general, this is still 5-6 days away, so ensemble means should be where to put your $$. But we have time to see if that's a bad bet. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Seriously though, it looks like the difference from 12z is like 25 miles??? Not sure why the reaction is this. Dude you live back in the hills. You had/have room. We don’t. It’s all relative. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Same. I was kind of wondering if the ensemble members were "chasing" the Op, but if that was the case, you'd expect the 18z GEFS to have looked at least more like the 12z Op (not that 12z and 18z looked that different). But nope...still almost entirely offshore. In general, this is still 5-6 days away, so ensemble means should be where to put your $$. But we have time to see if that's a bad bet. I suppose there is a possibility it’s just random chance. I tend to think there is some causality here but it’s not impossible it’s just a fluke that all 3 operational ended up western outliers. Unlikely but not impossible and given enough chances even unlikely eventually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Dude you live back in the hills. You had/have room. We don’t. It’s all relative. To be fair, no one should be flipping out either in panic or celebration 4.5 days away. If we see the same exact results on the models for multiple days, then take things more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Patterning right now is that to the west isn’t happening because cold highs are where they need to be. Yesterday it was a Carolina blizzard and DC zip, now maybe a mixed mess or to the west with rain and 45. This is yet another clear example of present all the outcomes and then claim correctness no matter what happens. Models dont forecast what is The Most Likely outcome. They present examples of what could happen, many and varied. Acceptance of this will decrease angst for those who seek decreased anxiety. Others are perfectly happy with the myriads of wholesale changes every 6 hours and all the varying outcome potentials thereof. The current method provides the best circumstance for confirmation of a verified forecast for continued funding but it doesn’t provide the best possible weather resource information consistently. Gotta be a high powered computer somewhere which can process analog and prevailing pattern info to derive forecasts from. I think much less waffling would come from that. Right now though there is too much resistance to making a forecast and seeing how to stick with it rather than constantly changing. In many ways, the angst and anticipation is the excitement to the event. That infamous storm from 21 years ago still makes us bitter, but the ebbs and flows of the experience make this hobby worthwhile to us weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, dtk said: GEFS mean scores are statistically better than deterministic GFS for the medium range....but that has to come with all kinds of caveats (e.g. domain/temporally averaged, not necessarily applicable to individual events, etc.). Really appreciate the insight here from you and the rest of the Mets. The discourse over the past several pages has been quite informative. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Maybe I'll just do what it says to do on page 3 of the weenie handbook and hug the snowiest model and toss everything else. We're on a heater anyways. That’s my usual process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I can’t remember a time all 3 had this stark a difference in the same way across all 3. Yeah man, this is odd. Haven't had a chance to look at everything but the rip and read shows something strange under the hood on this one. This isn't that far out in time to have the big 3 global ops and ens disconnect. Especially the same way? For now I'm going to keep it simple. Just get the shield here somehow some way. Cold is here. On the move but plenty of cold for front side something. Seems premature to be worrying about a narrow 20" stripe of digital snow from a storm that could end up anywhere still 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB 18Z GFS yesterday compared to today. Who knows what it will be like by 18Z tomorrow… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Steve25 said: To be fair, no one should be flipping out either in panic or celebration 4.5 days away. If we see the same exact results on the models for multiple days, then take things more seriously. But that’s the thing. No one is flipping out or dying expecting this to be the ultimate solution. I’m analyzing and commenting on each model run. That’s it 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Euro folks??. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I’m thinking of the storm a week ago. The GFS had it a week ahead, then lost it, only to get it back 2 days ahead, then stuck verbatim and we got a good storm. Next few days could be rough but lets not write this thing off from run to run oscillation. There’s definitely something going on with the op vs ensembles but no clue what. Remember thst data for this storm is originating out over the pacific now - mostly satellite derived data which is less accurate than ground stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Euro folks?? . 19:50 I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Euro folks??.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eu&pkg=asnow&runtime=2022011118&fh=216 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: 19:50 I believe Positive signs so far. The ocean storm slower to move out of the way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Per alan 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB EURO HR 90 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 If the run would've went out further, the 18z euro would have been a bit further east vs the 18z gfs. It was clear early on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Big old banana high. That run was a beatdown waiting to happen. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said: If the run would've went out further, the 18z euro would have been a bit further east vs the 18z gfs. It was clear early on. Potentially a bit further east downstream, but almost identical placement at h90 on the h5 low and where it closes off. Heights a bit lower in the west initially on the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The position and strength of the Canadian high is much better on the op run of the 18z Euro than the GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: Guys, it's a deterministic at Day 6. Yes, as it shows, it would be an I-81 special and people east of Rt 15 would get a driving sleet/rain before changing back. There's too many variables on the table to decipher before pegging any particular solution. There could even be a piece that's not even modeled that could throw another variable into the mix. Welcome to the world of chaos with a dynamic fluid that is the atmosphere. Can you post this daily until, Saturday? lol 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: The position and strength of the Canadian high is much better on the op run of the 18z Euro than the GFS. Beautiful sprawling banana (ravensrule stay away dawg) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 28 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS yesterday compared to today. Who knows what it will be like by 18Z tomorrow… Montana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The position and strength of the Canadian high is much better on the op run of the 18z Euro than the GFS. Getting held in place by the ‘ocean bomb cyclone storm of the century hide your kids hide your wife’ storm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Getting held in place by the ‘ocean bomb cyclone storm of the century hide your kids hide your wife’ storm 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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